TT: The Orioles must have an impact offseason

[DrungoHazewood]

He's a sinkerball pitcher who pitches to contact. He doesn't need as many K's, and he's pitch efficient with a low walk rate. A slow infield and good defense means he's successful. Theoretically, he might be well suited for our park.

That would be nice if the O's had a good defense.

Would it concern anyone else that the O's would probably have four lefties in the rotation if they signed Wilson and Buehrle (plus Matusz and Britton)?

I'm far less concerned about handedness than quality.

The VMart situation pretty much solidified for me that AM wasn't the guy we want in charge to take us to the next level. I truly believe that the FO thought that we might contend this year. Given that I feel like AM was trying to be aggressive in Free Agency and that VMart was his #1 priority. Given that assumption (and thats all it is) the fact that he couldn't land him says something. He either doesn't recognize or refuses to believe what he is going to have to do to attract any FAs with other options to come here.

Make no mistake about it, there is a premium to be paid to any FA we are trying to lure here.

My big concern was that MacPhail was targeting a 31-year-old catcher as his top free agent target.

[wildcard]

I think this is where the rubber meets the road in terms of whether you believe the advanced defensive metrics are reliable. Quite simply, I don't. There is no system in the world you can show me that will convince me that Nick Swisher is a better RF than Nick Markakis.

In Tom Tango's fan poll, Markakis currently has a 66 rating, Swisher a 46. And it's not just the overall rating. Nick rates much higher in reactions/instincts, speed, hands, release, arm strength and accuracy. The only category where they are considered tied is in "first few steps," where both rank a 48 on a 100 point scale. Among Yankee fans who have voted, Swisher has the lowest ranking of anyone in the Yankee starting lineup.

I realize we all have biases, and sometimes the eyes can play tricks, but in this case, I trust what the Orioles and Yankee fans see.

How many times have argued this same argument. Not as effectively has you just did but still. I am a big believer. UZR just is not accurate enough to trust.

[CA-ORIOLE]

That would be nice if the O's had a good defense.

No reason we can't improve. Kinda integrates into the Reynolds situation and evaluating all the parameters. Certainly the MI was fine last year.

[TiredofLosing20]

My big concern was that MacPhail was targeting a 31-year-old catcher as his top free agent target.

Well, I don't disagree with you there.. But there is a clear difference between plan and execution. He just doesn't seem to understand the market. I am speculating but I am guessing that our offer wasn't our BAFO. If it was then well I am wrong but I think the GM of the Orioles will need to be aggressive when pursuing FA's and AM doesn't appear to be aggressive.

[CA-ORIOLE]

How many times have argg ued this same argument. Not as effectively has you just did but still. I am a big believer. UZR just is not accurate enough to trust.

Looking and comparing Nick's versus Swish's UZR and analyzing all the relevant components (age/range/arm/position) will tell you a pretty detailed story. The ending won't be Swish is sluggo and Nick is a fleet footed gazelle. Yes, in fact Nick is probably better than Swish is at this point of is career in RF, despite what the bottom line number said for last year. Interpreting the UZR breakdowns indicate that as a strong possibility. It's one years worth of UZR numbers so you have to take them into proper context.

[Sports Guy]

Buy and sell.

Trade Guthrie and Jones.

Add Darvish, Floyd/Nolasco, Morales, Kubel and whatever players you get in the other trades.

This team has got to get long term players that can provide us very good production for very little money.

But they also need to add some real proven talent to the team as well.

[VeveJones007]

Buy and sell.

Trade Guthrie and Jones.

Add Darvish, Floyd/Nolasco, Morales, Kubel and whatever players you get in the other trades.

This team has got to get long term players that can provide us very good production for very little money.

But they also need to add some real proven talent to the team as well.

I would check with the ChiSox on Danks before pursuing Floyd/Nolasco. He'd have to agree to an extension, though. He's a free agent after next season.

[wildcard]

If you want talk about the differences in MLB vs NPB, with particular attention to how pitchers are used, travel, playing conditions, and the talent difference; those would all be fair points.

That said, Darvish is younger and has achieved more than Dice-K did before Dice-K came to MLB. Also, by all accounts NPB is closer to MLB than either AAA or the Mexican League.

Darvish's domination has been so profound, it really can not be ignored. I also like that guys like Valentine, Hillman, and D. Johnson have each stated they believe in his ability to lead a ML staff.

