Did MacPhail mess up on Beato?

[skanar]

He is the kind of guy most likely to be lost (relief pitcher, hard thrower, upper minors) in the Rule 5, but it's hard not to trust AM on this particular issue, at least, given his track record.

[wildcard]

Viola is left-handed and actually has some very good stuff. Command is his biggest problem.

Beato is an interesting case because the few times I saw him, he looked very ordinary, but his numbers were very good. If Steve Johnson was taken last year, I could see Beato being taken this year, but it would depend on the scout that saw him. The guys I talked to about him thought he was ordinary, nothing special, so I'm pretty sure those teams won't be looking at him.

For me, he's a lot like Frank Mata, a useful guy to have in the system but not anyone that's not replaceable.

I would keep 24 year old Beato over Lebron, Fox or Viola. Viola at 27 has never even pitched well at AAA much less the majors. That says organizational player to me.

[allstar1579]

I would keep 24 year old Beato over Lebron, Fox or Viola. Viola at 27 has never even pitched well at AAA much less the majors. That says organizational player to me.

Yes but he more than likely won't be kept either. You don't look at it as keep this guy, risk this guy, you say, we need to clear 8 spaces this offseason (or however many spaces they want to clear for whatever reason).

[NCRaven]

Even if Beato were added, he would probably one of the first ones to be taken off when free agents were added, so why risk him being claimed and kept on a 40 man roster when you can keep him in the minors and if he is claimed in the Rule 5, there is a good chance you get him back.

If you look at this way, he's actually more protected off the 40-man than on right now.

People complaining about these decisions don't seem to understand this very basic fact about how the roster, Rule 5, and waiver rules work in cases like this. It's not just about the possibility of losing them now, when there's a very good chance that they won't be picked or won't stick for a full season, as with Johnson last year. It's about the possibility that you might lose them later when they've enhanced their value to other teams.

In the worst case, you've lost a fringe relief candidate when you still have guys like Hernandez, Jim Johnson, Vendenhurk, Mickolio, Klein, and quite a few others that can fill the same role in our system. If middle relievers are a dime a dozen, what are middle relief prospects?

[sangar]

Agreed. Nice point by CrazySilver.

Yep, he explained it to me a couple of days ago and it adds a lot of perspective.

[wildcard]

That would depend on Lebron's health status. If Lebron is supposed to be at full strength sometime this spring, there is no way I'd take Beato over him. Lebron has the stuff to pitch in the majors and dominate in the minors. Look at what Lebron did last year at Bowie and compare it to what Beato did. The Orioles are protecting Hoey for the same reason, stuff.

Yes, but Hoey was off the 40 man roster while recovering from arm problems. He didn't need to be protected then and probably neither does Lebron. Isn't this his second arm surgery and he didn't pitch at all last year. He will be 26 before opening day. I don't think anyone takes him in the Rule 5 draft or on waivers if he is DFA'd.

However, Beato could be gone by not protecting him.

[wildcard]

In the worst case, you've lost a fringe relief candidate when you still have guys like Hernandez, Jim Johnson, Vendenhurk, Mickolio, Klein, and quite a few others that can fill the same role in our system. If middle relievers are a dime a dozen, what are middle relief prospects?

Your case is pretty weak here. The O's need at least 5 righthanded relievers in the pen. Maybe six if MacPhail doesn't sign another lefty. Plus he needs at least two in the minors for help out during the year for injuries. That is 7 or 8 right handed relievers total.

Johnson, Hernandez and Albers are locks to make the team if they are still with the team but there has been a lot of talk about trading one or more.

VandenHurk looked shaky in Sept and might not even make the team.

Simon is still recovering from surgery and was not a full strength in the 2nd half. We hope he is better next year but there is no guarantee.

Mickolio is a maybe. Pitched poor last year and regain his effectiveness in the AFL but that is like going to AA.

Ebre and Lebron - Hurt.

Berken - recovery from labrum problems.

Hoey's pitches were always straight as an arrow when last we saw him.

Spoone - still trying to find his control after TJ surgery.

Koji is not even on the team and was not offered arbitration.

