Yankee blog asks: would you trade Swisher and Montero for Markakis?

[JTrea81]

None of that means dumping him is worthwhile, in and of itself. For someone so willing to take on inefficiency in FA contracts, why do you care about the relatively marginal inefficiency of Markakis's?

I'll overpay for a player that can be worth 4.0-6.0 fWAR. Markakis hasn't sniffed that since 2008 and is on a downward spiral just like Rios was.

Now is the time to move that contract before it does limit us.

Like I said, you can replace his production for less like DeJesus or you could invest the same money upgrade, and wind up with Carlos Beltran, a guy that played in 18 games fewer than Markakis and still in his mid 30s put up a 4.7 fWAR year.

The Jays didn't keep Rios when it was clear he was trending downward. Now is the time for us to realize the same with Markakis...

[JTrea81]

Well he thinks DeJesus and Beltran are as good or better.

They are. Look at the stats.

Markakis has fallen from his 2008 self. He's no longer that type of player and with the money the Orioles need to spend to compete, they can't gamble investing money in Markakis to find out if he'll ever go back to that IMO.

[Sports Guy]

I'll overpay for a player that can be worth 4.0-6.0 fWAR. Markakis hasn't sniffed that since 2008 and is on a downward spiral just like Rios was.

Now is the time to move that contract before it does limit us.

Like I said, you can replace his production for less like DeJesus or you could invest the same money upgrade, and wind up with Carlos Beltran, a guy that played in 18 games fewer than Markakis and still in his mid 30s put up a 4.7 fWAR year.

The Jays didn't keep Rios when it was clear he was trending downward. Now is the time for us to realize the same with Markakis...

Markakis has never been as poor as Rios was when the BJs got rid of him.

That's a terrible comp.

And you can argue that they made the wrong move because Rios was worth 3.7 WAR last year and had Toronto kept him, they may have gotten prospects back for him in a trade.

Either way, the comp is awful.

[Sports Guy]

They are. Look at the stats.

Markakis has fallen from his 2008 self. He's no longer that type of player and with the money the Orioles need to spend to compete, they can't gamble investing money in Markakis to find out if he'll ever go back to that IMO.

Beltran had a 768 OPS in 2010.

If the Orioles signed an aging, oft injured vet coming off a down year, you would cry everyday about horrible they are...and don't say you wouldn't because you do it all the time.

DeJesus had a sub 700 OPS...for someone who is all about offense, you would be upset if they picked him up.

So please, spare us all this bs.

Your point questioning whether Nick will be worth what he is being paid is fine..Where you go from there is awful...but that is usually how you do things. Your main point isn't bad but how you get to that and what you want to do about it are assinine.

[SrMeowMeow]

But Markakis will provide value for the Yanks and Napoli/Rivera provided value for the Jays.

Of course releasing Wells isn't the worst case scenario, he posted a -.3 War this season, so the worst case scenario is they don't release him, he gets at bats, and preforms at his current level or worse the next three seasons.

Releasing Wells is the worst case scenario in a logical analysis, because it relies on projection, not results. But I don't want to fight about it.

[SrMeowMeow]

I am not sure how you want me to answer that.

I do think that he is worth more than what some people(sr cat and jtrea for example) believe...There are a lot of people out there that think he is a very good player and that the years of losing and having no protection in the lineup have taken their toll on him.

I don't think you would find a shortage of teams after him and I believe we could get more for him than many think.

On top of that, I don't think his salary is as big a detriment as some believe but I do think we may have to pay a few million towards the money he is owed.

Either way, it should be pretty clear that Adam Jones is the one that needs to be shopped and dealt, not Nick.

Maybe he's a great player who's been crushed down by protection and losing to degrees never before seen in recorded history, but, you know, probably not. I'm comfortable pegging him optimistically as a 2-4 win player annually over the rest of his contract, more likely to be 2 wins than 4, and he's getting paid like a 3 win player. I don't think he's a bad player, I just don't see a lot of surplus value in an 800 OPS right fielder with even a +5 glove (very generous IMO) making 15M.

Surely you agree that Montero for Markakis would be a massacre, right?

[Sports Guy]

Maybe he's a great player who's been crushed down by protection and losing to degrees never before seen in recorded history, but, you know, probably not. I'm comfortable pegging him optimistically as a 2-4 win player annually over the rest of his contract, more likely to be 2 wins than 4, and he's getting paid like a 3 win player. I don't think he's a bad player, I just don't see a lot of surplus value in an 800 OPS right fielder with even a +5 glove (very generous IMO) making 15M.

Surely you agree that Montero for Markakis would be a massacre, right?

Its not a massacre because Montero has negative defensive value right now and if he only ends up being an 800ish OPS player, he really is nothing special.

And don't call me Shirley.

[Frobby]

Beltran had a 768 OPS in 2010.

If the Orioles signed an aging, oft injured vet coming off a down year, you would cry everyday about horrible they are...and don't say you wouldn't because you do it all the time.

DeJesus had a sub 700 OPS...for someone who is all about offense, you would be upset if they picked him up.

So please, spare us all this bs.

Your point questioning whether Nick will be worth what he is being paid is fine..Where you go from there is awful...but that is usually how you do things. Your main point isn't bad but how you get to that and what you want to do about it are assinine.

