Orioles need Alonso, Cinci needs Guthrie - let's make a deal

[Sports Guy]

This guy has Josh Bell written all over him, by the way, with less power. In fact, if you are going to deal a quality starter just for him, then id rather give Bell a first basemans glove. This is NOT the kind of player id deal Guts for, unless there is a whole lot more involved.

You really have no idea what you are talking about.

If you don't want to make the trade, that's fine...but throwing out poor comps just to prove your poor point is a worthless exercise.

That being said, Bell was a very good prospect when he came here.

[LookitsPuck]

Alonso is not an established major leaguer. He's roughly a Nolan Reimold type at this point. You don't trade Jeremy Guthrie for Nolan Reimold. Now, if you can get another good prospect, then that's a different story.

Alonso is not going to be a Tex, Fielder, etc. type. But he'll be a guy who can play a decent 1B with some pop. I think he's more of a Kendry Morales type, maybe a Kendry Morales light. Someone who will give you a 775 OPS or so. Not earth shattering, but certainly worlds better than what the O's have had at 1B over the years.

[VeveJones007]

Alonso is not an established major leaguer. He's roughly a Nolan Reimold type at this point. You don't trade Jeremy Guthrie for Nolan Reimold. Now, if you can get another good prospect, then that's a different story.

Alonso is not going to be a Tex, Fielder, etc. type. But he'll be a guy who can play a decent 1B with some pop. I think he's more of a Kendry Morales type, maybe a Kendry Morales light. Someone who will give you a 775 OPS or so. Not earth shattering, but certainly worlds better than what the O's have had at 1B over the years.

And that's appropriate value.

A Cliff Lee-type gets you a Justin Smoak-like prospect.

A Jeremy Guthrie-type gets you a Yonder Alonso-like prospect.

As for replacing Guthrie, the O's can throw 3 years at an average starter, who is younger than Guthrie, and get similar value.

[Sports Guy]

Alonso is a very solid prospect.

He has always been a good average hitter in the minors, which bodes well for the majors.

He walks a solid amount of time..Not great but not bad.

He isn't a huge K guy, which is also a good sign.

He has hit a ton of XBH, which bodes well for power down the road.

He has a solid glove over at first, reportedly.

He has hit well in pitchers environments in AA and AAA and that also can not be overlooked.

Some of the comps people are using are just idioitic and have no basis on reality.

He has similar MiL stats to a guy like AGon, another player who many on here said would never develop power. That doesn't mean Alonso will develop it but the problem is people look at the number in that HR column and just say, well its not a lot, so he must not have power. They forget to look at slugging%, doubles and what type of environment he is playing in...also, age.

Alonso may or may not pan out but to say he can't at least be the centerpiece in a deal for Guthrie means a few things:

1) You greatly overrate Guthrie.

2) You greatly underrate Alonso.

3) You don't have an understanding for organizational need.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

You really have no idea what you are talking about.

If you don't want to make the trade, that's fine...but throwing out poor comps just to prove your poor point is a worthless exercise.

That being said, Bell was a very good prospect when he came here.

Poor comps? You just admitted that Bell was a very good prospect when he came here, so which is it? It is a perfectly good comp. Bell has not worked out yet. He still may. I don't want to trade our best chip for a guy that is similar to one in our system.

[Sports Guy]

Poor comps? You just admitted that Bell was a very good prospect when he came here, so which is it? It is a perfectly good comp. Bell has not worked out yet. He still may. I don't want to trade our best chip for a guy that is similar to one in our system.

Bell never progressed and put up the AAA numbers Alonso has done.

End of the day, you just want to be negative about it, so you throw out the name of a failed prospect to try and attempt to prove your horrible point.

The 2 players aren't all that similar. Different body types, different positions, etc...

We could trade Guthrie for Moutsakas and he may not work out...That's the nature of the beast.

We could also choose to hold onto Guthrie, he blows out his arm and never pitches for us again...Meanwhile, Alonso is the next AGon.

Stuff happens...Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't...But Alonso is clearly a guy we should be targeting and he is clearly a guy that could be a centerpiece for Guthrie. If you don't agre, that's fine...you are just wrong.

[Phantom]

Let's leave this to the experts. From FG top ten prospects article (2/28/2011):

5. Yonder Alonso, 1B/OF

Acquired: 2008 1st round (U of Miami)

Pro Experience: 3 seasons

2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA/MLB

Opening Day Age: 24

Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: One of six college first basemen taken in the first round of the 2008 draft, Alonso has been one of the slowest to reach the Majors (along with Toronto’s David Cooper, and San Diego’s Allan Dykstra, neither of whom have reached The Show). Alonso has just 29 at-bats under his big league belt but he produced a solid, albeit unspectacular, offensive season at triple-A in 2010. He hit .296/.355/.470 in 406 at-bats. His ISO rate sat at .175 and his lack of typical slugger-power has been one of the knocks on him dating back to his college days. Alonso does project to hit for a solid average and he shows a good eye at the plate while possessing a well-rounded approach- he could hit 20 homers. I’m not a huge fan of his weight transfer during his swing. He hits off his front foot far too often, which robs him of potential power. He’ll have a tough time displacing Joey Votto in Cincinnati if he cannot handle the outfield. At first base, he could develop into an average fielder.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-10-prospects-the-cincinnati-reds/

and here's the Josh Bell writup (1/5/2010)

