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Mark Reynolds vs. Garrett Atkins

Bradysburns

By Bradysburns
in Orioles Talk

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Camden_yardbird Hangout Grand Counsel

Camden_yardbird

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I would trade a reliever in a minute for a guy who is under team control for 3 years and has 40 HR potential. I don't even care if we knew Hernandez was going to turn into Joakim Soria. The position player is just a better bet.

The comparison with Atkins is laughable.

As for his defense, it looks shaky bit perfectly acceptable. What take me from being worried about it to thinking it is indifferent to his stock as a player is that he has a gun, and he has great instincts. That throw to home, from his knees... ridiculous.

Reynolds clearly has drive and ability, and that makes him the best 3B the Os have had since Melmo in his prime.

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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What decent 3B? And what do we give up to get him?

I don't recall the options right now (maybe Tejada or Kouzmanoff?), nor do I know what we'd have had to give up, but we didn't acquire Reynolds "hoping" for a 2 WAR player and we probably didn't need to trade someone with Hernandez's value for a guy who's hoping to be worth 2 WAR.

He could still get hot with the weather. It happens all the time, so I'm not exactly panicking. It could still be a good trade for all I know. I'm just not impressed with what I've seen so far, and I think people who are supportive of the move are basing their support almost entirely on previous track record - discounting somewhat 2010 - rather than the performance they've seen to date. That doesn't mean they're wrong, it just means they're also in the hoping he isn't in the middle of a sharp decline camp.

I also hate the Atkins comp, by the way, and I think Drungo was right when he said it was the baseball equivalent to a Hitler comp. It doesn't promote a useful discussion.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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But citing numbers that continue a trend does.

To a very small degree. Prior to the year our best estimate of Reynolds' true talent was an .819 OPS, or a 108 OPS+. Right now that estimate is a .809 or a 107.

Mostly citing a 2-for-8 run as evidence a guy is a .250 hitter is just confirmation bias.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I don't recall the options right now (maybe Tejada or Kouzmanoff?), nor do I know what we'd have had to give up, but we didn't acquire Reynolds "hoping" for a 2 WAR player and we probably didn't need to trade someone with Hernandez's value for a guy who's hoping to be worth 2 WAR.

No, everyone was assuming that he was a 1-2 win player even if he didn't recover much from 2010 (especially his poor finish when hurt), and hoping that he'd rebound to a 4-5 win level when healthy and adjusted.

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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No, everyone was assuming that he was a 1-2 win player even if he didn't recover much from 2010 (especially his poor finish when hurt), and hoping that he'd rebound to a 4-5 win level when healthy and adjusted.

Fair enough. I'll just put myself into the I'll believe it when I see it camp. His bat looks very slow to me and I don't think he adds much if any value on defense. Can he turn it around? Some of his history says yes, some hints at no. I don't know the answer. My biggest concern is that the O's don't either. I just don't trust them when it comes to player evaluation. Maybe Arizona had a better read on Reynolds? Seems likely to me. Or maybe they just wanted to cut salary. Also very plausible, and certainly what I hope to be true.

By the way, a third offseason option may have been trading the same players (Hernandez and Mickolio?) for some other player. It sure seemed like Hernandez had value insofar as he was a young power arm and he was cheap for a while.

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ShaneDawg85 Hangout Veteran Council

ShaneDawg85

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Well, there is too much information on this thread for my small brain to compute. However, just the fact that we are arguing who is worse Renyolds or Atkins, is very scarey for an Oriole fan.

Not really, because there's no comparison. Atkins had been in decline for several seasons leading up to his brief tenure with the Orioles, so there was plenty of evidence to suggest he would do very badly. Maybe not as badly as he did, but still very badly. Reynolds, despite hitting below .200 last season, still hit 30+ home runs and drove guys in. There's no doubt he hasn't hit in those terms the way people have so far, but even if he doesn't turn it on and hit for power like he has, there's zero comparison between him and Atkins. None whatsoever.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Well, there is too much information on this thread for my small brain to compute. However, just the fact that we are arguing who is worse Renyolds or Atkins, is very scarey for an Oriole fan.

Its not scary once you realize that it is a terrible comparison.

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DeanMW AA

DeanMW

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Well, there is too much information on this thread for my small brain to compute. However, just the fact that we are arguing who is worse Renyolds or Atkins, is very scarey for an Oriole fan.

I could compare nearly any player to Atkins, like a certain 1B who plays in St. Louis.

Doesn't make me perceptive or correct.

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