Orioles need Alonso, Cinci needs Guthrie - let's make a deal

[The Rick]

A necessity? You are trading your most reliable pitcher with no in house option to replace him, that is a necessity? How are we better giving up a proven pitcher for a bat that may or may not pan out and no pitcher to replace Guthrie?

It's all about probability. Is it likely that Guthrie is as good when we're in a position to contend? That's the key here, and the answer is no IMO. That's why you go out and get a couple of solid prospects who may be able to perform at their peak when we're in a situation to make a run.

The Marlins landed HanRam for Beckett. We're not going to get a Hanley, but dealing him gives us the potential to acquire some good talent.

[eddie83]

It's all about probability. Is it likely that Guthrie is as good when we're in a position to contend? That's the key here, and the answer is no IMO. That's why you go out and get a couple of solid prospects who may be able to perform at their peak when we're in a situation to make a run.

The Marlins landed HanRam for Beckett. We're not going to get a Hanley, but dealing him gives us the potential to acquire some good talent.

Then you have no belief this team can contend in the next two to three years and I do. Why do you have Jones, Wieters ,Markakis, Britton, Matusz and Arrieta if you aren't trying to win around them, you are wasting them.

[The Rick]

Then you have no belief this team can contend in the next two to three years and I do. Why do you have Jones, Wieters ,Markakis, Britton, Matusz and Arrieta if you aren't trying to win around them, you are wasting them.

No, I don't. Do I want them to? Absolutely. Am I disgusted that I have to wait even longer for a contender, damn right. But unless everything goes right, I just don't see it happening. IMO, it's all about adding Machado/Schoop/Bundy's/Esposito to the current core of Britton/Matusz/Arrieta/Jones/Wieters/Markakis/Insert 1B'men here. It sucks but I just don't see us having a legit shot until 2014 or later.

[SrMeowMeow]

It's heartless...but we got Guthrie's best years from him for cheap. No reason to pay him back for those seasons by getting guilted into a bad contract. The team can't handle too many Brian Roberts deals.

[DrungoHazewood]

A necessity? You are trading your most reliable pitcher with no in house option to replace him, that is a necessity? How are we better giving up a proven pitcher for a bat that may or may not pan out and no pitcher to replace Guthrie?

When the Orioles are good, they'll be good because the young pitching stepped up, and some/most/all of Matusz, Arrieta, Britton and others are every bit as good as, if not better than, Guthrie is now. Guthrie is already 32, and will be heading into free agency for his age 34 season. He is about as old as you can be when first eligible for free agency, so this is likely his only chance at a long-term deal. Chances are he'll want to get paid at least market value, not take a discount to stay in Baltimore. So if the O's are any good in 2013, they'd be paying a mid-rotation starter full free agent prices for his age 34-37 or 38 or 39 seasons.

So while it might not be a necessity, it's pretty straightforward to see a path to getting better value and better value for the money by trading Guthrie sometime between now and next spring.

[eddie83]

No, I don't. Do I want them to? Absolutely. Am I disgusted that I have to wait even longer for a contender, damn right. But unless everything goes right, I just don't see it happening. IMO, it's all about adding Machado/Schoop/Bundy's/Esposito to the current core of Britton/Matusz/Arrieta/Jones/Wieters/Markakis/Insert 1B'men here. It sucks but I just don't see us having a legit shot until 2014 or later.

I disagree, you are depending on another crop that may or may not pan out.

[The Rick]

I disagree, you are depending on another crop that may or may not pan out.

And you're depending on a good starter who probably will be on the decline on a team that isn't ready to contend.

Trust me, I've struggled with this too, but it's just the right thing to do. Sports Guy has been right all along that we needed to trade Guthrie & Scott yesterday.

I know an "undisclosed AL GM" was regretful that they didn't step up and offer more to get Guthrie at least years deadline. If some teams "step up" this year we have to do it. I'll try to find the link to that article last year.

[DrungoHazewood]

Then you have no belief this team can contend in the next two to three years and I do. Why do you have Jones, Wieters ,Markakis, Britton, Matusz and Arrieta if you aren't trying to win around them, you are wasting them.

If the Orioles have any shot at contending in the next 2-3 years it'll be because players other than Guthrie stepped up and became better. If Guthrie is even on a good 2012 or 2013 O's team it'll probably be in a complementary role, not as an ace.

[eddie83]

When the Orioles are good, they'll be good because the young pitching stepped up, and some/most/all of Matusz, Arrieta, Britton and others are every bit as good as, if not better than, Guthrie is now. Guthrie is already 32, and will be heading into free agency for his age 34 season. He is about as old as you can be when first eligible for free agency, so this is likely his only chance at a long-term deal. Chances are he'll want to get paid at least market value, not take a discount to stay in Baltimore. So if the O's are any good in 2013, they'd be paying a mid-rotation starter full free agent prices for his age 34-37 or 38 or 39 seasons.

So while it might not be a necessity, it's pretty straightforward to see a path to getting better value and better value for the money by trading Guthrie sometime between now and next spring.

You have no idea how much he will make. IIt is all about saving money never getting better. The odds the players you get for Guthrie matching his production the next three years is very slim. We are never going to contend playing the same old trade a good player for younger cheaper talent game.

The odds all the young pitching stay healthy and are productive is hard to do, why not keep a good pitcher around to help out.

[The Rick]

You have no idea how much he will make. IIt is all about saving money never getting better. The odds the players you get for Guthrie matching his production the next three years is very slim. We are never going to contend playing the same old trade a good player for younger cheaper talent game.

The odds all the young pitching stay healthy and are productive is hard to do, why not keep a good pitcher around to help out.

That's interesting because that's exactly how the Marlins have won 2 WS's and the Rays have become contenders.

[eddie83]

If the Orioles have any shot at contending in the next 2-3 years it'll be because players other than Guthrie stepped up and became better. If Guthrie is even on a good 2012 or 2013 O's team it'll probably be in a complementary role, not as an ace.

Why can't he help that, why can't he be a part of that? You have nobody to replace him in the rotation, nobody. You act like he is going to fall apart because he reaches a certain age. By next year he will be a complementary pitcher?

[The Rick]

Why can't he help that, why can't he be a part of that? You have nobody to replace him in the rotation, nobody. You act like he is going to fall apart because he reaches a certain age. By next year he will be a complementary pitcher?

Say he's still an above average pitcher next year - Does it matter? Are we a contender next year?

[eddie83]

That's interesting because that's exactly how the Marlins have won 2 WS's and the Rays have become contenders.

The Marlins bought their first title. They developed their second team and they won with deep pitching, not the Tillman's and Bergy's of the world. The Rays have become contenders because of good starting pitching also. You are not going to be a contending team throwing weak starters on the field.

[The Rick]

The Marlins bought their first title. They developed their second team and they won with deep pitching, not the Tillman's and Bergy's of the world. The Rays have become contenders because of good starting pitching also. You are not going to be a contending team throwing weak starters on the field.

Pitching that was, for the most part, home grown. That's what we're trying to do.

[eddie83]

Say he's still an above average pitcher next year - Does it matter? Are we a contender next year?

If the rest of team improves, maybe? You are never going to have a perfect window in this division. There is no law stating he can't be traded next year. We need a TOR starter and a big bat I don't see how Guthrie, never mind anybody get's that in a trade.