2. Josh Bell, 3B, Double-A (and was ranked the #19 prospect in the AL at this time)

DOB: November 1986 Bats: Both Throws: Right

Signed: 2005 4th round – Florida HS (Los Angeles NL)

MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

With the loss of incumbent third baseman Melvin Mora, Bell has an outside chance of breaking camp with the club in 2010. That likelihood diminished, though, with the club’s acquisition of long-time Rockie Garrett Atkins, who is expected to keep the hot corner warm until Bell is ready. After a solid showing in double-A this past season, it should not be long for the former Dodgers prospect. Bell hit .296/.386/.497 in 334 at-bats after coming over from LA. He also posted a solid .201 ISO (.281 in the LAD system), so he has the power that most teams covet at the position. With modest speed, Bell has produced rather high BABIPs in the minors, so he may not be a .280-.300 hitter in the Majors like he was in the minors. Despite that fact, Bell has an intriguing mix of power and patience (13.0% walk rate).

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/baltimore-orioles-top-10-prospects/

[Fan4Life]

Some options in the PCL. The first guy is very young and tearing it up. I know the numbers are inflated some in that league, but for his age and numbers wow.

Anthony Rizzo

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=1B&sid=l112&t=p_pbp&pid=519203

Brandon Allen

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=1B&sid=l112&t=p_pbp&pid=450315

David Cooper

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=1B&sid=l112&t=p_pbp&pid=476036

Shane Peterson

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=1B&sid=l112&t=p_pbp&pid=451089

[Stotle]

Let's leave this to the experts. From FG top ten prospects article (2/28/2011):

5. Yonder Alonso, 1B/OF

Acquired: 2008 1st round (U of Miami)

Pro Experience: 3 seasons

2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA/MLB

Opening Day Age: 24

Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-10-prospects-the-cincinnati-reds/

and here's the Josh Bell writup (1/5/2010)

2. Josh Bell, 3B, Double-A (and was ranked the #19 prospect in the AL at this time)

DOB: November 1986 Bats: Both Throws: Right

Signed: 2005 4th round – Florida HS (Los Angeles NL)

MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/baltimore-orioles-top-10-prospects/

The review of Alonso kid of ignores that he was really bad when first promoted to AAA then adjusted and was really good. He has been really good this year, as well.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

Bell never progressed and put up the AAA numbers Alonso has done.

End of the day, you just want to be negative about it, so you throw out the name of a failed prospect to try and attempt to prove your horrible point.

The 2 players aren't all that similar. Different body types, different positions, etc...

We could trade Guthrie for Moutsakas and he may not work out...That's the nature of the beast.

We could also choose to hold onto Guthrie, he blows out his arm and never pitches for us again...Meanwhile, Alonso is the next AGon.

Stuff happens...Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't...But Alonso is clearly a guy we should be targeting and he is clearly a guy that could be a centerpiece for Guthrie. If you don't agre, that's fine...you are just wrong.

Alonso put up a 825 ops last year at AAA. Not exactly lighting it up. Bell put up an 810.

Bell can play first and has.

Career minor numbers OPS Bell 825 Alonso 840. XBH per PA Bell 10.4 Alonso 10.5. Hr rate Bell 1 per 28 AB, Alonso 1 every 38. BA Bell .284 Alonso .298. OBP Bell .350, Alonso, 371. They are about 6 months apart in age and Alonso is from Cuba, so who knows if his age is accurate.

Alonso is having a hot start, so of course you jump on him. You are the king of the grass being greener.

I do not want to trade our best chip for a guy, when we have a similar one in our system. He might be someone we look at as part of a package. But to say it is an organizational need, when we have the same type guy sitting in AAA is not paying attention.

[Phantom]

The review of Alonso kid of ignores that he was really bad when first promoted to AAA then adjusted and was really good. He has been really good this year, as well.

I disagree. I'm not seeing a big difference in his numbers from last year to this one. His wOBA is 13 points higher, which is probably about what was expected for a 24 year old in his first full season at AAA.

[LookitsPuck]

And that's appropriate value.

A Cliff Lee-type gets you a Justin Smoak-like prospect.

A Jeremy Guthrie-type gets you a Yonder Alonso-like prospect.

As for replacing Guthrie, the O's can throw 3 years at an average starter, who is younger than Guthrie, and get similar value.

Aside from a blip in 2009, Guthrie has given you a sub 4.00 ERA. A WHIP at 1.20 or less. That is not average. And who are they signing that is average and younger than Guthrie for 3 years? And how much are they paying? And how many prospects do they have to give up?

That said, Yonder Alonso + another prospect, and it's a deal.