Lastly, while the last three years have been a mess for Dice-K, he was 33-15 over his initial two seasons, and has held MLB hitters to a .720 OPS for his career.

I would love to read what Davey Johnson said about Darvish. Do you have a link?

[wildcard]

Former Kansas City Royals manager Trey Hillman, who managed Darvish and the Nippon Ham Fighters before coming to the Royals added:“In my opinion, he’s one of the best in the world at 21. . .He’s got an array of every pitch you’d want to see with the exception of a knuckleball. He throws a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, movement that is natural and really unfair. He has velocity, 92-95, to go with it. He’s a tremendous competitor, a great worker, a great teammate, handles fame very well.”

Jim Callis of Baseball America says that had Darvish been a prospect in the MLB prior to the 2008 season, he would have ranked Darvish as the #3 prospect, behind Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria, but ahead of Joba Chamberlain and Clay Buchholz.Baseball America reports Darvish throws a fastball that sits in the low 90’s but can reach 95-96 mph. He also throws a curveball, slider, splitter and changeup.

One international scout says:“He has plus stuff, and plus command and control to go with plus makeup. If I had a big game, I would be comfortable with him on the mound. He’s a No. 1 starter for me. Absolutely filthy last year, and he played most of the year at 20. We’ll see what happens as the innings pile on his arm, but he would be 1-1 in the draft. . .We’re not talking a ‘blow them away with a fastball and knee-wobbling stuff’ kind of guy. We’re talking a kid with a projectable body who knows how to pitch and is still developing physically—and is really good right now. He still might end up with jaw-dropping stuff. He’s still very young.”

“Right now,” Valentine says, “his stuff is probably sharper than Daisuke’s.”The praise only begins there. Terrmel Sledge, the former Padres outfielder who joined the Fighters this offseason, calls Darvish “one of the five best I’ve ever seen.”

http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/summer...jim&id=3544715

"He's a great pitcher," Davey Johnson said. "He threw the ball good and hit his spots. It was like throwing on the side for him, so he'll probably be ready to pitch Friday or Saturday."

Chris, thanks for posting these quotes.

However, none of three guys you quoted said he could lead a staff,

guys like Valentine, Hillman, and D. Johnson have each stated they believe in his ability to lead a ML staff.

An unnamed scout said he's a #1.

I don't know how strong Davish will be in the ML, but I am interested in what managers like Johnson who have seen him say about him.

Thanks again.

[wildcard]

True enough, hyperbole on my part. Remembered them saying more, but those are the only quotes I could find - so clearly my memory was off.

I saw Nightengale tweet today that "Rival teams are predicting that the #Rangers will be the winners in the Darvish derby, with every scout predicting stardom."

I think the Yankees will get him, and that he will be one of the 10 best pitchers in the game.

I remember reading that Texas wanted Darvish when they traded for Koji. It was just a rumor.

[NewMarketSean]

Ask yourself who can afford Darvish and his posting fee. Now decide if he will be in Boston or NY.

[wildcard]

Ask yourself who can afford Darvish and his posting fee. Now decide if he will be in Boston or NY.

Texas can outbid them both if they want to. And at no individual state tax. They already did that with Cliff Lee. However, Lee wanted to play for the Phillies.

[El Gordo]

The Yankees need to resign CC, and they need another SP. Woud they prefer to spend 100M on Drvish or 80 M on Wilson? If I were the Yankees I'd offer Montero and one of Betances/Bunuelos to TB for Shields. They would be getting a sure thing who has had success in the AL East. It's not written in stone that they will post highest on Darvish. Boston may have reservations as wel,l given their Dice-K experience. What does it hurt to post 60M and see if it is to highest bid? We don't have that much to lose IMO. If we land him we will be getting the best SP available, probably for the next 3-4 years for about 110 M total. We would have to pay at least tha much to get Wilson, and he wont be worth the 80 M the MFY's pay him. Besides if he doesn't resign with TEX, I think he goes to the Angels.

[JTrea81]

Roch says to expect the new GM to take a much more aggressive approach to free agency:

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2011/10/macphail-leaving-organization.html

[SoBo]

Roch says to expect the new GM to take a much more aggressive approach to free agency:

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2011/10/macphail-leaving-organization.html

We'll see... But that's the way it usually works. If the guy that was unsuccessful before was uber aggressive chances are the next guy is going be extremey conservative. Like firing the players coach to hire the drill sargent. Either way I don't know if it really matters.