Roch: Duquette confirms no Fielder, Reynolds to 1B?

[clapdiddy]

I've said numerous times that Reynolds shouldn't have a glove on his hand. He is a butcher, period. IMO, he looked good at first after he first made the move but eventually you saw his deficiencies start to creep in again over there. Balls were getting under his glove, I mean literally under his glove on balls hit one to two steps away. I saw him at least once drop a ball thrown to him at his chest by either Hardy or Andino on a relay. People were somehow impressed because he had a knack for picking balls that every ML 1B should pick regularly and making some diving plays. The problem was too often the routine balls. I mean is he better at 1st than 3rd?? Yeah, because one of his biggest issues at 3rd was coming in on balls which he was horrible at and you eliminate so many more potential throwing errors by playing 1st. He's a DH, but DD seem content to "hide" him at first so they can have average offensive production at the position and have flexibility at DH.

I'm hopeful that DD is just saying "all the right things" about the players on his roster. Having Reynolds at 1B and Davis at 3B would be a nightmare.

I think that Davis is a better first baseman than Reynolds...and I don't think it's close.

[Sports Guy]

Agree he struggles coming in on the ball...But he has pretty good range side to side.

[Sports Guy]

I'm hopeful that DD is just saying "all the right things" about the players on his roster. Having Reynolds at 1B and Davis at 3B would be a nightmare.

I think that Davis is a better first baseman than Reynolds...and I don't think it's close.

Right...That's the puzzling thing.

Davis has always been known as a guy with a solid glove at first and one who will struggle at third...Yet, you want to switch those 2?

If you don't want Reynolds at third, then DH him or put him in LF.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'll give the benefit of the doubt to the Orioles talent evaluators with respect to the proposed alignment with Reynolds/Davis. Other than it should be disregarded, Reynolds uzr at first isn't even worth noting imo.

It's a data point. It's similar to saying someone hit .175 in 200 at bats. Not all that meaningful, but not completely meaningless either.

He's a career minus 10.5 uzr/150 at third. His FB translates to a minus 13 runs per /150. It's a huge stretch to say he was improving. You don't throw up minus 30 runs because of some mental errors. He can't play a slow roller to save his life and he's not partiulary coordinated. If anything you can assume he'd perform at his career levels in a optimistic case.

Yea, I don't think you can put any confindence in the idea that Reynolds was improving at third. With the uncertainty in UZR and related metrics all you can reliably say is that he was a -7 +/- 5 third baseman, or something like that. His year-to-year variations, prior to 2011, where all within the margin of error. Doesn't mean much that they happened to slightly trend in one direction.

[Bradysburns]

SSS is irrelevant since we don't use numbers. Buck's and DD's eyes tell them he is better at 1B. They are in a better position to judge so there is nothing else to say about that. As to his plan I'm waiting to see these pitchers he's getting. That's what's most important IMO.

Agreed. Arguing that Reynolds should be at third, well, I don't even know how to respond to that. I'm not even arguing that he's a good defensive first baseman - only that if you have to choose, you put him at first.

[Slappy]

I think most agree that Reynolds is a subpar defensive player wherever you put him. Putting him at first limits his liability in the field, according to the defensive spectrum anyway. But I definitely want his .815 career bat in the lineup.

I'm not as familiar with Chris Davis at third. Didn't see him enough there last year, and don't believe he has enough career innings there to make a judgement. Relying on him at 3rd seems like a more auspicious decision than moving Reynolds to 1st. But at least we do have (mediocre) options at 3rd if he falls on his face.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Agree he struggles coming in on the ball...But he has pretty good range side to side.

I agree with your point that Reynolds has athletic ability. I agree there was enough reason to look at the stats and his athletic ability and reason he might be improving there. I can see why the O's where optimistic here. I just see a guy who has poor hand eye coordination (maybe that's why he can't hit a baseball). That's not just coming in on a slow roller but transitioning from catching to throwing. While his other skills might be ok, I just don't see him overcoming that. That's not mental, it's a physical limitation imo. It should be mitigated at first and I understand the value/positional argument.

[Bradysburns]

When baseball people talk about market, they're not talking about number of people in the area and how much money they have. They're talking about how well the current franchise in the area does at getting that money in their pockets.

You keep saying the O's are a huge market team, but that doesn't make it any more true. They O's could, potentially, be a large-ish market team and have much higher revenues if they did much better on the field and marketed better and got more money out of the Nats' part of MASN.

But they haven't done any of that. They have piddling revenues compared to the Sox and Yanks. Or the Cubs or the Angels.