[Sports Guy]

Alonso put up a 825 ops last year at AAA. Not exactly lighting it up. Bell put up an 810.

Bell can play first and has.

Career minor numbers OPS Bell 825 Alonso 840. XBH per PA Bell 10.4 Alonso 10.5. Hr rate Bell 1 per 28 AB, Alonso 1 every 38. BA Bell .284 Alonso .298. OBP Bell .350, Alonso, 371. They are about 6 months apart in age and Alonso is from Cuba, so who knows if his age is accurate.

Alonso is having a hot start, so of course you jump on him. You are the king of the grass being greener.

I do not want to trade our best chip for a guy, when we have a similar one in our system. He might be someone we look at as part of a package. But to say it is an organizational need, when we have the same type guy sitting in AAA is not paying attention.

I wanted Alonso LAST YEAR.

Since 9/11, the age stuff has mainly gone away and Alonso went to Miami, so he was out of college...Do you just make stuff up or do you just not know what you are talking about?

Bell isn't the same as Alonso, no matter how much you keep saying it.

Alonso is a better OBP guy..He is a better average hitter. He isn't K'ing nearly as much. He is walking more. You can gloss over the importance of those things and that's fine...but it doesn't make your argument better..it makes it much worse.

[Stotle]

Alonso put up a 825 ops last year at AAA. Not exactly lighting it up. Bell put up an 810.

Bell can play first and has.

Career minor numbers OPS Bell 825 Alonso 840. XBH per PA Bell 10.4 Alonso 10.5. Hr rate Bell 1 per 28 AB, Alonso 1 every 38. BA Bell .284 Alonso .298. OBP Bell .350, Alonso, 371. They are about 6 months apart in age and Alonso is from Cuba, so who knows if his age is accurate.

Alonso is having a hot start, so of course you jump on him. You are the king of the grass being greener.

I do not want to trade our best chip for a guy, when we have a similar one in our system. He might be someone we look at as part of a package. But to say it is an organizational need, when we have the same type guy sitting in AAA is not paying attention.

I mean, I don't know how many times I have said this, but Alonso was bad when promoted last year and then went on a tear. I just went and pulled this, figuring maybe Baseball America's words will carry more weight:

[Alonso] batted .332 with nine of his 12 homers in the final two months. He displayed good power to all fields with a short stroke, good hand-eye coordination and excellent strength. After struggling against lefthanders in the lower minors, he batted .269/.318/.429 against them in the IL.

"When he swings the bat, he puts the ball in play more than most players, so he needs to be careful when he swings the bat to get a good pitch to hit," Sweet said. "On tough pitches, most guys would foul the pitch off or swing and miss. Yonder puts it in play."

To act like the start to this year is a hot streak is disingenuous. To compare him to Brandon Snyder (which some have) is inappropriate because of the vast difference in raw power. Does it turn into playable power? THere is certainly reason to think it will. He is no where near a Josh Bell type bat. His hand/eye and approach is geared to contact, not big high effort swings.

In any event, all of this is very likely moot, as I think Cincy is not likely to move him at this point.

[LookitsPuck]

Alonso is a very solid prospect.

He has always been a good average hitter in the minors, which bodes well for the majors.

He walks a solid amount of time..Not great but not bad.

He isn't a huge K guy, which is also a good sign.

He has hit a ton of XBH, which bodes well for power down the road.

He has a solid glove over at first, reportedly.

He has hit well in pitchers environments in AA and AAA and that also can not be overlooked.

Some of the comps people are using are just idioitic and have no basis on reality.

He has similar MiL stats to a guy like AGon, another player who many on here said would never develop power. That doesn't mean Alonso will develop it but the problem is people look at the number in that HR column and just say, well its not a lot, so he must not have power. They forget to look at slugging%, doubles and what type of environment he is playing in...also, age.

Alonso may or may not pan out but to say he can't at least be the centerpiece in a deal for Guthrie means a few things:

1) You greatly overrate Guthrie.

2) You greatly underrate Alonso.

3) You don't have an understanding for organizational need.

I know you were not responding to me, but Alonso can be the centerpiece in a deal for Guthrie, but by no means the main piece.

That said, Adrian Gonzalez was younger than Alonso and have more pop. He had a down year in 2003 in the minors, but aside from that:

2004 - 22 years old, 304/364/457 - 821 OPS

2005 - 23 years old, 338/339/561 - 960 OPS

He hit 12 home runs and 28 doubles in 2004 in 508 plate appearances, and then hit 18 home runs and 17 doubles in 368 plate appearances in 2005 at the age of 23.

They're both 1st round talent, but AGon was drafted 1st overall and as a better fielder on top of his bat. I don't know who here said he'd never develop power, as that was 11 years ago (and you've only been on this forum since 2004)

that he was drafted. And if you go by when you started on this forum, it would have been 2004. Since 2004 it's been all money for AGon (in the minors in 2k4 and 2k5, and then put it on when with San Diego in 2k6..)