Orioles need Alonso, Cinci needs Guthrie - let's make a deal

[waroriole]

Because you asked what FA pitcher was out there.

Oh, I was responding to what Mr. Cat said:

Look at it this way - would any of you, any of you, trade Yonder Alonso if we had him for Jeremy Guthrie? No way. Not in a million years. Why would we want to add a solid but unspectacular veteran finally becoming expensive and already 32? We'd say, "why not just sign a comparable pitcher in FA and not give up the 24-year-old prospect at a position of need OPSing 890 in AAA".

[Sports Guy]

Oh, I was responding to what Mr. Cat said:

Oh ok...My points still apply though!

(they just don't apply to your point)

[DrungoHazewood]

But if I had a blocked prospect, who is a solid prospect not a GREAT one(ie, not on the level of a guy like Trout or someone like that) and I had a huge need at starting pitcher and I was in the NL, then Guthrie is a great target.

The question in the back of my mind throughout this thread has been "does Cincy really see starting pitching as a huge need?" Sure, their current starters aren't performing like a championship group. But they have five starters age 27 or younger with a lot of upside, a lot of potential. They might be content with who they have, and hoping they'll work out the issues they're going through. Or at least content enough to not give up their major trade chit for a mid-rotation innings eater who'll necessarily displace one of their younger, cheaper, higher-upside guys.

[Sports Guy]

The question in the back of my mind throughout this thread has been "does Cincy really see starting pitching as a huge need?" Sure, their current starters aren't performing like a championship group. But they have five starters age 27 or younger with a lot of upside, a lot of potential. They might be content with who they have, and hoping they'll work out the issues they're going through. Or at least content enough to not give up their major trade chit for a mid-rotation innings eater who'll necessarily displace one of their younger, cheaper, higher-upside guys.

Sure, they may be content with them and that's fine.

But starting pitching is clearly their biggest need right now, that is undeniable.

So, if they want to win and they are trying to make the playoffs this year, then their starting pitching is going to have to improve.

Now, it is 6 weeks or so until the deadline and since that is the case, they may have the attitude of wait and see on their young pitching. They also may feel that they aren't going to be able to contend this year, so they won't do anything.

[SrMeowMeow]

What he said..

It is apples and astronauts. I would gladly trade Alonso for Guthrie if roles were reversed and the O's were in contention and needed starting pitching. A guy with sustained success in the AL East, fairly cheap for the next year and a half (a period I expect to contend in) pitching in the NL Central. Guthrie is a pretty damn good pitcher and would easily be the second best pitcher in that rotation and maybe the best.

If I drew the conclusion that I was a SP away from contending the "Yes". Alonso is essentially blocked and playing out of position ...So for them he is depth. For them you consider making the deal for all the right reasons. If your the Orioles you dont trade for a Guthrie type pitcher because you dont stand a chance.

And, since we're not a SP away from contending, the answer is "no", right? We agree on that?

[Sports Guy]

And, since we're not a SP away from contending, the answer is "no", right? We agree on that?

Right...But that doesn't mean the answer would be no if we were a contender.

[TiredofLosing20]

And, since we're not a SP away from contending, the answer is "no", right? We agree on that?

If I were the Orioles today and I had Alonso I would not trade him for Guthrie.

But sometime within "a million years" I would make that deal if I thought I needed starting pitching to contend.

[SrMeowMeow]

If this "logic" was always used, no trades would ever get done.

The fact of that matter is that Alonso is a blocked prospect and has been switched to a new position...If he is good out there, so be it, I may be less willing to deal him.

But if I had a blocked prospect, who is a solid prospect not a GREAT one(ie, not on the level of a guy like Trout or someone like that) and I had a huge need at starting pitcher and I was in the NL, then Guthrie is a great target.

In the NL, it is very likely Guthrie does enough next year to where he is at least a type B FA. So, you do get back a decent prospect in return when it is all said and done.

So, it would depend on the situation of both my team, the player we are getting and the prospect, in this case, Guthrie.

Now, if the Reds feel Alonso will be fine in LF OR they don't feel they have what it takes to get into the playoffs this year, then perhaps you don't make the deal.

I feel like you misunderstood my post. My point is, nobody would trade Alonso for Guthrie if we already had Alonso and the Reds had Guthrie...therefore we should trade Guthrie for him. Just trying to give a new perspective to overcome the "overvaluing your own players" syndrome.

