A's claim Encarnacion off waivers from the Blue Jays (Kouzmanoff on the market?)

[RVAbird]

I hope this isn't a dig at me, I'm certainly not endorsing the saying, just pointing it out so the baseball iconoclasts can tear it down! I completely agree that defense is a wildly varying component of a player's value.

Nope, not at all! Just can't help but rant sometimes.

[Sports Guy]

Whether you want to say Reynolds is below average or average defensively, either way I don't think he is some butcher out there and he isn't going to kill us defensively.

I think it is probably fair to label him slightly below average defensively.

[RVAbird]

Whether you want to say Reynolds is below average or average defensively, either way I don't think he is some butcher out there and he isn't going to kill us defensively.

I think it is probably fair to label him slightly below average defensively.

I'd say that's about right. His four year average between UZR, Total Zone, and BIS is -5.8. He seems to be getting better rather than worse and he is in his athletic peak. Not a good defender but not a guy who will kill you. Lots of upside with the bat. I like him.

[El Gordo]

You are twisting my words around. I never said I am not betting on him to bounce back offensively.

I'm going to reproduce the sentence and you tell me if there's something about it with which you take umbrage.

If Kouz produces in 2011 like he did in 2010, he will not be league average.

My entire post was not an attempt to deride Kouz, but to place caution on valuing production from guys who live by their gloves. This is because there will be great variance among metrics regarding just how much defensive value is provided. While the UZR-tied Fangraphs will tell you Kouz has been worth an average of 2.6 wins over the last 4 years, Baseball-Reference will tell you he's been worth an average of 1.5.

With a 95 percent confidence interval, you can really only say Kouz was worth 2.05 + or - 1.2 WAR in 2009. There's simply more variance and a larger margin of error when defense is composing a large chunk of a player's WAR.

I put more confidence in the FB numbers than you do. I think if Kouz produces offensively the same as he did last season, his glove would still make him league average. His glove was 2 W's above average and his bat was 1 W below.

[RVAbird]

I put more confidence in the FB numbers than you do. I think if Kouz produces offensively the same as he did last season, his glove would still make him league average. His glove was 2 W's above average and his bat was 1 W below.

How much confidence do you have in the bolded? How often do you think a player has saved 20 runs with his glove in one season?

I'm just curious, do you have a compelling reason to consider FB an authority above other current defensive metrics?

I'm not trying to be condescending or snooty. I think this is an important discussion.

[El Gordo]

Whether you want to say Reynolds is below average or average defensively, either way I don't think he is some butcher out there and he isn't going to kill us defensively.

I think it is probably fair to label him slightly below average defensively.

The thing about Reynolds is if you take away the HR what do you have? A below average glove, a meh OBP at best, in spite of a lot of walks and a high P/PA, and a ton of K's, a lot of cans of corn FB, and a lot of pop ups. How many of those K's, cans of corn, and pop ups, are productive outs?

[Sports Guy]

The thing about Reynolds is if you take away the HR what do you have? A below average glove, a meh OBP at best, in spite of a lot of walks and a high P/PA, and a ton of K's, a lot of cans of corn FB, and a lot of pop ups. How many of those K's, cans of corn, and pop ups, are productive outs?

He has a career 817 OPS with a career 334 OBP. Kouz has a career 746 OPS and 312 OBP.

Kouz has a walk rate of 4.6% vs Reynolds' 11.4%(career numbers). Kouz does have a betetr career BA but its still not good.

Now, don't get me wrong, I was one of the few who wanted us to get Kouz last year and I would still be happy to get him...I would prefer other options over him, including Reynolds, but I think he is a good option nonetheless.

You seem to be putting a lot into what Reynolds did last year...Maybe its a trend or maybe its just a bad year...Looking at his numbers, I personally feel he got infatuated with the home run and if you can correct that mindset, he should be fine.

The K's don't really bother me since he doesn't really ground into a lot of DPs.

He isn't a perfect player by any means but he is a third baseman that is very likely to be above league average and give us some much needed power in the bottom portion of the lineup. He is signed to a very reasonable contract and is still young. He also isn't going to take much to acquire.

[RVAbird]

The thing about Reynolds is if you take away the HR what do you have? A below average glove, a meh OBP at best, in spite of a lot of walks and a high P/PA, and a ton of K's, a lot of cans of corn FB, and a lot of pop ups. How many of those K's, cans of corn, and pop ups, are productive outs?

It's tough to measure the productiveness of outs, but plenty of flyballs advance runners and lead to RBIs. The most productive out, save for maybe a well-executed bunt, is a long fly ball.

Reynolds has his warts. Most players do. Conventional baseball men would prefer an average third baseman who plays respectable defense and hits .270/.330/.420, but at the end of the day Reynolds is just as valuable.

