Schoenfield's ESPN Sweet Spot featuring the O's today

[isestrex]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/27782/extra-lets-talk-about-the-orioles#comment

Front page of ESPN's baseball page about how the Orioles aren't going away quietly but doing it all on luck. Nothing really new here but it's nice to see some national attention. Schoenfield always does a great job of injecting relevant statistics while still being subjective and open to any outcome.

Choice quotes:

However (you knew this was coming), only four teams have ever made the playoffs while getting outscored. Of course, the extra wild card changes that dimension a bit, as the necessary win total to make the postseason goes down. Here's what I did. I looked at three of those four playoff teams and every team since 1969 that won 85 games while being outscored (leaving out the 2005 Padres, who won 82 games while getting outscored by 42 runs, but aren't really germane to the Orioles since 82 isn't getting them into the playoffs).

Let's say it will take 88 wins to make the playoffs; I think it will take a couple more than that, but, hey, maybe the Angels and Tigers aren't as good as most people think and never get on a big roll. To win 88 games, the Orioles have to go 29-23 over the final 52 games. Can they go 31-21 to win 90? My argument is they can't; Orioles fans will suggest that Miguel Gonzalez (3.80 ERA in 47 innings) and Chris Tillman (5-1, 2.38 ERA in six starts) help make the rotation respectable. Maybe so. Regardless, the Orioles will have to play better then they have; you can't keep relying on extra-inning miracles.

[Frobby]

Good article. I prefer to focus on the following quotes:

Twelve in a row in extra innings. Nine scoreless innings from six relievers. The Orioles are tied for a wild-card spot and are just 4.5 games behind the Yankees. Baseball. I'm done making predictions. The more we know the less we know.

* * *

As our blog friends like to say: You can't predict baseball. This sport has been around a long time. Something always happens we haven't seen before. Maybe the 2012 Orioles will be that team.

[El Gordo]

We are on the cusp of being taken seriously. If we catch the MFY's we will be, IMO. The pythag/luck argument his the last face saving refrain of the experts who thought we were a 100L team at the beginning of the season and made snarky comments about DD being out of the game for 10 years, etc.

[NewMarketSean]

I think when people are so focused on the stats, run differentials, Pythagorean W/L stuff and say "this can't last" or "it can't happen", they really miss out on what makes the game so special. Sometimes, just sometimes there is a player or a team that bucks probability/trends/whatever and wins. So far, the Orioles have done this...they've actually done it for so long and so well that it's past luck or a fluke and they just seem to have that knack for pulling it off. It can't be explained. It just needs to be enjoyed.

[The Epic]

Holy crap, they brought up my e-mail! AWESOME!

OK, back to that run differential. Eric Karabell and I discussed the Orioles for several minutes on the "Baseball Today" podcast earlier Tuesday. Orioles fans keeping asking when we're going to show them a little more respect. A little love.

[LookinUp]

I predict we outscore our opponents by 60+ runs through the end of the year and all this RS/RA discussion becomes moot.

A man can hope.

[LookinUp]

We are on the cusp of being taken seriously. If we catch the MFY's we will be, IMO. The pythag/luck argument his the last face saving refrain of the experts who thought we were a 100L team at the beginning of the season and made snarky comments about DD being out of the game for 10 years, etc.

If we go into our offseason assuming this, we'll be doomed for 2013. The pythag isn't meaningless.

[murph]

I predict we outscore our opponents by 60+ runs through the end of the year and all this RS/RA discussion becomes moot.

A man can hope.

It would certainly help if last night was a sign of a late season tear from Wieters again and Reynolds would find his power stroke.

[Brendan25]

I think when people are so focused on the stats, run differentials, Pythagorean W/L stuff and say "this can't last" or "it can't happen", they really miss out on what makes the game so special. Sometimes, just sometimes there is a player or a team that bucks probability/trends/whatever and wins. So far, the Orioles have done this...they've actually done it for so long and so well that it's past luck or a fluke and they just seem to have that knack for pulling it off. It can't be explained. It just needs to be enjoyed.