[Sports Guy]

I feel like you misunderstood my post. My point is, nobody would trade Alonso for Guthrie if we already had Alonso and the Reds had Guthrie...therefore we should trade Guthrie for him. Just trying to give a new perspective to overcome the "overvaluing your own players" syndrome.

Oh ok...well, I do think some would want to make that deal if we were a contender and needed a starter.

I will say this though and I think this goes with what you are trying to say...If Alonso was an Orioles prospect, people on this site would be giddy.

And if Guthrie was on another team, people would be doing what I have doing for a while...Looking at his peripherals, looking at his age and just assuming a decline any time now.

[waroriole]

I feel like you misunderstood my post. My point is, nobody would trade Alonso for Guthrie if we already had Alonso and the Reds had Guthrie...therefore we should trade Guthrie for him. Just trying to give a new perspective to overcome the "overvaluing your own players" syndrome.

Oh, I read that differently too. I thought you were saying the Reds wouldn't trade Alonso for Guts.

[SrMeowMeow]

Oh ok...well, I do think some would want to make that deal if we were a contender and needed a starter.

I will say this though and I think this goes with what you are trying to say...If Alonso was an Orioles prospect, people on this site would be giddy.

And if Guthrie was on another team, people would be doing what I have doing for a while...Looking at his peripherals, looking at his age and just assuming a decline any time now.

I still think I wouldn't trade Alonso for Guthrie if we were contending because of what you said...peripherals, etc. But maybe.

I think we can all agree that if Guthrie's name was Smith and he'd never been on the Orioles, 99% of the board would pick Alonso over Guthrie if told to choose one right now. But since Guthrie's been an Oriole and is well-liked and Alonso is just some numbers and scouting reports, it's hard to see that. That's why being objective is so difficult, and so important.

[Sports Guy]

I still think I wouldn't trade Alonso for Guthrie if we were contending because of what you said...peripherals, etc. But maybe.

I think we can all agree that if Guthrie's name was Smith and he'd never been on the Orioles, 99% of the board would pick Alonso over Guthrie if told to choose one right now. But since Guthrie's been an Oriole and is well-liked and Alonso is just some numbers and scouting reports, it's hard to see that. That's why being objective is so difficult, and so important.

Ok, I totally agree with you here. In fact, I will go as far to say as there is abolsutely zero doubt that you are correct.

[SrMeowMeow]

Ok, I totally agree with you here. In fact, I will go as far to say as there is abolsutely zero doubt that you are correct.

Did somebody say signature?

[LookinUp]

2) If we do need one, there could be some innings eater, cost effective FAs out there depending on options being picked up or not.

Don't forget Alonso for Guthrie is a money move at two positions for the Orioles. No more $5-10 million at 1B, and they'd lose Guthrie's salary. In theory, they'd have plenty of money with which they could sign a starter to replace Guthrie.

I think we can all agree that if Guthrie's name was Smith and he'd never been on the Orioles, 99% of the board would pick Alonso over Guthrie if told to choose one right now.

Hold on...if I were a contending team, this might not be true.

It's simple, take the value now or take it later. Guthrie is worth more this year, and probably next. The Reds are in the middle of a nice window. They may want that value now versus what they might get in the next 4 years. Plus they'd be eligible for compensation. If the O's were contenders right now and we had Alonso in AAA but needed a starter to put us over the hump, I'd strongly consider doing it.

If I'm the Reds, I'm watching for 4 more weeks to see if the young starters turn it around. If not, I'm fishing for a starter and Alonso is my bait. I probably set my sights higher, like at King Felix to start, but Guthrie's on my list.

[SrMeowMeow]

Don't forget Alonso for Guthrie is a money move at two positions for the Orioles. No more $5-10 million at 1B, and they'd lose Guthrie's salary. In theory, they'd have plenty of money with which they could sign a starter to replace Guthrie.

Hold on...if I were a contending team, this might not be true.

It's simple, take the value now or take it later. Guthrie is worth more this year, and probably next. The Reds are in the middle of a nice window. They may want that value now versus what they might get in the next 4 years. Plus they'd be eligible for compensation. If the O's were contenders right now and we had Alonso in AAA but needed a starter to put us over the hump, I'd strongly consider doing it.

If I'm the Reds, I'm watching for 4 more weeks to see if the young starters turn it around. If not, I'm fishing for a starter and Alonso is my bait. I probably set my sights higher, like at King Felix to start, but Guthrie's on my list.

I'm talking about the Orioles. Right now. I did say that in my posts.