Mark Reynolds vs. Garrett Atkins

[SrMeowMeow]

Wow, and I thought I was funny. League average in 2010 for a 3B was .261 .315 .414 .729. I'd be happy for the .780 OPS and 35 HR.

Check out his 2008 and 2010 seasons. 778 and 753 OPS, both with exactly .320 OBP. He was worth 1.4 and 2.4 WAR, with a corresponding 12 run swing in his defense accounting for most of his value. A league average defending 2008 Reynolds (778 OPS) would have been 2.5 WAR, and a league average defending 2010 Reynolds (753 OPS) would have been 2.2 WAR. So give Reynolds -7 defense (his career UZR/150) and a bump for offense being more scarce now than in 2008, and...you're right around 2-2.5 WAR. An average player.

Seriously, put your snark on hold until you know what you're talking about.

[DrungoHazewood]

You need to spend more time on Commedia Hangout. Over there, when El Gordo is losing an argument, he calls the other poster "Cesar Izturis" and they have no idea what he's talking about.

Oh man..this made me bust out laughing. Can't give you any more rep, yet.

Yea, Frobby's is hands-down the post of the thread!

[Jersey O's fan]

I'm really worried that all the strikeout numbers have gotten in his head. The guy had a 40hr/20sb season and all the casual baseball fan would know is about how much he stikes out. I mean this guy was on places that never even talk about baseball all because of how many times he was striking out.

I think he made a decision not to strikeout as much last year, and he hasn't been the same since. Give me back the .220 40hr guy who strikes out 200+. Right now he's on pace to only K 160 times.

It actually made me happy the other day when he struck out 3 times. That's his game.

Here's an article I came across that shows that he did change his approach. People like to say it was about the injuries last year and it wasn't.

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/2010/09/15/20100915arizona-diamondbacks-notes-reynolds.html

[El Gordo]

Check out his 2008 and 2010 seasons. 778 and 753 OPS, both with exactly .320 OBP. He was worth 1.4 and 2.4 WAR, with a corresponding 12 run swing in his defense accounting for most of his value. A league average defending 2008 Reynolds (778 OPS) would have been 2.5 WAR, and a league average defending 2010 Reynolds (753 OPS) would have been 2.2 WAR. So give Reynolds -7 defense (his career UZR/150) and a bump for offense being more scarce now than in 2008, and...you're right around 2-2.5 WAR. An average player.

Seriously, put your snark on hold until you know what you're talking about.

I know what I'm talking about. I'm saying that a 3B, any 3B who hit for a .780 OPS would be above average. What are you taking about? I wasn't talking about Reynolds. But if you want to include his 2.5 UZR/150 in 2010, into the equation for a .780 OPS 3B, I think he would be worth more than 2.4 WAR. Lat year of the 23 3B who qualified, Reynolds was 11th with his .753 OPS.

[SrMeowMeow]

I know what I'm talking about. I'm saying that a 3B, any 3B who hit for a .780 OPS would be above average. What are you taking about? I wasn't talking about Reynolds. But if you want to include his 2.5 UZR/150 in 2010, into the equation for a .780 OPS 3B, I think he would be worth more than 2.4 WAR. Lat year of the 23 3B who qualified, Reynolds was 11th with his .753 OPS.

But, you're wrong. Reynolds hit for a 778 OPS as a 3B in 2008 and was worth 1.4 WAR.

[Bradysburns]

I'm not sure why you're even bringing single-season (really, five weeks) UZR into your analysis. That's akin to using 2-3 weeks of batting results as evidence. Reynolds is a -7.0 UZR guy over his career, although that's been trending somewhat upward. +/- and Total Zone basically agree with that. Tango's fans scouting report ranks him a little above average.

Some kind of aggregate of those metrics should be your objective view of his defense unless there's some overwhelming reason to think he's changed in 2011. So, IMO, you have to say he's a bit below average overall.

I admit that one partial season of UZR is not a true indicator of a guy's defensive prowess - but I was just trying to go on how each player has performed as an Oriole. So admittedly, the comparison is imperfect in a lot of ways. My point in bringing this up was to raise the question: knowing how absolutely LOATHED Atkins is on the board, how much better - really - is Reynolds? I want to believe he's exponentially better. But at this stage, my heart and my head are starting to disagree. The Atkins comparison has been called "troll-like"... that certainly wasn't my intention.

[Remember The Alomar]

For those who are as confused as I was... Il Dottore.

Drungo is to Il Dottore as Reynolds is to Atkins? Now it's making more sense....I think.

The Doctor is a local, angry, disruptive busybody who doesn't listen to anyone else from any of the fields that he claims to know about

[Bradysburns]

Your argument gets dumber every post you make. Cal was adequate at 3b. Reynolds is a converted SS, and has improved his defense nearly every single year.

