Yoennis Cespedes?

[Pickles]

This guy has been around for awhile he is not a flavor of the week imo. He is not a 19 year old shortstop out of the D.R. He is 26 and from a refined Cuban team, that has one of the best teams in Latin America.

As opposed to never throwing any money at all? This team needs YOUNG talent. Inefficiency is throwing away money on Gregg, Vlad, Gonzo, Lee and Atkins. There's a darn good reason Cespedes is the "flavor of the month." He's young, athletic and can play baseball a little bit. Sure, O's stay far away... :angryfire:

Throwing good money after bad money isn't being effecient. And for all the angst about Gregg, and yes it was a poor signing, was the Chapman signing any better? I don't think so- I mean, unless you like guys who walk 8 per 9 for 30 mil guaranteed. But I don't.

[allstar1579]

Let me preface this by saying, I think one of the biggest things the O's need to do is develop a prescence on the international side of talent development/accquisition. I've been saying it for years and I'll continue to say it.

However, the idea that they are stupid/or not doing their due dilligence by throwing 30 million at this guy, or any of them for that matter, is silly. Plain silly.

MOST of these big ticket international FA's don't work out. Most of them. Look at Dice-K; look at the Cuban SS the Red Sox got two years ago; look at Chapman; look at Iona (or whatever his name is) in Oak.

AM was very correct when he said that surfing the top end of the international FA market is not nearly as cost effecient as the Rule 5 draft. It's really not even that disputable.

I mean, we have posters saying they'll throw 30 mil at this guy but they want to see a little more video first. That's hysterical. The guy is a great athlete; great- that has very little bearing on his ability to play ML baseball. Lebron James might be the best athlete in the world- do you think he can hit a curveball, or take a walk? You know damn well he can't.

They need to get more active in the international market- without a doubt. But spread the money around- get quantity and from that quantity you'll get some quality. I'd rather have the Schoops, the Tejadas, the Vlads, than the Chapmans, the Ionas, the

Dice-Ks.

This team needs talent, and they need to be effecient in how they accquire it. Throwing big money at every international FA flavor of the week is not the way to go about it.

Completely different circumstances. This is more akin to Yu Darvish than a FA flavor of the week.

Dice-K was great and worth his contract before he got injured, and honestly everyone saw the injury coming because of his high pitch totals through the years. Iglesias the SS you mentioned will be their starting SS sometime this year and is already one of the top defensive SS in all of baseball. Chapman has needed some refinement of his secondaries so he hasn't been rushed, but he's got a 100mph fastball and has been unhittable in some stretches. Ynoa in OAK was graded as being the best latin pitcher since Felix Hernandez after he got here and was evaluated, but he had TJ surgery in 2009, you can't predict that stuff. Sano is another one in MIN and is one of the top 30 prospects in all of baseball at 3B.

So every example you listed are actually instances where they DID work out.

Why is it hysterical that some of us who know how to see video and evaluate amateur players want to see more of it before we sign off on paying the guy $6m?

You know what's hysterical? Trying to make a point and every example you use proves the opposite of what you are preaching.

I get the gist of what you are saying, and in general I agree with it, but don't try to be condescending laughing about people you don't know wanting to make a more educated decision. Maybe if you did a little more homework yourself before using a bunch of examples that hurt your POV it wouldn't be as hysterical as it is.

[allstar1579]

Throwing good money after bad money isn't being effecient. And for all the angst about Gregg, and yes it was a poor signing, was the Chapman signing any better? I don't think so- I mean, unless you like guys who walk 8 per 9 for 30 mil guaranteed. But I don't.

I love that you keep using Chapman as an example like he is some failed prospect. He's got 60 career IP in the ML, he's got a 2/1 K/BB ratio a 3.27 ERA, .154 BAA, and about a 13 K/9 ratio. All in his first 60 IP while trying to work on his secondaries. If you are comparing him to other RP and their contracts he is worth every bit of the $5m a year he's earning.

[shylock]

Yeah, I get his point as well, but the O's don't even make the attempt to go after any IFA's. There's a reason guys are worth what they're getting paid. This organization needs to be competitive in international signings if they wish to have any shot in the AL East. Every organization in baseball but the O's are watching this guy. I'm sorry if 6 million on a 25 year old seems like ineffiecient money, but these are the risks that good ballclubs take.