I agree that people who ignore defense and look for HRs to measure their players will overrate Reynolds. But people who take certain defensive evaluations as indisputable fact and think that a player has to follow a certain path to be valuable will underrate him.

I think he's worth David Hernandez and a 2/13 with an option deal.

[El Gordo]

He has a career 817 OPS with a career 334 OBP. Kouz has a career 746 OPS and 312 OBP.

Kouz has a walk rate of 4.6% vs Reynolds' 11.4%(career numbers). Kouz does have a betetr career BA but its still not good.

Now, don't get me wrong, I was one of the few who wanted us to get Kouz last year and I would still be happy to get him...I would prefer other options over him, including Reynolds, but I think he is a good option nonetheless.

You seem to be putting a lot into what Reynolds did last year...Maybe its a trend or maybe its just a bad year...Looking at his numbers, I personally feel he got infatuated with the home run and if you can correct that mindset, he should be fine.

The K's don't really bother me since he doesn't really ground into a lot of DPs.

He isn't a perfect player by any means but he is a third baseman that is very likely to be above league average and give us some much needed power in the bottom portion of the lineup. He is signed to a very reasonable contract and is still young. He also isn't going to take much to acquire.

I see the same thing and it's a big if to me. I don't put as much stock in the OBP because 2 years he had a .349, that OK, but 2 years he had a .320, and with the 200 K's he has every year, that's not OK. Which guy are we getting and how readily will he want to change? And he will now be facing pitching in the AL East. At least I can be confident Kouz will give me + D at 3B.

[McNulty]

I would try to pry away Gordon Beckham and Alex Gordon.

Beckham had a down season last year, and his value might be low enough to convince Kenny Williams to trade him. I'd put him at shortstop this year and see what he can do there. If he doesn't have the defensive chops for the position (or outgrows it with age), there's always second base (when BRob's contract is up), or third base. But shortstops are so hard to find, I'd give him every opportunity this year there. Perhaps Scott and Guthrie are enough? Never can tell with the White Sox. But I'd be willing to add more. I saw Beckham play in college and I'm a big believer in him being a perennial All-Star infielder. Kevin Goldstein gushs over him all the time as well.

I'd then try to package Pie to KC for Gordon. If that doesn't work, I'd try to pry away Mark Reynolds. Reimold and Hernandez for him maybe?

That takes care of our two hardest positions to fill. It also didn't involve trading any top pitching prospects or any of our best positional players. If Beckham isn't available, I'd try to sign Nishioka/Hardy/Bartlett depending on preference/availability/contract demands.

For first base, Derrek Lee would be my first choice, although the Type A status deters me a bit. But he's the best option for our needs, and has a very good chance to bounce back.

I'd try to sign VMart too, but I wouldn't go more than 4 years for him. I'm interested in exploring the combinations between him and Wieters that can occur (DH, C, 1B).

Lastly, I'm all for bringing back Izturis as the utility infielder. Same for Wiggy as a bench bat that can play all over the place and has some pop.

The bullpen is weak, and needs to be addressed, but I'd get a bunch of live, cheap arms into camp and let them sort it out through competition. In fact, I'd do this every year.

Ideally, my lineup would look like this:

Roberts

Markakis

VMart

Lee

Beckham

Jones

Wieters

Gordon

Reimold/Pie (or whoever, there are multiple ways to fill LF cheaply on the market)

Rotate Lee/VMart between DH/1B, and Wieters/VMart between DH and C.

Trading Guthrie would leave us, possibly, a bit short in the rotation. I like Kuroda or Kawakami. Someone to eat innings.

Overall, this involves two trades and two big contracts. It would increase payroll by about 30-35 million per year from where we are right now. I think we can do it and succeed.

[RVAbird]

I see the same thing and it's a big if to me. I don't put as much stock in the OBP because 2 years he had a .349, that OK, but 2 years he had a .320, and with the 200 K's he has every year, that's not OK. Which guy are we getting and how readily will he want to change? And he will now be facing pitching in the AL East. At least I can be confident Kouz will give me + D at 3B.

I don't mean to press...but, can you be?

I mean, according to UZR, Kouz has only provided plus D (let's say, +10) in one season, while providing technically below average defense in one of his four full seasons. In that one plus season in the eyes of UZR, Total Zone rated him only +4. Total Zone has also had him technically below average in 2 of his 4 seasons and never above +7.

I think this goes back to needing compelling evidence to accept FB numbers as fact and to completely discard other currently credible metrics.

[El Gordo]

It's tough to measure the productiveness of outs, but plenty of flyballs advance runners and lead to RBIs. The most productive out, save for maybe a well-executed bunt, is a long fly ball.

