Bigger Bust?

[Can_of_corn]

I said that we were expecting him to have a career that had an effectiveness similar to that of McNally and Cueller. How is that underselling his hype ? McNally and Cueller are both regarded as great, borderline Hall-of-Famers both by Oriole fans and nationally by fans of all of the other teams.

Not according to the voters, but according to their numbers and the pitchers that their careers were similar to, they were.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuellmi01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcnalda01.shtml

You said regarded as, I think first year voting results is a pretty good indicator of how they were regarded.

McNally and Cueller were very good pitchers, the hype around Big Ben at the time was McNally or Cueller as a bottom projection of his career.

Anyway the point I was originally making was the the McDonald hype was = Wieters hype. And that thus far Wieters is doing a bit better then McDonald was. (5.1 War vs 7.4 WAR)

[mweb]

Look, my opinion on this matter isn't popular, I get that. And I've had a lot of posters I respect get on my case over it. Whatever. I've said all I have to say. I root for Matt and continue to root for Matt but I stand by my stance that a guy with his expectations struggling to get his OPS over .800 is poor. Very poor.

I'm not sure why you are continually harping on an .800 OPS as if we are still in the offensive boom years. He has a 112 OPS+. That's respectable. Then factor in position/defense and his overall value is solid.

You keep talking about expectations, but there is little question that Wieters is closer to his expectations than is Matusz.

If we were to look at WAR expectations and results, Wieters has a 3.9 fWAR while Matusz has a negative .9. Expectations for Wieters were what, around 6? Matusz maybe 4.5? Well do the math.

Hopefully this season is just a bump in the road to success for Matusz, but as of now, he is a huge disappointment. Hopefully Wieters continues to improve and becomes a 5-6 WAR player, which is not out of the ordinary progression considering this is just his 2nd full season.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I'm not sure why you are continually harping on an .800 OPS as if we are still in the offensive boom years. He has a 112 OPS+. That's respectable. Then factor in position/defense and his overall value is solid.

You keep talking about expectations, but there is little question that Wieters is closer to his expectations than is Matusz.

If we were to look at WAR expectations and results, Wieters has a 3.9 fWAR while Matusz has a negative .9. Expectations for Wieters were what, around 6? Matusz maybe 4.5? Well do the math.

Hopefully this season is just a bump in the road to success for Matusz, but as of now, he is a huge disappointment. Hopefully Wieters continues to improve and becomes a 5-6 WAR player, which is not out of the ordinary progression considering this is just his 2nd full season.

Nope. Not doing this. Sorry.

[mweb]

Nope. Not doing this. Sorry.

Haha, ok.

[Sports Guy]

One thing I will say is that I am tired of hearing that Wieters is doing well "for a catcher".

Who cares?

We need him to do well as a "premium player regardless of position".

[SrMeowMeow]

One thing I will say is that I am tired of hearing that Wieters is doing well "for a catcher".

Who cares?

We need him to do well as a "premium player regardless of position".

4 WAR is 4 WAR. 4 WAR is good for any player of Wieters' age. 4 WAR is a great ramp up to 6 WAR as he hits his prime.

And there's no such thing as "premium player regardless of position." A lot of a player's value is tied up in their position. Cal Ripken would have been a poor player as a 1B. As a shortstop, he was a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Wieters could be the exact same case.

[mweb]

One thing I will say is that I am tired of hearing that Wieters is doing well "for a catcher".

Who cares?

We need him to do well as a "premium player regardless of position".

Reaching premium level is of course dependent on the position one plays and you know this.

I guess you mean premium hitter regardless of position and I really hope he does and becomes a 135 or better OPS+ player.

But anyway, as I've said multiple times when you and others have made this complaint is that he is doing well when compared to the entirety of baseball. The 112 OPS + attests to that. He obviously is not doing as well as we were hoping for though.

[Sports Guy]

4 WAR is 4 WAR. 4 WAR is good for any player of Wieters' age. 4 WAR is a great ramp up to 6 WAR as he hits his prime.

And there's no such thing as "premium player regardless of position." A lot of a player's value is tied up in their position. Cal Ripken would have been a poor player as a 1B. As a shortstop, he was a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Wieters could be the exact same case.

Sure there is...If you are a 6-8 WAR player, you are a premium guy regardless of position.

If you are a 4 WAR guy, you are one of the best catchers but you aren't a premium, upper echelon talent overall.

[Sports Guy]

Reaching premium level is of course dependent on the position one plays and you know this.

I guess you mean premium hitter regardless of position and I really hope he does and becomes a 135 or better OPS+ player.

But anyway, as I've said multiple times when you and others have made this complaint is that he is doing well when compared to the entirety of baseball. The 112 OPS + attests to that. He obviously is not doing as well as we were hoping for though.

And this is really what it is boiling down to and why I think Pedro is saying what he is.

And yes, I am talking premium HITTER.

[mweb]

Sure there is...If you are a 6-8 WAR player, you are a premium guy regardless of position.

If you are a 4 WAR guy, you are one of the best catchers but you aren't a premium, upper echelon talent overall.

I don't really get what you are trying to say. If Wieters puts up a 7 WAR as a catcher, he wouldn't still put up a premium WAR if he was moved to 1B or DH.

[Austin]

And this is really what it is boiling down to and why I think Pedro is saying what he is.

And yes, I am talking premium HITTER.

I'd love for him to become a premium hitter as well but I don't think he's a "bust" because he hasn't met our lofty expectations. He's clearly one of the better catchers in the game. I can understand saying he is a disappointment but a bust? I guess that just depends on your definition of the word but I wouldn't call him that at all.

[mweb]

And this is really what it is boiling down to and why I think Pedro is saying what he is.

And yes, I am talking premium HITTER.

That's fine. But the he's hitting well for a catcher is not a line that even needs to be used by his defenders anymore and it's something that is a poor attempt to downplay his season by his critics since he is having an above average season with the bat compared to all hitters.

Yeah, that's why he's saying it, but it doesn't make it any less absurd.

[mweb]

BTW, dictionary.com's definition of bust is failure. Calling a guy who is likely to have a 4+ WAR in his 2nd full season a huge bust/failure is in itself a failure.

[Sports Guy]

I'd love for him to become a premium hitter as well but I don't think he's a "bust" because he hasn't met our lofty expectations. He's clearly one of the better catchers in the game. I can understand saying he is a disappointment but a bust? I guess that just depends on your definition of the word but I wouldn't call him that at all.

I agree he isn't a bust.

Even if he was never better than last year, he wouldn't be a bust, in the general sense of the word.

You could say he would have been a bust in terms of what the Orioles needed him to become though.

[canonfaz]

Wieters made the All-Star team. Matusz made the MLB record books for worst ERA ever by a pitcher.

No comparison.

/endthread