[shylock]

I love that you keep using Chapman as an example like he is some failed prospect. He's got 60 career IP in the ML, he's got a 2/1 K/BB ratio a 3.27 ERA, .154 BAA, and about a 13 K/9 ratio. All in his first 60 IP while trying to work on his secondaries. If you are comparing him to other RP and their contracts he is worth every bit of the $5m a year he's earning.

I agree. I'd take Chapman's 5 million dollar salary in a heartbeat.

[Pickles]

Completely different circumstances. This is more akin to Yu Darvish than a FA flavor of the week.

Dice-K was great and worth his contract before he got injured, and honestly everyone saw the injury coming because of his high pitch totals through the years. Iglesias the SS you mentioned will be their starting SS sometime this year and is already one of the top defensive SS in all of baseball. Chapman has needed some refinement of his secondaries so he hasn't been rushed, but he's got a 100mph fastball and has been unhittable in some stretches. Ynoa in OAK was graded as being the best latin pitcher since Felix Hernandez after he got here and was evaluated, but he had TJ surgery in 2009, you can't predict that stuff. Sano is another one in MIN and is one of the top 30 prospects in all of baseball at 3B.

So every example you listed are actually instances where they DID work out.

Good Lord, then I'd hate to see the examples where they DIDN'T work out.

Dick-K got paid 100 mil and has pitched ~ 600 innings with a 108 ERA+. That's working out? That's effecient? I don't think so.

Chapman had a decent ERA last year, decent, but he also pitched a grand total of 50 innings and walked over 40 guys. And for the low price of almost 4 million. That's working out? I don't think so. If the O's signed a RP on the FA market and got those results for that kind of money they'd be crucified.

I hope Iglesias is Bos starting SS next year. He put up a ~550 OPS in AAA last year. He's not a ML starting SS- not w that bat. That's not working out either.

Iona's working out? He recieved a record bonus and he's pitched 9 total innings in his career. How can you justify that? And yes, it's due to injury, but the inherent risk of these guys is EXACTLY WHY you don't throw huge money their way.

You think these examples hurt my case? Come now, look at it honestly. They don't. They are my case in point. I mean, you're trying to justify 10 million dollars to a SS who can't get his OPS over 600 in AAA; a record bonus for a guy who's pitched all of 9 innings; 100 million for a fairly average pitcher w injury problems; and 30 million for a reliever w a 8 BB rate.

Look at it objectively. These guys haven't been worth the money. And yes, there's a Sano here and there, but he hasn't done anything above A ball yet either so let's not act as if he's money in the bank just yet, but most of them don't earn anywhere near the kind of money they get at the top of the international FA market. That's almost indisputable fact.

[Pickles]

I love that you keep using Chapman as an example like he is some failed prospect. He's got 60 career IP in the ML, he's got a 2/1 K/BB ratio a 3.27 ERA, .154 BAA, and about a 13 K/9 ratio. All in his first 60 IP while trying to work on his secondaries. If you are comparing him to other RP and their contracts he is worth every bit of the $5m a year he's earning.

I agree. I'd take Chapman's 5 million dollar salary in a heartbeat.

He's been paid 10 million dollars. He's pitched like 60 innings over two years. He'd have to Mariano Rivera to come close to being worth that kind of money. And he isn't. Not w that walk rate- which is getting worse btw.

[Sports Guy]

Pickles brings up some good points...but here is my question:

How many big ticket Int'l FAs have failed who are position players?

I am not talking about the 16 year old guys...I am talking about the more established players.

Pickles is using DiceK in his example and that's fine..but comparing apples to apples, you have guys like Matsui and Ichiro as big money guys.

So, who has failed amongst the positional talent?

[Pickles]

Pickles brings up some good points...but here is my question:

How many big ticket Int'l FAs have failed who are position players?

I am not talking about the 16 year old guys...I am talking about the more established players.

Pickles is using DiceK in his example and that's fine..but comparing apples to apples, you have guys like Matsui and Ichiro as big money guys.