Reynolds has his warts. Most players do. Conventional baseball men would prefer an average third baseman who plays respectable defense and hits .270/.330/.420, but at the end of the day Reynolds is just as valuable.

I agree that people who ignore defense and look for HRs to measure their players will overrate Reynolds. But people who take certain defensive evaluations as indisputable fact and think that a player has to follow a certain path to be valuable will underrate him.

I think he's worth David Hernandez and a 2/13 with an option deal.

Oh, I would trade him even up for DH. But people are for giving up a lot more, and that's where I balk. You question the defensive metrics, so you are willing to ingnore the ones that don't support your arguement and accept the ones that make him a pallatable league average. The problem is all of them show him below LA. I see two years of .320 OBP and 4 years of 200 K's. As to productive outs, I would say any out that is 6 P/PA or more, is productive and any out that advances a runner. Extra points for outs that drive in runs. It would be interesting to know how many of Reynolds K's were 6 or more P/PA and how many of his popups, and cans of corn advanced a runner. He has been hitting fewer LD and GB every year since he has been a MLer and more FB and IFFB with less FB/HR %.

[Sports Guy]

I see the same thing and it's a big if to me. I don't put as much stock in the OBP because 2 years he had a .349, that OK, but 2 years he had a .320, and with the 200 K's he has every year, that's not OK. Which guy are we getting and how readily will he want to change? And he will now be facing pitching in the AL East. At least I can be confident Kouz will give me + D at 3B.

Oh ok..Well, i don't put much stock in the FB numbers or that K's mean much.

So, I guess there is no point in discussing this?

I mean, what a pointless thing to say...You bring up a meh OBP but yet you want to discount 2 years of a 349 OPS? What is the point of even discussing this with you if you are going to discount a solid number in a category that you feel is important?

[Sports Guy]

I would try to pry away Gordon Beckham and Alex Gordon.

Beckham had a down season last year, and his value might be low enough to convince Kenny Williams to trade him. I'd put him at shortstop this year and see what he can do there. If he doesn't have the defensive chops for the position (or outgrows it with age), there's always second base (when BRob's contract is up), or third base. But shortstops are so hard to find, I'd give him every opportunity this year there. Perhaps Scott and Guthrie are enough? Never can tell with the White Sox. But I'd be willing to add more. I saw Beckham play in college and I'm a big believer in him being a perennial All-Star infielder. Kevin Goldstein gushs over him all the time as well.

I'd then try to package Pie to KC for Gordon. If that doesn't work, I'd try to pry away Mark Reynolds. Reimold and Hernandez for him maybe?

That takes care of our two hardest positions to fill. It also didn't involve trading any top pitching prospects or any of our best positional players. If Beckham isn't available, I'd try to sign Nishioka/Hardy/Bartlett depending on preference/availability/contract demands.

For first base, Derrek Lee would be my first choice, although the Type A status deters me a bit. But he's the best option for our needs, and has a very good chance to bounce back.

I'd try to sign VMart too, but I wouldn't go more than 4 years for him. I'm interested in exploring the combinations between him and Wieters that can occur (DH, C, 1B).

Lastly, I'm all for bringing back Izturis as the utility infielder. Same for Wiggy as a bench bat that can play all over the place and has some pop.

The bullpen is weak, and needs to be addressed, but I'd get a bunch of live, cheap arms into camp and let them sort it out through competition. In fact, I'd do this every year.

Ideally, my lineup would look like this:

Roberts

Markakis

VMart

Lee

Beckham

Jones

Wieters

Gordon

Reimold/Pie (or whoever, there are multiple ways to fill LF cheaply on the market)

Rotate Lee/VMart between DH/1B, and Wieters/VMart between DH and C.

Trading Guthrie would leave us, possibly, a bit short in the rotation. I like Kuroda or Kawakami. Someone to eat innings.

Overall, this involves two trades and two big contracts. It would increase payroll by about 30-35 million per year from where we are right now. I think we can do it and succeed.

Beckham and Gordon are 2 great targets for us.

The thing about this offseason is that there does seem to be a lot of 3+ service time guys that we could get in trade, which is unusual.

Also, there are just a ton of options overall....So many ways to go that mke a lot of sense.

Anything short of AM making some major changes should mean him getting canned.

[McNulty]

Beckham and Gordon are 2 great targets for us.

The thing about this offseason is that there does seem to be a lot of 3+ service time guys that we could get in trade, which is unusual.

Also, there are just a ton of options overall....So many ways to go that mke a lot of sense.

Anything short of AM making some major changes should mean him getting canned.

I agree. On the surface, it doesn't look like there's much to be had. But if you get aggressive, there are options available. First base is easy to solve (on the FA market). 3B and SS will determine, for me, if AM should stay or go. I'm right on the fence this offseason about him. Wigginton at third or Izturis at SS is an automatic fail.