Beltran, when he is healthy, is generally a better player than Nick. However, he will be 35-37 the next three years, while Nick will be 28-30. And, he's been hurt 2 of the last 3 years. Overall, I'd say Nick is the safer bet, and it will be interesting to see what kind of contract Boras demands for Beltran.

DeJesus hit .240 this year and will be 32-34 the next three seasons. He has much more downside than Nick, and not as much upside.

I guess if either was much cheaper, you could make the case that it would be better to dump Nick and spend less.

I'm not going to trash Trea on this -- if one truly thinks that 2011, or even 2009-10, is Nick's probable ceiling now, then you can make a case that you'd get more bang for your buck by signing Beltran or DeJesus for less and spending the remaining money elsewhere. But these guys present a lot of risk, and I doubt you'd get either to Baltimore cheaply.

[Sports Guy]

Beltran, when he is healthy, is generally a better player than Nick. However, he will be 35-37 the next three years, while Nick will be 28-30. And, he's been hurt 2 of the last 3 years. Overall, I'd say Nick is the safer bet, and it will be interesting to see what kind of contract Boras demands for Beltran.

DeJesus hit .240 this year and will be 32-34 the next three seasons. He has much more downside than Nick, and not as much upside.

I guess if either was much cheaper, you could make the case that it would be better to dump Nick and spend less.

I'm not going to trash Trea on this -- if one truly thinks that 2011, or even 2009-10, is Nick's probable ceiling now, then you can make a case that you'd get more bang for your buck by signing Beltran or DeJesus for less and spending the remaining money elsewhere. But these guys present a lot of risk, and I doubt you'd get either to Baltimore cheaply.

I don't have an issue with that either....That's not where his argument is poor...Its the rest of it that is so poor.

[Stotle]

Its not a massacre because Montero has negative defensive value right now and if he only ends up being an 800ish OPS player, he really is nothing special.

And don't call me Shirley.

But, you also get all that money you were spending on Markakis, so it's Montero + whatever you buy for $12-15 million per for three years, less Monetro's minimum salary. It's a pretty big massacre unless Montero flops.

[Sports Guy]

But, you also get all that money you were spending on Markakis, so it's Montero + whatever you buy for $12-15 million per for three years, less Monetro's minimum salary. It's a pretty big massacre unless Montero flops.

Yea, I know...I am not saying I wouldn't make the deal...I just need to see more of Montero before I say its a massacre.

I also think Nick will increase his production and get to a 3-4 WAR player.

[Frobby]

Yea, I know...I am not saying I wouldn't make the deal...I just need to see more of Montero before I say its a massacre.

I also think Nick will increase his production and get to a 3-4 WAR player.

I do, too, but I have a hard time giving a good explanation of why. Is it just that we've seen him do better, he's young enough, and we're biased in his favor because he is one of the few successes our farm system has produced in the last decade?

[Sports Guy]

I do, too, but I have a hard time giving a good explanation of why. Is it just that we've seen him do better, he's young enough, and we're biased in his favor because he is one of the few successes our farm system has produced in the last decade?

Part of it is that he has done it before...Part of it was that his LD% was very high last year but his BABIP was well below his career norm.

Its hard for me to think he won't get back to a 40+ double guy and if he works hard this offseason, I would expect him to push 20 homers...If he does those things and his BABIP normalizes, you will see all of his numbers go back up.

I just hope Nick is willing to do what it takes for him to be a better player and not just be satisfied with what he is.

To me, he is kind of like BMat...How much offseason work do you want to put into things to make you a better player?

[SrMeowMeow]

Its not a massacre because Montero has negative defensive value right now and if he only ends up being an 800ish OPS player, he really is nothing special.

And don't call me Shirley.

Basically, there are good odds Markakis ends up being paid more than he's worth. And it's almost guaranteed that Montero will greatly outperform his miniscule salary for the next six years.

I feel like people are claiming uncertainty just to avoid committing to a position. If the players were reversed, 100% of the board would say that they'd storm the warehouse if we traded Montero away for Markakis. Can you imagine that?

Sure, Markakis could be average 4 WAR for the rest of his contract. But I think it's more likely that he doesn't. That's my analysis and I haven't seen a single iota of hard evidence to suggest that I'm wrong. For the record, I have no problem with supporting him and believing in him. But if you really think Markakis has a better chance to average 4 WAR than 2 WAR going forward...put your money down.

[Sports Guy]

Basically, there are good odds Markakis ends up being paid more than he's worth. And it's almost guaranteed that Montero will greatly outperform his miniscule salary for the next six years.

I feel like people are claiming uncertainty just to avoid committing to a position. If the players were reversed, 100% of the board would say that they'd storm the warehouse if we traded Montero away for Markakis. Can you imagine that?

Sure, Markakis could be average 4 WAR for the rest of his contract. But I think it's more likely that he doesn't. That's my analysis and I haven't seen a single iota of hard evidence to suggest that I'm wrong. For the record, I have no problem with supporting him and believing in him. But if you really think Markakis has a better chance to average 4 WAR than 2 WAR going forward...put your money down.

I have never said that I wouldn't deal Nick for Montero...I am just saying that as of right now, I am not convinced that it is a "massacre", as you put it.

I would prefer to explore other avenues for Nick though.

And where did I say that I think Nick will AVERAGE a 4 WAR going forward?