So, who has failed amongst the positional talent?

I do think, inherently, positional talent is less risky. That doesn't just apply to international talent of course. I think we mostly would all agree w that.

Iglesias is a guy who hasn't lived up to expectations. I would think not. I mean 10 mill is a lot to spend on Luis Hernandez, yes? I agree that Matsui and Ichiro, obviously, both worked out just fine. But those guys came from Japan; it's relatively easy to get a bead on their performance compared to the Cuban League, no? I guess, let me turn it around, who are some big time ticket guys from the Carribean who DID work out?

The big stars of the last 10-20 years have been guys that flew under the radar- Tejada, Cano, Vlad, etc. That's not to say you don't have to throw 6 figures out to get these guys, but surfing the very top of the market just isn't effecient.

[allstar1579]

Yeah, I get his point as well, but the O's don't even make the attempt to go after any IFA's. There's a reason guys are worth what they're getting paid. This organization needs to be competitive in international signings if they wish to have any shot in the AL East. Every organization in baseball but the O's are watching this guy. I'm sorry if 6 million on a 25 year old seems like ineffiecient money, but these are the risks that good ballclubs take.

Yep. In general it's probably a better use of money to spread out a ton of 300k bonuses than it is to plop down on one guy like this. BUT sometimes you have to look at these guys as more of a ML FA than an IFA. You have to trust your scouts. If your pro scouts said, oh yeah, Sizemore is healthy and he should return to his pre-injury numbers, you'd sign him and wouldn't think twice. You need to trust your international scouts the same way, especially with the Cuban players because they are more like AAA/AAAA than the A/AA most IFA are playing in.

[shylock]

I'm sure plenty have failed, but what would be the difference in comparing it to the rule 4 signings? How many first round picks have the O's signed who turned into busts? Many enjoyed a signing bonus. It's the same type of risk, but the difference is that you can sign as many as your team can afford.

[Sports Guy]

I do think, inherently, positional talent is less risky. That doesn't just apply to international talent of course. I think we mostly would all agree w that.

Iglesias is a guy who hasn't lived up to expectations. I would think not. I mean 10 mill is a lot to spend on Luis Hernandez, yes? I agree that Matsui and Ichiro, obviously, both worked out just fine. But those guys came from Japan; it's relatively easy to get a bead on their performance compared to the Cuban League, no? I guess, let me turn it around, who are some big time ticket guys from the Carribean who DID work out?

The big stars of the last 10-20 years have been guys that flew under the radar- Tejada, Cano, Vlad, etc. That's not to say you don't have to throw 6 figures out to get these guys, but surfing the very top of the market just isn't effecient.

But you are talking about guys who were very young. Cespedes is 26 and has established himself. He is different than an 18 y/o kid.

And Iglesias only has to be worth around 2.5 WAR to justify the contract they gave him. His defense alone may make him worth that quickly.

I do agree with you that I would rather see the quantity over quality thing but sometimes, I would like to see them make a splash with a big ticket Int'l player...You wouldn't want Sano right now?

[MikeAD]

Pickles brings up some good points...but here is my question:

How many big ticket Int'l FAs have failed who are position players?

I am not talking about the 16 year old guys...I am talking about the more established players.

Pickles is using DiceK in his example and that's fine..but comparing apples to apples, you have guys like Matsui and Ichiro as big money guys.

So, who has failed amongst the positional talent?

You mention Matsui and Ichiro as success. Fukudome has been ON, nothing of what he was thought to be, but he isn't a "disaster." Kazuo Matsui was a disaster. Jury is still out on Tsuyoshi Nishioka, but he hardly played in Japan.

From that list, looks like you are safer to go with the position players, I guess, but its still a small sample size.

As far as players from the Caribbean and Latin America, the list is so long, you can find great successes and great failures, but I don't see why a positional player couldn't make the adjustment. There are way too many pitchers that fail to make the jump.

[Lucky Jim]

Completely different circumstances. This is more akin to Yu Darvish than a FA flavor of the week.

