Guthrie traded to Rockies for Hammel & Lindstrom

[Lucky Jim]

It's been about a year since there was any chance of getting a real good prospect for him.

I wish we'd followed my plan when I formulated it: http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/85159-What-young-pitching-would-you-deal?p=1856379#post1856379

[GoldGlove21]

I'm not sure why you'd think he'd be much more valuable then. Guthrie's surplus value just isn't that high. He's going to be paid a minimum of $7M and change for 2-4 rWAR or 1.5-2.5 fWAR. At most, even with a career year, he's giving you $10M in surplus value, on average maybe a few $million. Once last year's trading deadline passed you were really looking at roughly $5M in value out of him, which is basically the equivalent of a compensation pick, maybe two if you squint hard enough.

It's been about a year since there was any chance of getting a real good prospect for him.

In this market Edwin Jackson got a 1/$10 deal. I am not interested in Guthrie at that rate. It was just a bad situation to be honest. Guthrie should have been moved or extended years ago. If Guthrie was making $7M this season I doubt that anyone would complain. The Orioles are in bad shape and I suppose this trade makes sense if I think about it hard enough.

[Tony-OH]

As Drungo mentioned, the fact that they don't get draft pick compensation under the new CBA probably factors in a bit.

Perhaps, but I still think Guthrie had the potential to bring more in return for a team that might need that starter down the stretch. At best this trade is a wash. If you are going to do that then they might as well keep him under the potential that teams could offer more when they are desperate. If it doesn't happen,then you get a compensation pick, which still may have more long term benefits than Hammel and Lindstrom.

[oriole]

You know...my interest in the O's this year has stayed pretty strong despite the fact that this was a terrible offseason. I still have that excitement of watching the young guys grow into major league players...good or bad. This trade is like a kick to the chest. I can't imagine a positive spin. My interest is beginning to wane and spring training hasn't even started. This is not a move of a man that knows what he is doing as a GM. I thought maybe DD just was being selective and picky and waiting to truely evaulate talent before pulling the trigger but this trade is not good and shows Duquettes real ability in the business.

It is a sad day to be an O's fan...

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

I think the answer is probably yes. Or at least close enough, with enough potential upside, to say yes. A compensation pick is only worth a few $million, and if Hammel pitches like it's 2009-2010 he's worth much more than that, above and beyond his salary.

This is really the only way to look at this deal that will allow us all to sleep better at night. If Hammel or Lindstom pitches well enough to garner a nice return at some point between now and 2014, DD will look like a genius. If they perform horribly, and net us nothing, it looks horrible.

[oriolesacox]

In this market Edwin Jackson got a 1/$10 deal. I am not interested in Guthrie at that rate. It was just a bad situation to be honest. Guthrie should have been moved or extended years ago. If Guthrie was making $7M this season I doubt that anyone would complain. The Orioles are in bad shape and I suppose this trade makes sense if I think about it hard enough.

The trade still doesn't make sense for me BUT it is a fair trade IMO.

[helloharv]

JonHeymanCBSJon Heyman

i am finding some of #orioles moves this winter confounding, perplexing and just downright weird

This should be on a 100 foot banner on the Warehouse

[helloharv]

I swear I am getting closer and closer to leaving the O's as my number 1 baseball team and I NEVER EVER thought I would even consider saying that.

[oriolesacox]

I swear I am getting closer and closer to leaving the O's as my number 1 baseball team and I NEVER EVER thought I would even consider saying that.

So this trade is sending you over the edge huh? Not the losing seasons, the horrible owner, horrible drafting/international presence, etc. Worse has happened and I'm sure will happen. Hang in there.

[Lucky Jim]

It's interesting. I've been one of the few folks not praising Duquette for his restructuring and moves. But, I'll be honest, I see someone with a very clear, and very consistent approach to risk and value. It's different than MacPhail's, but there's a logic to it. Clearly, he thinks that there was a serious over-correction with regards to prospect value that occurred within the last five years. And, if DD is right, he really will be pushing an innovative, market-optimizing approach. I'm not sure how it will work out, but, as I said, it's at least interesting.

[NCRaven]

This is really the only way to look at this deal that will allow us all to sleep better at night. If Hammel or Lindstom pitches well enough to garner a nice return at some point between now and 2014, DD will look like a genius. If they perform horribly, and net us nothing, it looks horrible.

And, if Guthrie hits the wall and performs poorly, DD looks like a genius, too. Not every move has to be about 2015. We still have to play ball in 2012 and this move has the potential to make us better in 2012/2013 and if it comes to it, could net as many or more prospects than Guthrie would have, anyway. The pessimism seems grossly exagerated if not totally unwarrented.

[Going Underground]

This is exactly why I should never start to take up for an Orioles GM. The second I do they do something that makes me start scratching my head. This trade makes no sense for the future since it only buys one additional year of a pitcher that "might" be a good as Guthrie.

This feels like a temper tantrum move. We don't like your arbitration number and you won't negotiate a settlement so I'm going to trade you for whatever I can get. I mean if it was Hammels and a prospect then maybe I could see this. But Hammels and a salary dump? Hell, at least he could have gotten the Rockies to take Gregg. This doesn't make the Orioles in the near term or long term. It makes little sense.

Also he was the O's player rep.

[Sports Guy]

If the arb talks really had anything to do with this and if Buck wasnt JGs biggest fan, is this another example of PA and Buck running the ML team?

[Lucky Jim]

If the arb talks really had anything to do with this and if Buck wasnt JGs biggest fan, is this another example of PA and Buck running the ML team?

My question is, if this is some fall-out from the sides playing hard-ball pre-arbitration, why did Guthrie sign a compromise $8.2m contract w/in a day?

[REDMAN]

Most of you have wanted change but change comes at a cost,you have to change the mentality of this group of players,that winning is better than losing.Guthrie for all his talent was 48-65 in five years as a oriole,it was time for a change.The trouble with most people on this site is that they over value the oriole players just like the scounts that were demoted,DD and the new front office look at the orioles with new fresh eyes and change will happen!