And teams (or any business for that matter, at least one without a gov't loan) don't go blow truckloads of cash they don't have based on what their revenue streams might be like in five years if everything goes right.

As I said before, Reynolds' isn't a better first baseman. At least not by the available data. UZR and TZ and +/- all show he's farther below average at first than at third. SSS caveats apply.

Stats aside for a moment... I think just eyeballs tell a story here. Most of Reynolds' issues at third, from what I saw, had to do not with glove work, per se. He could catch/stop the ball fine. It seemed to me that the breakdown came in the transition between catching/stopping and throwing. If that's true, and from what I saw it was on many occasions, then it makes sense that he'd be better at first - in terms of fielding percentage. You're largely eliminating the one part of fielding that he seems to have problem with - transitioning and throwing to another base. That said, I am not saying he's consistently good anywhere in the field. But if you gotta choose, he'll do less damage defensively at first.

[allstar1579]

I agree with your point that Reynolds has athletic ability. I agree there was enough reason to look at the stats and his athletic ability and reason he might be improving there. I can see why the O's where optimistic here. I just see a guy who has poor hand eye coordination (maybe that's why he can't hit a baseball). That's not just coming in on a slow roller but transitioning from catching to throwing. While his other skills might be ok, I just don't see him overcoming that. That's not mental, it's a physical limitation imo. It should be mitigated at first and I understand the value/positional argument.

That is a bigger defensive factor for me personally than the range that everyone makes a big deal about. I'd take a guy that makes every play he gets to over a guy that gets to a lot of balls but can't make the play. Good hands are really underrated in the INF sometimes. You can cheat range a little bit with good positioning and reading the play, you can't fake good hands.

You bring up a good point, the low BA and the poor hands in the field could add up to a little bit of a vision problem. I wonder if he's had that checked lately. (I mean contribute to the problem, not the answer to the problem before anyone reads too much)

[CA-ORIOLE]

Most of Reynolds' issues at third, from what I saw, had to do not with glove work, per se. He could catch/stop the ball fine. It seemed to me that the breakdown came in the transition between catching/stopping and throwing.

That's what I saw.

[allstar1579]

That's what I saw.

Sounds like a footwork problem, that can still be an issue at the other corner, lots of good footwork needed over there. Was it more in transitioning from glove to throwing, or on the actual throw?

[Dipper9]

Wow. This is amazing. DD tells us a bunch of times now not to expect big name free agents, and yet we still think we have interest in Fielder. Have we learned nothing from the past. I swear, this picture is what a lot of Hangouters remind me of...

[CA-ORIOLE]

Sounds like a footwork problem, that can still be an issue at the other corner, lots of good footwork needed over there. Was it more in transitioning from glove to throwing, or on the actual throw?

Transitioning from glove to throwing. On the slow rollers it was picking up, transitioning and throwing. I think his throwing is fine when he can set.

[DrungoHazewood]

Stats aside for a moment... I think just eyeballs tell a story here. Most of Reynolds' issues at third, from what I saw, had to do not with glove work, per se. He could catch/stop the ball fine. It seemed to me that the breakdown came in the transition between catching/stopping and throwing. If that's true, and from what I saw it was on many occasions, then it makes sense that he'd be better at first - in terms of fielding percentage. You're largely eliminating the one part of fielding that he seems to have problem with - transitioning and throwing to another base. That said, I am not saying he's consistently good anywhere in the field. But if you gotta choose, he'll do less damage defensively at first.

Maybe. Maybe not. He's a poor third baseman. But for him to be as valuable, overall, at first as he is at third he needs to make up 15 runs. I can believe he's a better first baseman than third baseman. But I don't think he's 15 runs better.

[allstar1579]

Transitioning from glove to throwing. On the slow rollers it was picking up, transitioning and throwing. I think his throwing is fine when he can set.

Yeah, that's a hands thing. Either not WATCHING the ball from his glove into his grip, or like you said just poor eye-hand coordination. On the rollers it can be a combination, it is a lot of moving parts to field with the glove, make the transition, and time the body motion to go with the throwing motion to get the throw off. I was a RH 1B, so I kinda developed my own spin move for plays at 1st-2nd-3rd where I would start turning my body as I fielded it, used the "spin" part getting my footwork right, and then using my momentum to step into the throw. After a couple days doing it, it was really natural timing wise, but coming to home on a play always felt more awkward cause I had to get the ball to the other side of my body and back to throw, so I could do a 360 or I had to throw off balance on the run.