The #Orioles have declined Mark Reynolds' $11 mm option for 2013

[OFFNY]

We'll regret watching a guy hit around .230, srtrikeout a lot and maybe homer 30 times if lucky? Davis and Jones atleast can have somewhat decent averages and hit 30 homers+

And, who is one of the best defensive 1st basemen in the league. That makes a huge difference with Reynolds. And if you don't think so, all you have to do is think back to when before Reynolds took over at first base and before Machado was promoted from AA.

[Orange_Crush]

Reynolds is 29 and has hit 30 or more home runs three times in his career. (44 career high)

Davis is 27 and has hit 30 or more home runs one time in his career. (33 career high)

Jones is 27 and has hit 30 or more home runs one time in his career. (32 career high)

Jones career OBP-323, Davis-310, Reynolds-332

OBP > BA.

Youth factor and just hitting prime could be argued here. Reynolds is somewhat in his prime now. I think he's hit his high point already.

[Orange_Crush]

And, who is one of the best defensive 1st basemen in the league. That makes a huge difference with Reynolds. And if you don't think so, all you have to do is think back to when before Reynolds took over at first base and before Machado was promoted from AA.

One half of solid D at 1st does not make you "one of the best" at your position.

[Orange_Crush]

LaRoche declined a $10 million mutual option this morning, so he's a free agent, presumably looking to be paid more than $10 million a year.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/wp/2012/11/01/adam-laroche-sean-burnett-decline-mutual-options-become-free-agents/

Hey, wait, I thought you were going to look into modern baseball analysis before citing batting average and strikeouts as important offensive stats.

Not big on Sabremetrics. Not overall a numbers geek either. But Reynolds brings far less good to the table than bad. Yes I know in Baseball you will fail more times than not hitting. It's the only thing where you can fail more than succeed and it's not a big deal. Reynolds is mostly HR or bust. Not like he's going to be hitting singles, doubles or triples all over the spray chart of the field.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I may be splitting hairs here, but I think Davis has a significantly higher risk of just completely tanking and putting crater in the lineup. He had about a 3-month period last year where his on-base percentage was .275. Reynolds hit .143 in April, about as bad as anybody could possibly be, and still got on base 26% of the time. The rest of the year he never had an OBP under .300.

The year before he did have a couple months in the .280s, so maybe I am splitting hairs. I just see Davis as a guy who periodically gets into funks where he really has no idea what's coming and his solution is to swing at almost everything. At least Reynolds has discipline, even when he can't do much with it.

Maybe. Part of the equation is that Reynolds (for all his HR's and walks) is a career 109 wRC+ player. He has his own weaknesss (more K's, Low BA, pull hitter etc..). A more expansive strikezone (imo) and defensive shifts perhaps play into Davis's game a little better. Davis has some capability to hit for average and hit to all fields in addition to hitting for power.

[OFFNY]

One half of solid D at 1st does not make you "one of the best" at your position.

Reynolds played 108 games at first base in 2012. That's more than one half of the season. He also played 44 games there in 2011, when he was decent, but not great, like he was this past season.

That combination (44 games there in 2011 when he was pretty good, plus 108 games in 2012 when he was really good) points toward a guy that has found a position that he has is very good at, and has grown into it. There is a reason why Showalter planted Reynolds there (1st base) and kept him there to stay from late May until the end of the season throughout all of his cold streaks on offense. It's because he was a top defensive 1st basemen on defense.

[Frobby]

Here's an interesting thought experiment with Chris Davis: Swap his June and September numbers. His final numbers end up exactly the same, but he ends with consecutive months of .701, .741, and .659 OPSes. Pretty much everyone would be calling for his head. Or at least pleading for a backup plan, or three.

I'm reminded of Adam Jones and Luke Scott in the last 4 months of 2009 and the first 5 weeks of 2010.

Jones: .644 OPS from June 3 to Sept. 1, 2009 and spent the rest of the year on the DL; .597 OPS through May 6, 2010.

Scott: .724 OPS from June 7 to October 4, 2009; .607 OPS though May 4, 2010.

I remember a ton of thread in the winter of 2009 and then in the early part of 2010 wondering if these two guys ever would hit again.

So, for me, my opinion of Davis wouldn't be that different if his June and September were reversed. He's a streaky guy, and probably always will be. Nothing in the range of .750-.900 next year would really surprise me in 2013.

