I think this winter (maybe sooner), it will be time to pick a direction

[Stotle]

If the guys they want are amateurs I think we got that one.

Agreed. Baltimore should be able to NAIL their #4 overall pick, their estimated #56 overall pick and their estimated #86 overall picks now that they are closer to matching the area scouts already in the field with other AL East orgs.

Of course, as if today in the first three rounds:

the Blue Jays select #17, #22, #45, #47, #48, #69 and #99

the Red Sox select #21, #31, #35, #73 and #103

Fortunately, the Rays have no extra picks and the Yankees only have the one extra third rounder for not signing Stafford last year.

[Frobby]

Agreed. Baltimore should be able to NAIL their #4 overall pick, their estimated #56 overall pick and their estimated #86 overall picks now that they are closer to matching the area scouts already in the field with other AL East orgs.

Of course, as if today in the first three rounds:

the Blue Jays select #17, #22, #45, #47, #48, #69 and #99

the Red Sox select #21, #31, #35, #73 and #103

Fortunately, the Rays have no extra picks and the Yankees only have the one extra third rounder for not signing Stafford last year.

Who did the Jays and Sox lose who are producing all these picks? Man, the Jays have had a 3-year run of picks that is unbelievable.

[Stotle]

Who did the Jays and Sox lose who are producing all these picks? Man, the Jays have had a 3-year run of picks that is unbelievable.

Jays -- Francisco, Rauch, Molina and not signing Beede.

Sox -- 2 for Pappelbon

[Frobby]

Jays -- Francisco, Rauch, Molina and not signing Beede.

Sox -- 2 for Pappelbon

Molina -- 55 G, 191 PA,

Rauch -- 52 IP, 4.85 ERA

Francsico -- 50.2 IP, 3.55 ERA

And they got comp picks for all three? They all got offered arbitration and declined? Man, Toronto really knows how to play the game.

[Sports Guy]

Jones probably doesn't lose too much, as he will still have 1.3 seasons remaining in July. Guthrie could lose quite a bit, though it depends who else is available and how he is doing.

I think you are probably right that the O's will hold onto their cards now and reassess in the middle of the season.

Jones definitely has more value right now...its not really debateable.

Usually, in the offseason, hitting gets more than it does at the deadline. He is further away from free agency right now. More teams will go after him right now.

Now, if he has a monster first half, that could change things but you can't go into this discussion assuming that will happen. You have to look at it realistically and play the odds.

Not trading Jones now is a huge mistake.

This team really has no concept of how far away they really are. Everyone else can see it but they have no clue.

[Frobby]

This team really has no concept of how far away they really are. Everyone else can see it but they have no clue.

I suspect Duquette is pretty clear-eyed about this. It's not like this team is one that he built. He has no emotional investment in these players. His director of amateur scouting has been on the pro scout side the last 9 years and probably has a pretty good read on the guys on our roster. Duquette is not going to come out and say "this team stinks." No GM does that.

[Sports Guy]

I suspect Duquette is pretty clear-eyed about this. It's not like this team is one that he built. He has no emotional investment in these players. His director of amateur scouting has been on the pro scout side the last 9 years and probably has a pretty good read on the guys on our roster. Duquette is not going to come out and say "this team stinks." No GM does that.

Umm, he basically did say that. He knows the team is devoid of talent.

But he has a moron for an owner and the "real ML GM" is clueless too.

[vab]

Look, they're just going to have to draft and develop better. All these schemes of trading everybody for prospects or spending a ton of money in free agency or whatever else isn't going to work. I know that isn't going to stimulate a lot of conversation and debate here but it's the bottom line truth of the matter.

[Stotle]

Molina -- 55 G, 191 PA,

Rauch -- 52 IP, 4.85 ERA

Francsico -- 50.2 IP, 3.55 ERA

And they got comp picks for all three? They all got offered arbitration and declined? Man, Toronto really knows how to play the game.

Assuming Wheeler signs with someone, Boston will get a comp pick for him, as well.

[Sports Guy]

Look, they're just going to have to draft and develop better. All these schemes of trading everybody for prospects or spending a ton of money in free agency or whatever else isn't going to work. I know that isn't going to stimulate a lot of conversation and debate here but it's the bottom line truth of the matter.

So, trading for prospects isn't going to work but drafting prospects will?

[vab]

You can trade for prospects but to get good prospects you have to give up good talent. The way to get ahead is to draft guys and develop them without giving up the talent you already have. That's what this organization hasn't been able to do and until they figure out how to do it better, this team won't really be any better.

[Fan4Life]

You can trade for prospects but to get good prospects you have to give up good talent. The way to get ahead is to draft guys and develop them without giving up the talent you already have. That's what this organization hasn't been able to do and until they figure out how to do it better, this team won't really be any better.

You can shortcut the process if you sign FA players who you can spin off into already developed prospects from other teams. We've not been very good at this or the obtaining extra picks from these type of players either.

[Singleton]

I am bumping this thread I started on June 24:

Certainly, things did not get better for the 2011 Orioles after I posted this. But as I look at what Duquette has done so far, it seems we are continuing to steer a middle course. I will be interested to see if he changes direction in January and February and starts looking to trade some of our better veterans. But, indications are, probably not.

I can't imagine why he would suddenly change directions at this point It appears we're neither rebuilding nor going for it. We're just filling a few tiny holes on a 70 win team. It's bizarre.

[Singleton]

Look, they're just going to have to draft and develop better. All these schemes of trading everybody for prospects or spending a ton of money in free agency or whatever else isn't going to work. I know that isn't going to stimulate a lot of conversation and debate here but it's the bottom line truth of the matter.

Or you could do both.

[Fan4Life]

I can't imagine why he would suddenly change directions at this point It appears we're neither rebuilding nor going for it. We're just filling a few tiny holes on a 70 win team. It's bizarre.

He could be targeting the break of 2012 to make his moves. He'll be a lot better informed about the state of his players and his organization at that time.