Cespedes to Oakland

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I think desperate gamble is way too strong. $32M is paying for 6 wins or thereabouts. It's 1/3 of one year of a mid-range payroll. The Jays paid 50% more than that for BJ Ryan. It was a reasonable investment, although I can see the position of people who thought it was unwise for a very resource-constrained team to commit that much money to a player who could have tanked.

My position always was that the O's have to get surplus value to win at their payroll level, and one way to do that is to hit on some guys like Cespedes. You're paying for less than two wins a year, and if he ends up being worth 3, 4, 5, you're golden. If not, well... you're going to have to roll the dice on somebody to get that surplus value.

"Desperate?" Possibly an overstatement. "Gamble?" Definitely accurate.

At the time, though, a lot of experts were questioning BB's decision-making process. If Cespedes had flopped, BB would've looked pretty stupid and the team would have suffered.

Could we have eaten that kind of money? Yeah, probably. But it would've taken a Jay Gibbons size chunk out of our paryroll, and everyone knows that PA probably wouldn't have increased it to make up for the loss. It would've just been about 10% of our payroll wasted for 4 years.

[Art Wing]

I think desperate gamble is way too strong. $32M is paying for 6 wins or thereabouts. It's 1/3 of one year of a mid-range payroll. The Jays paid 50% more than that for BJ Ryan. It was a reasonable investment, although I can see the position of people who thought it was unwise for a very resource-constrained team to commit that much money to a player who could have tanked.

My position always was that the O's have to get surplus value to win at their payroll level, and one way to do that is to hit on some guys like Cespedes. You're paying for less than two wins a year, and if he ends up being worth 3, 4, 5, you're golden. If not, well... you're going to have to roll the dice on somebody to get that surplus value.

Chen was our moderate version of a Cespedes gamble and it's certainly looking like surplus value as of right now. I had high hopes for Wada as well before he was injured. GonzoII looks like we just extracted gold from thin air.

[Orange]

The fact is that we have a nice platoon of McLouth/Reimold in LF right now. In the high minors we'll have Urrutia, Avery, Hoes, Robinson, Ford... I don't think this is much of a bad situation at all.

It's possible that Urrutia turns into an Al Bumbry type of guy. Something like 285/345/380 with maybe 8 HR's and 18 SB's. (If you smooth out Bumbry's three big SB years, that's sort of what he was.) That's no all star, but it's a solid LF that won't need a platoon or a pinch hitter, won't clog the bases, handles the bat well strategically, and scores runs for you. The kind of player that you win with out of the 7 or 8 hole.

[sevastras]

Chen was our moderate version of a Cespedes gamble and it's certainly looking like surplus value as of right now. I had high hopes for Wada as well before he was injured. GonzoII looks like we just extracted gold from thin air.

Alchemy can get you burned at the stake in these parts.

I am thrilled with how last year turned out. 1 extra inning game away from the ALCS! I just would like a player that other teams want as well. Everyone said that Baltimore will be more desirable of a place to play after last year. Well, let's see it.

[OFFNY]

I would prefer Soler myself, but have no confidence that this team will do anything remotely what it takes to get him here.

I have little doubt he'll be a Cub.

Good call.

"On June 11, 2012, Soler reportedly agreed to a nine-year $30 million dollar contract with the Chicago Cubs."

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/13120041-419/report-cubs-get-cuban-outfield-prospect-jorge-soler.html

[kyleott]

Alchemy can get you burned at the stake in these parts.

I am thrilled with how last year turned out. 1 extra inning game away from the ALCS! I just would like a player that other teams want as well. Everyone said that Baltimore will be more desirable of a place to play after last year. Well, let's see it.

Baltimore has a tough time competing with $$ (__________ insert snarky Angelos budget comment). If we aren't going to be the highest offer, we probably won't sign the player.

I for one am moderately content breaking camp with this roster. Obviously Cespedes would be a valuable asset, but as others have pointed out, it was questioned by many when it happened.

At this point, I am ready to go to war with our core (boom, rhyme). It makes me all warm and fuzzy when I see the analysts already assuming last year was an anomaly, and writing off any chance of repeated success. We had a plan to turn this organization around, and last year exceeded anybodies expectations. Just because we had that success, however, doesn't mean we should jump at the first opportunity to sign a player because "other teams want" them.