If Fielder goes to M's, Reynolds/Smoak trade possible?

[SilentJames]

Reynolds is the closest thing we have to a reliable MOO bat. I don't see Seattle taking a guy who either hits homers or K's in that ballpark. Powerhitters tend to go to Seattle to die, one would think they'd have to realize that.

I would love to grab Smoak, and I will give you the trades and the fact he played in that cavernous park in Seattle. But I think we could have him for less than Reynolds.

[Sports Guy]

Reynolds is the closest thing we have to a reliable MOO bat. I don't see Seattle taking a guy who either hits homers or K's in that ballpark. Powerhitters tend to go to Seattle to die, one would think they'd have to realize that.

I would love to grab Smoak, and I will give you the trades and the fact he played in that cavernous park in Seattle. But I think we could have him for less than Reynolds.

Reynolds can hit balls out of any park.

[SilentJames]

Reynolds can hit balls out of any park.

You're right, but not all 37 of his homers were moon shots. If he hovers near 37-40 in any given year he is probably going to be closer to 30-33 in Safeco.

350+ is a cheap homer down the RF line there.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2011_4522&type=ballpark

It will impact his numbers, just as we say it has impacted everyone else. If I am Seattle I am finding a doubles guy, I would ask for Reimold.

[Lucky Jim]

You're right, but not all 37 of his homers were moon shots. If he hovers near 37-40 in any given year he is probably going to be closer to 30-33 in Safeco.

350+ is a cheap homer down the RF line there.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2011_4522&type=ballpark

It will impact his numbers, just as we say it has impacted everyone else. If I am Seattle I am finding a doubles guy, I would ask for Reimold.

If an environment suppresses all homeruns, those 30-33 HRs take on additional value, no? That said, I could see Reynolds putting up something like this:

2007	Mariners	121	491	21	58	63	1	10.4 %	20.4 %	.194	.217	.205	.295	.399	.305	84	-12.4	-1.0	-1.5

[SilentJames]

If an environment suppresses all homeruns, those 30-33 HRs take on additional value, no? That said, I could see Reynolds putting up something like this:

2007	Mariners	121	491	21	58	63	1	10.4 %	20.4 %	.194	.217	.205	.295	.399	.305	84	-12.4	-1.0	-1.5

Fair enough on the homer thing. I just get the feeling that we wouldn't have to part ways with Reynolds to get Smoak.

[JayThomas]

I typically see people throw out home/road splits as if to suggest that park factors are irrelevant. Perhaps Smoak did feel more comfortable hitting at home. Perhaps it was a SSS. Regardless, we would expect that .771 home OPS to be higher in a neutral park. That's where the park factors come into play.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/doublesFactor

Those numbers are really really unintuitive for Safeco. According to that table, there are 17 fields in MLB worse for hitting homers than Safeco - ie, Safeco is in the top half of all stadiums for hitting homers. Further, given the size of the field, I would think that there would be way more hits - there's way more ground to cover in the outfield. I don't get these ESPN MLB park factors at all.

[RVAbird]

Those numbers are really really unintuitive for Safeco. According to that table, there are 17 fields in MLB worse for hitting homers than Safeco - ie, Safeco is in the top half of all stadiums for hitting homers. Further, given the size of the field, I would think that there would be way more hits - there's way more ground to cover in the outfield. I don't get these ESPN MLB park factors at all.

Intuition is often unaligned with reality. These park factors come from raw data. There's noise in there, to be sure, but this is generally how it plays out. There's more to park factors than the size of the outfield.

It's probably best to look at 3 year averages, which show Safeco as generally below average in run context across the board.

[Larry18]

Food for thought

http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/08/20/smoaks-defense/

[LA2]

Sorry, but do we know that Smoak is better than Chris Davis?

[RVAbird]

Sorry, but do we know that Smoak is better than Chris Davis?

No. But we know he's a year younger and walks more, strikes out less, and is probably a superior defender.

[LookinUp]

Food for thought

http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/08/20/smoaks-defense/

wow.

letters

[LA2]

No. But we know he's a year younger and walks more, strikes out less, and is probably a superior defender.

Davis is a very good first baseman, I'm sure you recall from last season. Since we're looking for power, I prefer Davis' .448 lifetime SLG to Smoak's .385 ( in 1005 ABs vs. 775 ABs). RE the walks: Smoak's OBP is only .316 (vs. Davis' .301).

[RVAbird]

Davis is a very good first baseman, I'm sure you recall from last season. Since we're looking for power, I prefer Davis' .448 lifetime SLG to Smoak's .385 ( in 1005 ABs vs. 775 ABs). RE the walks: Smoak's OBP is only .316 (vs. Davis' .301).

I'm sure I recall an average-at-best defender at first who received accolades from fans. I see a career UZR/150 of -3.7 in ~1750 innings. Really nothing special there.

Both have been around replacement level in their brief careers. Judging them on "now" performance is kind of silly. It's about whose skill-set projects more likelihood for ML success. Davis has more holes in his swing and a worse approach at the plate.

[Why_Knott?]

He has a while to get to that point.

He has to turn into Casey Kotchman or Brandon Wood.

Let's be realistic here. We'd have to really be lucky for Smoak to come to us, let alone develop for us. We are better off keeping a sure 35 HR guy and looking for options that will make this team better, not stay the same.

[crissfan172]

Davis is a very good first baseman, I'm sure you recall from last season. Since we're looking for power, I prefer Davis' .448 lifetime SLG to Smoak's .385 ( in 1005 ABs vs. 775 ABs). RE the walks: Smoak's OBP is only .316 (vs. Davis' .301).

OBP and BB% are not the same thing! :cussing:

(Sorry...pet peeve)