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Where will Brian Matusz finish in the ROY voting?  

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  1. 1. Where will Brian Matusz finish in the ROY voting?



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While it's been an up and down rookie season for Brian Matusz, he's ending it on a really good note. He's been rock solid in August and September after a disastrous July, and barring something happening between now and Saturday, will finish the season.

So now a simple question, where will Brian finish in ROY voting? The Orioles haven't had a player get a vote for the award since Nick Markakis in 2006, including last season with all the promotions. I don't believe Brian will win the award, but I would be surprised if he doesn't finish in the top 5. The 2010 rookie class doesn't really jump out at me, both offensively and pitching, and I think that elevates Brian's standing. At the same time, Brian has been one of the top rookie starters in the AL this season:

1st in games started

1st in innings pitched

1st in strikeouts

Tied for 2nd in wins (with a losing record)

1st in WHIP

2nd in ERA

1st in quality starts

Like I said, I don't expect Brian to win the award. In fact, I would be stunned if he did. My guess is it goes to Neftali Feliz, because he's been pretty sick this season as a 22 year old rookie on a division winner. But the numbers are there for Brian, minus his win-loss record, and outside of Wade Davis no other starter has stood out the way Matusz has.

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Offensively it pretty much comes down to:

Brennan Boesch

Austin Jackson

Pitching:

Brian Matusz

Wade Davis

Neftali Feliz

The only other pitcher off the top of my head you could throw in there is Mitch Talbot of Cleveland, as he's made roughly the same number of starts as Davis, but thrown less innings, is a year older, and his WHIP and ERA are worse.

There is little reason to believe Matusz can't, or won't place in the Top 5. Even if you feel his performance this season didn't match your expectations or the hype, this is not a good rookie class. This is definitely not the 2006 class.

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Almost forgot about WAR totals. I know it's a bit unfair to compare pitchers and positional players, but just for giggles:

Matusz: 3.0

Jackson: 2.8

Feliz: 2.3

Boesch: 1.8

Davis: 1.6

Why is it unfair to compare pitchers to positional players? If WAR does what it is designed to do, it should be apples to apples.

I find it odd that Matusz could rank so far ahead of Davis.

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Why is it unfair to compare pitchers to positional players? If WAR does what it is designed to do, it should be apples to apples.

I find it odd that Matusz could rank so far ahead of Davis.

Age old debate of pitch every five days versus playing every day argument I suppose. I'm still learning about WAR, so there's still a lot about it I'm not familiar with.

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Why is it unfair to compare pitchers to positional players? If WAR does what it is designed to do, it should be apples to apples.

Yep.

I find it odd that Matusz could rank so far ahead of Davis.

Well, Matusz has a FIP that is 3/4 of a run lower than that of Davis. Their xFIPs are only about a quarter of a run different, though.

FWIW, the numbers posted above were from Baseball-Reference. Fangraphs has Matusz at 2.4 WAR and Wade Davis' WAR at 0.9. The relationships stay the same for the most part, but BR's numbers seem a bit inflated.

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This was from Sept 9:

Chris Fiegler (Latham,NY)

Who do you think will win the AL & the NL Rookie of the Year?

Klaw (1:23 PM)

Will win: Austin Jackson, Jason Heyward. Should win: Heyward or Posey would both be solid choices in the NL, but the AL ... I might vote for Matusz.

And along the same lines, from the 21st:

Scott (FL)

Feeling any better about Matusz as your RoY pick after his string of recent starts against al east foes?

Rob Neyer (12:51 PM)

Yeah, a lot better. My mistake was in predicting that a pitcher would win the award, not that Matusz would eventually pitch well for the Orioles.

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The Orioles haven't had a player get a vote for the award since Nick Markakis in 2006, including last season with all the promotions.

I was really surprised that Reimold didn't even get a vote last season. I certainly would've had him ahead of Beckham at least.

As for Matusz, I've got him second behind Jackson. No chance he finishes outside the top 5 IMO.

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I was really surprised that Reimold didn't even get a vote last season. I certainly would've had him ahead of Beckham at least.

As for Matusz, I've got him second behind Jackson. No chance he finishes outside the top 5 IMO.

I think if Bergesen had not gotten hurt he might have at least gotten a vote.

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Top four, top five, does it really matter? That really isn't anything all that oustanding from the top rated pitcher taken in his draft class.

Honestly this might be you dumbest position to date. Any idea when the other guys were drafted and where are all the guys drafted before him and higher than him from prior years? I think they should have given it to Price again because he is just that good. As a matter of fact he should get ROY every year until he retires.

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