So the O's have 3 guy that should make the team if they are not traded and a bunch of maybes. And the team need 7 or 8.

So throwing away Beato would not be the smartest move.

[DrungoHazewood]

Your case is pretty weak here. The O's need at least 5 righthanded relievers in the pen. Maybe six if MacPhail doesn't sign another lefty. Plus he needs at least two in the minors for help out during the year for injuries. That is 7 or 8 right handed relievers total.

Johnson, Hernandez and Albers are locks to make the team if they are still with the team but there has been a lot of talk about trading one or more.

VandenHurk looked shaky in Sept and might not even make the team.

Simon is still recovering from surgery and was not a full strength in the 2nd half. We hope he is better next year but there is no guarantee.

Mickolio is a maybe. Pitched poor last year and regain his effectiveness in the AFL but that is like going to AA.

Ebre and Lebron - Hurt.

Berken - recovery from labrum problems.

Hoey's pitches were always straight as an arrow when last we saw him.

Spoone - still trying to find his control after TJ surgery.

Koji is not even on the team and was not offered arbitration.

So the O's have 3 guy that should make the team if they are not traded and a bunch of maybes. And the team need 7 or 8.

So throwing away Beato would not be the smartest move.

That would be a legitimate point if you had any reason to believe that Beato was on the verge of being a useful major league reliever. I see little or nothing to elevate him above 500 other random AA arms.

[Frobby]

That would be a legitimate point if you had any reason to believe that Beato was on the verge of being a useful major league reliever. I see little or nothing to elevate him above 500 other random AA arms.

Tony has Beato 25th on our prospect list. That sounds about right to me. Steve Johnson was ranked 17th last year when he got selected in the Rule 5. I think because Beato is a reliever there is some chance he could be picked, as it is easier for a reliever to skip AAA and be useful in the majors. But I'm not losing sleep over it.

[Tony-OH]

Yes, but Hoey was off the 40 man roster while recovering from arm problems. He didn't need to be protected then and probably neither does Lebron. Isn't this his second arm surgery and he didn't pitch at all last year. He will be 26 before opening day. I don't think anyone takes him in the Rule 5 draft or on waivers if he is DFA'd.

However, Beato could be gone by not protecting him.

I bet LeBron is one of the first to be removed from the 40-man when they need room.

[Tony-OH]

So throwing away Beato would not be the smartest move.

Where do you get that we are throwing Beato away? First off, a team would have to take him and then keep him on the big league all-year. Why would you do that when there are about 200 other Beato's in the minor league leagues? You know what, Diaz might be 320 pounds, but I liked his stuff better and the only reason he's not on the top 30 list is because the Orioles haven't resigned him yet and baseball in general seem to dislike overweight pitchers, even if they throw 97 MPH like Diaz.

Beato is a slightly younger version than Frank Mata and we just designated him and no one grabbed him. Maybe Beato can become a useful major league arm, but he's not the guy you worry about losing in the Rule 5 draft because if you do, you just sign another Mata to replace him.

[wildcard]

Where do you get that we are throwing Beato away? First off, a team would have to take him and then keep him on the big league all-year. Why would you do that when there are about 200 other Beato's in the minor league leagues? You know what, Diaz might be 320 pounds, but I liked his stuff better and the only reason he's not on the top 30 list is because the Orioles haven't resigned him yet and baseball in general seem to dislike overweight pitchers, even if they throw 97 MPH like Diaz.

Beato is a slightly younger version than Frank Mata and we just designated him and no one grabbed him. Maybe Beato can become a useful major league arm, but he's not the guy you worry about losing in the Rule 5 draft because if you do, you just sign another Mata to replace him.

Tony, you are much more well informed on this then I am, but can you really name a 23/24 year old righthanded reliever that has pitched to a 2.11 ERA or better at AA or higher that is available to the O's for nothing?

Mata and Diaz both have flaws that put them behind Beato in the pecking order.

I am so tired of this relievers are a dime a dozen argument I could scream. If they are so easy to get why do the O's have only three solid righthanded relievers on their roster?