Bell has struck out more than 1x every 3 abs vs minor league pitching and walked once every 42.5 abs. So good contact rate there.

Reynolds isn't much better with the K's but has walked once for every 9.8 abs. Oh and this is against the big boys not minor leaguers.

Bell will be 25 in November Reynolds turns 28 later this year. If anything the Orioles are more in need of someone who can hold the fort down for 2-3 years and not be a work in progress. We can't afford to get worse and Bell is obviously worse than reynolds.

Okay, so you're saying that Cal at third and Reynolds at third is pretty much a push, according to your baseball judgement? Your argument is apparently the Jeff Daniels to my Jim Carrey.

[Bradysburns]

What a horrible comp.

Why? Atkins was signed to play some third, and was a third baseman - and his performance as an Oriole was not inferior to Reynolds' so far, across the board, despite what you seem to imply. The point being, I think Reynolds - IF he continues at this pace - isn't the long-term answer... and might not even be the answer for the rest of the season. The point being: Reynolds needs to step it up, or risk going the way of Jay Gibbons. Wait, Gibbons actually has a much better stat line than Reynolds right now.

[Bradysburns]

Is it just me or does Reynolds swing at and miss a lot of hittable fastballs? To be fair he swings at and misses a lot of everything.

It does seem like he's vulnerable to four-seamers up in the zone.

[SrMeowMeow]

Why? Atkins was signed to play some third, and was a third baseman - and his performance as an Oriole was not inferior to Reynolds' so far, across the board, despite what you seem to imply. The point being, I think Reynolds - IF he continues at this pace - isn't the long-term answer... and might not even be the answer for the rest of the season. The point being: Reynolds needs to step it up, or risk going the way of Jay Gibbons. Wait, Gibbons actually has a much better stat line than Reynolds right now.

Thinking with your head means not reacting to what, like 100 PA?

[Bradysburns]

I don't recall the options right now (maybe Tejada or Kouzmanoff?), nor do I know what we'd have had to give up, but we didn't acquire Reynolds "hoping" for a 2 WAR player and we probably didn't need to trade someone with Hernandez's value for a guy who's hoping to be worth 2 WAR.

He could still get hot with the weather. It happens all the time, so I'm not exactly panicking. It could still be a good trade for all I know. I'm just not impressed with what I've seen so far, and I think people who are supportive of the move are basing their support almost entirely on previous track record - discounting somewhat 2010 - rather than the performance they've seen to date. That doesn't mean they're wrong, it just means they're also in the hoping he isn't in the middle of a sharp decline camp.

I also hate the Atkins comp, by the way, and I think Drungo was right when he said it was the baseball equivalent to a Hitler comp. It doesn't promote a useful discussion.

I wouldn't be shocked if Reynolds caught fire and got on a streak - I would be pleasantly surprised. The OP merely threw out some statistics to ponder (and rather key stats, at that - I think BA, wOBA, UZR, etc., are all considered bread-and-butter stats). But seriously - I'm calling foul on the Hitler comparison. Atkins was clearly worse than Hitler - in terms of his wOBA. (Seriously, look in the mirror and say to yourself: "Tonight, I basically compared Garrett Atkins to Adolph Hilter, with a straight face." And see if you don't laugh.)

[El Gordo]

This is very astute. Groucho is a fairly recent incarnation of the Il Dotorre comic archtype. I don't know about Drungo but I am flattered to be compared to perhaps the most brilliant comic of our times. :laughlol:

[Bradysburns]

All I was saying is that his career numbers before opening day were an .819, and now they're an .809. So prior to the season one estimate of his true talent was an .819, and after a month of a .500 or .600 or whatever, that estimate is now .809.

I think the 2-for-8 guy is whatever his prior career numbers are, plus 2-for-8. Or maybe some weighted average of his last few years, plus 2-for-8.

I don't know - that doesn't compute for me 100%. It seems like you have to account for recency - in other words, give a little more weight to more recent data. That would bring the OPS down. Although I'm not a sabermetrician. Would love to know if there was an easy calculation for this.

[El Gordo]

But, you're wrong. Reynolds hit for a 778 OPS as a 3B in 2008 and was worth 1.4 WAR.

You keep wanting to talk about Reynolds. My point is a .780 OPS 3B is better than league average. You bring up Reynolds' 2008 season to disprove that. Well of course if you want to look at a 3B with a -11 UZR/150 he is likely to have a below average WAR. But if you have a .780 OPS 3B with a 2.5 UZR/150, what do you suppose his WAR would be? How about a league average UZR/150 and a .780 OPS?