[Can_of_corn]

Youth factor and just hitting prime could be argued here. Reynolds is somewhat in his prime now. I think he's hit his high point already.

You could, but considering that Reynolds is only two years older your case really wouldn't be very strong. I posted a graphic last week showing the average amount of statistical improvement in 27 year old players is small. What really came off as bias was your assertion that Reynolds would be less likely to hit 30+ homers despite showing better power numbers historically then the other two.

[Scalious]

Reynolds is 29 and has hit 30 or more home runs three times in his career. (44 career high)

Davis is 27 and has hit 30 or more home runs one time in his career. (33 career high)

Jones is 27 and has hit 30 or more home runs one time in his career. (32 career high)

Jones career OBP-323, Davis-310, Reynolds-332

OBP > BA.

Yes, but Singles are better than Walks. Mostly in terms of driving in Runs...

[TradeAngelos]

You could, but considering that Reynolds is only two years older your case really wouldn't be very strong. I posted a graphic last week showing the average amount of statistical improvement in 27 year old players is small. What really came off as bias was your assertion that Reynolds would be less likely to hit 30+ homers despite showing better power numbers historically then the other two.

Correct.

Pretty much for for hitters, ages 25-31 are almost identical OPS wise. Tiny dropoff but rather insignificant past age 28. The slide doesn't start until 33, depending on the talent level of the player.

I have been charting and researching this lately, very interesting stuff.

[Can_of_corn]

Yes, but Singles are better than Walks. Mostly in terms of driving in Runs...

Don't forget to add in the value of a higher P/PA ratio. (if you want to get nit-picky)

[Scalious]

Don't forget to add in the value of a higher P/PA ratio. (if you want to get nit-picky)

Huh? Im just saying man. OBP is only one part of the equation. It would just be easier to look at RC+ or OPS, OPS+. Than just stating Home Runs... Yes P/PA does have value too..

Reynolds Career he goes back and forth between an .800ish OPS and .700ish OPS. He has track record over a guy like Davis right now... Can't denie that... Hard to say if Davis can sustatin what he did..

[OFFNY]

Not making false claims

Yes, you are making false claims. You are out and out lying. It's not a matter of opinion.

I will post your lies again, since you insist on being incorrigible.

Hardy had a great season and Reynolds wasn't at 1st for most of it. Not saying you don't have a point but I think you're giving Reynolds a bit much credit for why Hardy won. Sure he saved some throws but it's not like the other 4ish months Hardy was a slouch or anything.

Reynolds started 105 games and played in 108 games at 1B. That is two-thirds of the season.

Yeah but there was a point when him and Betemit were being used at 1st off and on, it wasnt til Machado that the move to 1st was permanant.

This is also false (as was your original claim of Reynolds not being at first base for most of the season.)

Machado did not come up to the Orioles until August 9th. Betemit played a grand total of 4 games at first base between May 28th (when Reynolds came back from injury) and August 9th, when Machado came back.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=betemwi01&t=b&year=2012

You're quick to try to dismiss Reynolds' time at first base (108 games) as not being a large enough sample size, yet you are throwing Wilson Betemit's 4 games at 1st base from late May 28th until August 9th (almost 2 and-a-half months) into your argument as being significant enough to claim that Reynolds and Betemit "were being used on and off" at 1st base until Machado came up from AA-Bowie.

You either don't want to admit that you were mistaken, or you have a very strong bias against Mark Reynolds.

[Can_of_corn]

Huh? Im just saying man. OBP is only one part of the equation. It would just be easier to look at RC+ or OPS, OPS+. Than just stating Home Runs... Yes P/PA does have value too..

Reynolds Career he goes back and forth between an .800ish OPS and .700ish OPS. He has track record over a guy like Davis right now... Can't denie that... Hard to say if Davis can sustatin what he did..

I wasn't saying that it was. I just think that OBP is a more useful stat then BA.

[Scalious]

I wasn't saying that it was. I just think that OBP is a more useful stat then BA.

And I agreed.

Walks are Better than Singles was really my only point here...Do you disagree with that? I should have Clarified that is doesnt mean I think that Completly makes the Difference in their OBP. Just think sometimes, people oversell BA, and other times people Undersell BA..

I think your throwing of those Home Run Numbers out there with the OBP in that post, threw me off. Thought you were trying to say more tha Just OBP>BA. Very sorry about that mistake..