The Tigers just paid $5M a year for Benoit. Most of the Type A or B relievers on the FA list will get at least $3M per year and some will get multi year contracts. The O's sign Ohman for 1m+ because he was coming off a injury and might fail. Now he will get more this year. The O's sign Hendrickson for 1M+ and he put up a 5.00 ERA. No one should be surprised at that.

If you want a decent reliever you have to pay for him or grow him. That is what the O's are in the process of doing with Beato. If he is not picked out of their system. Yes, he is not a finished product. That is why he is in the minors.

[DrungoHazewood]

Tony, you are much more well informed on this then I am, but can you really name a 23/24 year old righthanded reliever that has pitched to a 2.11 ERA or better at AA or higher that is available to the O's for nothing?

1) You're assuming that 2.11 ERA represents his true ability. In general things like HR rate, K rate, and K:BB ratio are better indicators of a guy's future, and Beato's other rate stats aren't as impressive as that ERA would indicate.

2) Every organization has Beato-like players that aren't on the 40-man. There are literally hundreds of players with his general profile. Heck Steve Johnson had better peripherals than Beato, and he was a starter who's a year younger. Move him to the pen and he's immediately a better prospect.

[allstar1579]

Tony, you are much more well informed on this then I am, but can you really name a 23/24 year old righthanded reliever that has pitched to a 2.11 ERA or better at AA or higher that is available to the O's for nothing?

Mata and Diaz both have flaws that put them behind Beato in the pecking order.

I am so tired of this relievers are a dime a dozen argument I could scream. If they are so easy to get why do the O's have only three solid righthanded relievers on their roster?

The Tigers just paid $5M a year for Benoit. Most of the Type A or B relievers on the FA list will get at least $3M per year and some will get multi year contracts. The O's sign Ohman for 1m+ because he was coming off a injury and might fail. Now he will get more this year. The O's sign Hendrickson for 1M+ and he put up a 5.00 ERA. No one should be surprised at that.

If you want a decent reliever you have to pay for him or grow him. That is what the O's are in the process of doing with Beato. If he is not picked out of their system. Yes, he is not a finished product. That is why he is in the minors.

Sorry man, Beato just really isn't that good. Speaking as someone who has seen him 15-20 times in person, he's just ok.

Keep in mind you are comparing successful ML RP to a failed starter turned RP in AA.

Just like last year when I told people that S. Johnson was no big loss and got lambasted for it, I'll say that Beato would also be no big loss and wouldn't survive an entire year in a ML bullpen.

[Tony-OH]

Tony, you are much more well informed on this then I am, but can you really name a 23/24 year old righthanded reliever that has pitched to a 2.11 ERA or better at AA or higher that is available to the O's for nothing?

Mata and Diaz both have flaws that put them behind Beato in the pecking order.

I am so tired of this relievers are a dime a dozen argument I could scream. If they are so easy to get why do the O's have only three solid righthanded relievers on their roster?

The Tigers just paid $5M a year for Benoit. Most of the Type A or B relievers on the FA list will get at least $3M per year and some will get multi year contracts. The O's sign Ohman for 1m+ because he was coming off a injury and might fail. Now he will get more this year. The O's sign Hendrickson for 1M+ and he put up a 5.00 ERA. No one should be surprised at that.

If you want a decent reliever you have to pay for him or grow him. That is what the O's are in the process of doing with Beato. If he is not picked out of their system. Yes, he is not a finished product. That is why he is in the minors.

You can't just use his ERA and age as the only factors when evaluating a prospect. Beato's stuff just isn't that dominating and that's why his K/9 was for ordinary. If he was a groundball guy (he's not), than the lack of K's might not be a problem, but he just doesn't miss enough bats and primarility that's because he doesn't have that great of stuff.

He's a decent arm to have in the system, but he's not a guy to protect in my opinion. As bad as Viola's command looked in Norfolk and Baltimore, there are a lot less guys who have his stuff then Beato's. Either way, I have Beato ranked over Viola because of Viola's lack of command, but why risk Viola when it would take a team to keep Beato on their major league roster all year to lose him?