TT: The Orioles must have an impact offseason

[OFFNY]

That's dangerously close to arguing Nick is a better fielder than Swisher because you say Nick is a better fielder than Swisher.

OK. Is Markakis a better fielder than Swisher ?

[El Gordo]

Nick Swisher is a better fielder than Markakis, huh ? Markakis has been a perennial contender for a Gold Glove Award for his defensive play, including his excellent arm. Nick Swisher hasn't gotten a sniff of a Gold Glove Award. Markakis is easily a better fielder than Swisher.

Markakis: FB -10, Rtot -4. UZR -5

Swisher: FB -5, Rtot +13, UZR +8

I know, your eyeball system is deadly accurate, and these metrics can't be trusted, and you have no personal bias whatsoever.:rolleyestf:

[OFFNY]

Markakis: FB -10, Rtot -4. UZR -5

Swisher: FB -5, Rtot +13, UZR +8

I know, your eyeball system is deadly accurate, and these metrics can't be trusted, and you have no personal bias whatsoever.:rolleyestf:

And ..... would you rather have Swisher in right field than Markakis next year ?

[LookinUp]

I can't stand Swisher. There has to be an outfielder that we haven't heard of that can produce about on his level for much less money and ego.

For pitching, I'm not into Buerhle, but would be willing to go that route for a good price. I'd also prefer Darvish to Wilson. An organization that values going .500 or slightly better now chooses Wilson. An organization that values getting guys now that can help next year AND help when the Bundy's, Machado and Schoop are arriving would be better spending resources, IMO. Not that I don't like Wilson.

[Tony-OH]

Swisher is a bad fielder, and the lineup would not be better with him in it. Perhaps slightly a little better, perhaps the same, perhaps slightly a little worse, but there is nothing about his play on the field that would suggest that he would significantly improve this team if he were chasing down fly balls in our outfield, and hitting for some pretty good (but not overwhelming) power. Acquiring Nick Swisher and paying him between $5 and $10 Million per year would be very Oriole-esque behavior on our part ....... which means not wise.

If you don't think Swisher would be an upgrade over Vlad then I don''t think we have anything else to discuss on this topic. Swisher would be a fine addition to our lineup in LF or DH. BTW, Swisher was a 1.1 dWar player this year, Nick Markakis was -0.4. Reimold was 0.2 last year but its -0.5 in his career.

[CA-ORIOLE]

http://www.orioleshangout.com/blog/tonys-take/331/the-orioles-must-have-an-impact-off-season

Nice article. I don't see Buehrle or Wilson coming here. I could see Darvish though. I'd prefer Willingham over Swisher and I think he'd be more realistic.

[wildcard]

Tony this is the time of the year to dream but that is what you seem to be doing here.

If you believe that "Prince Fielder is a pipe dream because I doubt he’s going to leave a competitive environment and come to Baltimore" and "Albert Pujols is the guy to give the blank check to, but he’s not coming to Baltimore either" then why would you believe that Wilson or Buehrle would come to the O's? There seems to be a break in logic here.

It really doesn't matter if it is MacPhail, Epstein, Cashman or any other GM - selling the 14 year losing O's as the team where top ranked players are to spend their next 5 years is an incredibly hard sell. These FAs are going to get their money and competitive teams are more then willing to match or do better then the best offer if given the chance.

Also, projecting Roberts as your starting 2B when he is much more likely to play 200 ABs then 500 or 600 is probably not the way any GM has to approach next year for the O's at this point.

I think attractive a #1 starter to the O's is folly. The O's have to grow their own. The O's best shot that I can see is to make Johnson a starter and trade Tillman for a pitcher that some team does not want to pay his current locked-in contract. That is what happened with Hardy and Reynolds and its still the best the O's can do. Yes the O's have to spend money on another closer but there is a possible oversupply of closers on the market this winter so that may be doable.

Just my thoughts.

[RavNMadMan]

Nice article. I don't see Buehrle or Wilson coming here. I could see Darvish though. I'd prefer Willingham over Swisher and I think he'd be more realistic.

Right on. I was just about to say that any 2 of the Wilson, Buehrle, Darvish trifecta would be awesome. Practically speaking any 1 of them would be acceptable (well actually good) by me.

[TGO]

I probably don't type these words very frequently but: I have to agree with wildcard. If signing Fielder or Pujols is a pipe dream, then signing Wilson is, too. It's not just that we're a losing team. We are also in what is perceived (rightly or wrongly) as the worst division and one of the worst ballparks for pitchers. You might have to go beyond $100MM to get CJ Wilson to even look in your direction.

Buehrle is somewhat more likely, since he will get less, but you'd still have to massively overpay. Both of these guys will have plenty of attractive options.

[DrungoHazewood]

OK. Is Markakis a better fielder than Swisher ?

According to all the available evidence they're very similar fielders, something like average defensive players. Too close to call one better than the other.

[DrungoHazewood]

Tony this is the time of the year to dream but that is what you seem to be doing here.

If you believe that "Prince Fielder is a pipe dream because I doubt he’s going to leave a competitive environment and come to Baltimore" and "Albert Pujols is the guy to give the blank check to, but he’s not coming to Baltimore either" then why would you believe that Wilson or Buehrle would come to the O's? There seems to be a break in logic here.

It really doesn't matter if it is MacPhail, Epstein, Cashman or any other GM - selling the 14 year losing O's as the team where top ranked players are to spend their next 5 years is an incredibly hard sell. These FAs are going to get their money and competitive teams are more then willing to match or do better then the best offer if given the chance.

Also, projecting Roberts as your starting 2B when he is much more likely to play 200 ABs then 500 or 600 is probably not the way any GM has to approach next year for the O's at this point.