[1]Dice-K was great and worth his contract before he got injured, and honestly everyone saw the injury coming because of his high pitch totals through the years. Iglesias the SS you mentioned will be their starting SS sometime this year and is already one of the top defensive SS in all of baseball. [2]Chapman has needed some refinement of his secondaries so he hasn't been rushed, but he's got a 100mph fastball and has been unhittable in some stretches. [3]Ynoa in OAK was graded as being the best latin pitcher since Felix Hernandez after he got here and was evaluated, but he had TJ surgery in 2009, you can't predict that stuff. [4]Sano is another one in MIN and is one of the top 30 prospects in all of baseball at 3B.

So every example you listed are actually instances where they DID work out.

Why is it hysterical that some of us who know how to see video and evaluate amateur players want to see more of it before we sign off on paying the guy $6m?

You know what's hysterical? Trying to make a point and every example you use proves the opposite of what you are preaching.

I get the gist of what you are saying, and in general I agree with it, but don't try to be condescending laughing about people you don't know wanting to make a more educated decision. Maybe if you did a little more homework yourself before using a bunch of examples that hurt your POV it wouldn't be as hysterical as it is.

Having grown bored with agreeing with you, now I'll argue against you. [i'm kidding. Though I imagine more than a few people may imagine this is how I operate.] I do have some issues with what you've written, however.

[1] "Dice-K was great and worth his contract before he got injured, and honestly everyone saw the injury coming because of his high pitch totals through the years."

First, Matsuzaka was, by all accounts, a bad signing due to an inflated contract. He's provided a total of 10 WAR for his career, and only 3.4 over his last three years. He never put up an FIP of xFIP under 4.00. His elevated pitch counts are, in part, due to personal style - however, they're also emblematic of the struggles transitioning from the shallower talent pool in Japan to the US (where line-ups, unlike the Nippon League, are full of guys who can hurt you.) If everyone knew, or could predict, his pending injury issues, he wouldn't have been the prospect he was, or have received the contract he did.

[2] "Chapman has needed some refinement of his secondaries so he hasn't been rushed, but he's got a 100mph fastball and has been unhittable in some stretches."

Chapman needed refinement of everything. And I don't think there are many who believe, at this point, that he's ever going to be an MLB starter. In the end, he may provide the full $30m value of his contract, but it's hard to believe that his actual value as a reliever couldn't be found for less money. Hard-throwing relievers are probably not the best target for a 8-figure contract (Int'l-FA wise, or even MLB FA-wise), given the risk of arm-injury, translating performance, variability of performance and even age issues.

[3]"Ynoa in OAK was graded as being the best latin pitcher since Felix Hernandez after he got here and was evaluated, but he had TJ surgery in 2009, you can't predict that stuff."

You have to predict that stuff. Or at least factor it in: pitching prospects, when you have an opportunity to watch them constantly against good amateur competition and can verify all factual background info, carry a lot of risk. You don't get to disregard that because they're Int'l FA. Rather, Int'l FA pitchers carry all of that risk and a ton more.

[4] "Sano is another one in MIN and is one of the top 30 prospects in all of baseball at 3B."

This we agree on. Sano was awesome last year. There are questions, but the power is real.

[5] Iglesias put up a sub-.700 OPS at AA and a sub-.600 OPS at AAA. The Sox may think he'll be playing shortstop for them this year, but I'm skeptical. He's an all-world fielder, to be sure. But he's no lock to be a starting SS, and his upside might be Cesar Izturis. That said, Iglesias may be worth it. Seems an OK risk to me, but not one I'm enamored with. I would guess similar production can be found in both the Rule IV draft and the Int'l FA market for a lot less money.

In the end, you're both over-stating your point.

[shylock]

But you are talking about guys who were very young. Cespedes is 26 and has established himself. He is different than an 18 y/o kid.

And Iglesias only has to be worth around 2.5 WAR to justify the contract they gave him. His defense alone may make him worth that quickly.

I do agree with you that I would rather see the quantity over quality thing but sometimes, I would like to see them make a splash with a big ticket Int'l player...You wouldn't want Sano right now?

Exactly!!! Not once have the O's signed the best international player offered. They didn't even show interest. Sadly, the Pirates(who have lost longer than we have) received Sano.