Completely agree.

[El Gordo]

If we go into our offseason assuming this, we'll be doomed for 2013. The pythag isn't meaningless.

Who said it's meaningless? It just isn't destiny. And the O's aren't just lucky. I that were the case why play the games? Just crunch the numbers and run a bunch of simulations.

[LookinUp]

Who said it's meaningless? It just isn't destiny. And the O's aren't just lucky. I that were the case why play the games? Just crunch the numbers and run a bunch of simulations.

As has been noted in the other thread, the pythag obviously isn't perfect but it is clearly a predictor to some degree. It's certainly possible that Markakis has returned to his .900 OPS form, that Wieters goes on a hot streak, that Hardy produces like he did the first couple of months of last year, that Reynolds is ready for a nice long stretch and that our pitching holds up far better than it did earlier this season. That would be the type of scenario that could explain why the pythag is wrong in our case.

However, if we have a bunch of high strikeout, .240 hitters with guys like Quintanilla, and Markakis comes back to earth, and Wieters, Davis and Reynolds revert back to much more miss than hit, then our pitching will have to be exceptional.

I'm very happy right now, but I'm not going to allow 8 games against the very injured Yankees when we don't face their top two pitchers, the Rays pre-Longoria return and the Mariners make me suddenly believe that this team isn't what we saw in May, June and much of July. I want to believe that Tommy Hunter, for example, will continue to give up 2 or less runs/game. We have 8 more very winnable games on this home stand. I think we really need to capitalize in a big way. Reality will hit again in the following 20ish games. Hopefully we have a little margin for error.

[weams]

Who said it's meaningless? It just isn't destiny. And the O's aren't just lucky. I that were the case why play the games? Just crunch the numbers and run a bunch of simulations.

It would be quicker and easier to just bet on coin flips. I am loving this. The Stubbling, Bumbling, Rumbling. Homer Hitting, Bull Pen Winning, 2012 BuckarOOs. With a Dose of DD thrown in.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think when people are so focused on the stats, run differentials, Pythagorean W/L stuff and say "this can't last" or "it can't happen", they really miss out on what makes the game so special. Sometimes, just sometimes there is a player or a team that bucks probability/trends/whatever and wins. So far, the Orioles have done this...they've actually done it for so long and so well that it's past luck or a fluke and they just seem to have that knack for pulling it off. It can't be explained. It just needs to be enjoyed.

I think it's the opposite. If this had been happening in 1980 or 1950 nobody would have noticed the Pythag or the run differential, and nobody would have even had the tools to figure out one-run records or extra-inning records. The O's would just be another 59-51 team, albeit one that hadn't won that many games in a while.

But now we know. We know that this is a team on pace to outplay their run differential by the largest amount in 107 years. One of only seven teams since 1901 to be (or at least be on pace to be) outscored, yet outplay their Pythag by 10 or more games. The best record in one run games in recorded history. One of the best extra-inning records ever. That helps make this team all the more special and unbelievable. So much better than just remarking that a previously bad team is in the hunt for the 2nd wildcard.

When the 1981 Orioles went 59-46 despite being outscored it was like it never happened. Nobody knew, nobody cared.

[SilentJames]

When I get home from work today I am going to post a bit of a research project on my blog. I'm trying to answer the question of how the Orioles are beating their pythag SO HANDILY right now.

I think I may have cracked it, or at least come up with something that begins to explain it.

[DrungoHazewood]

When I get home from work today I am going to post a bit of a research project on my blog. I'm trying to answer the question of how the Orioles are beating their pythag SO HANDILY right now.

I think I may have cracked it, or at least come up with something that begins to explain it.

See, that's what I think is squeezing all the fun out of this. Trying to assign reasons and explanations for something that's just happening, mostly for no reason at all. The O's are winning because of good luck and a good bullpen. That's pretty much it, and in that order.