I think attractive a #1 starter to the O's is folly. The O's have to grow their own. The O's best shot that I can see is to make Johnson a starter and trade Tillman for a pitcher that some team does not want to pay his current locked-in contract. That is what happened with Hardy and Reynolds and its still the best the O's can do. Yes the O's have to spend money on another closer but there is a possible oversupply of closers on the market this winter so that may be doable.

Just my thoughts.

That's an excellent post. It's going to be a very, very hard sell to get even one good free agent to sign here, no metter who's the GM. Wilson and Buehrle are going to have plenty of suitors, the O's will have to Werth them to get ink on paper. An impact offseason, to me, means they're overhauling how they do buisness much more than any high caliber talent they try to bring in to the major league roster.

[CA-ORIOLE]

And ..... would you rather have Swisher in right field than Markakis next year ?

Nick in right. Swish in LF. Nick plus arm. Swish poor arm. Swish had the better range in his day and may still have. If I had to pick for RF only at this point, I would clearly pick Nick going forward.

[wildcard]

Don't really disagree with most of your thoughts, but there is a number 1 starter available where all the O's have to do is be prepared to spend (yes, the posting is blind... but they should have a general idea of what $$ they would have to post to definitively win). The contract after the posting for Darvish would figure to be fairly minimal. Certainly not a process where they have to 'attract' a premier player to come here.

Dice-K was supposed to be a #1 starter. He had all the hype we are now hearing about Darvish. How did that turn out for Boston? It hard to look at a guy pitching well in a lesser league and say he will be a #1 starter. The Japanese league is almost like AAA or the Mexican League. The conversion the the ML can be extremely hard to project.

[Tony-OH]

Tony this is the time of the year to dream but that is what you seem to be doing here.

If you believe that "Prince Fielder is a pipe dream because I doubt he’s going to leave a competitive environment and come to Baltimore" and "Albert Pujols is the guy to give the blank check to, but he’s not coming to Baltimore either" then why would you believe that Wilson or Buehrle would come to the O's? There seems to be a break in logic here.

There may be a bit,but I don't but Wilson and Buehrle at the same level as Fielder and Pujols although you could make a valid argument about Wilson because of the lack of top arms on the market this winter.

It really doesn't matter if it is MacPhail, Epstein, Cashman or any other GM - selling the 14 year losing O's as the team where top ranked players are to spend their next 5 years is an incredibly hard sell. These FAs are going to get their money and competitive teams are more then willing to match or do better then the best offer if given the chance.

Maybe, but some GMs are better then others and MacPhail is more from the school of, "I make offer, I wait for player agent to counter, we compromise, we sign player," mode. I don't see Macphail as the kind of guy who is going to get a player excited by where he wants to take the team. Ultimately money is the usual deciding factor, but when you are in the O's situation, if players just see a hopeless situation they are not going to sign here unless you give them a Werth-like ridiculous contract to make it happen.

Also, projecting Roberts as your starting 2B when he is much more likely to play 200 ABs then 500 or 600 is probably not the way any GM has to approach next year for the O's at this point.

I guess I see Andino, Adams and Miclat as fall back if Roberts can't go. the Orioles don't have the luxury or spending more money here so if Roberts can't go, I think they have to go internal.

I think attractive a #1 starter to the O's is folly. The O's have to grow their own. The O's best shot that I can see is to make Johnson a starter and trade Tillman for a pitcher that some team does not want to pay his current locked-in contract. That is what happened with Hardy and Reynolds and its still the best the O's can do. Yes the O's have to spend money on another closer but there is a possible oversupply of closers on the market this winter so that may be doable.

Well I hope not because the last number one starter we developed was Erik Bedard and Mike Mussine before that. As much as I like Britton, I don't see him becoming a number one and with Matusz's stuff taking a step back, it's hard to imagine him behind more than a number two, and that's only if his stuff comes back. Dylan Bundy is the only guy in the system that could be projected as a number one and he hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet. At some point you gotta get one to compete and in my mind, you have to break that 14-year losing streak to get people back. As for Johnson, nothing and I mean nothing makes me think he would be anything more than a back of the rotation starter. His breaking ball is below average and he was never able to keep the velocity as a starter. Does he have a nice change, sure, but I thin his best role is in the bullpen, probably more as a setup guy because of his ability to get groundballs in crucial situations, but I'm not adverse to keeping him in the closer role. Strop might end up a closer anyways.

[Frobby]

Beurle is underrated because he's a terrible fantasy player. In real life though, his ability to get outs, his durability, and his longevity of being pretty consistent overcome his lack of strikeouts. I take a flyer on Bedard but he wil gt no where near the money Buerle will get and rightfully so. Buerle is probably not coming here, especially if MacPhail remains because it's not his M.O to sign guys like this.

It really rankles me when people disrespect guys like Buehrle. He doesn't strike out a lot of guys -- so what? The guy is a tremendously effective pitcher, and because of the nature of his game, he'll probably still be effective when he is 40 years old, like Jamie Moyer. The guy is a pleasure to watch and our young guys could learn a ton about how to PITCH from a guy like that.

But Tony, I will be shocked if we get Wilson, Buehrle or Darvish, no matter who the GM is. The Yankees and the Red Sox both need pitching, and the analysis pretty much ends right there. These guys are going to make an absolute fortune playing in New York or Boston, or they are going to stay in the cities where they are, or go somewhere they really want to be irrespective of the money. They aren't coming to Baltimore unless we blow everyone else out of the water, and it's pretty much impossible to blow NY or Boston out of the water when they are feeling the need for something.