Proof that Raffy was clean?

[Roll Tide]

Jim Palmer said his bat speed was awful. Then suddenly it wasn't.

Could that have been possible due to injury?

As a side note I use B-12 shots for weight loss. It's amazing I different I feel and it's a relatively low dose compared to the doses these guys use.

[UMDTerrapins]

Raffy always had a slow looking swing, even in his prime. But that was in part because it was very fluid and very short. The short porch in RF was perfect for his swing. I don't think anyone would accuse Surhoff of juicing, yet his power numbers jumped when he came to Baltimore because the short porch can really elevate power numbers for lefties. Do I think Raffy juiced? Yup. And intentionally, not just because of a mixup. But to me the possibility that he DIDN'T juice isn't as unbelievable as it might be to most people.

The real crime about the steroid era is that some very good players who actually were clean will always be doubted. And those players who were actually clean will always have their accomplishments minimized by the era they played in. I like to believe that Ken Griffey Jr. was clean and one of the best hitters in baseball history. Assuming he was clean, the numbers he put up were astonishing from a historical standpoint if you remove the cheaters. He was such a gifted hitter with a beautiful swing. Palmeiro wasn't anywhere near the athlete Griffey was, but he sure did have a nice swing. If he actually never intentionally took steroids it's a shame his legacy and numbers are forever tainted.He always seemed like a nice guy. Just too hard to believe.

Rambling post.......sorry. Here's an idea for when I post.....have a point! It makes it so much more enjoyable for the reader.

[isestrex]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19277

Rafael Palmeiro: An extremely reliable source with no ties to Palmeiro told me an off-the-record story at the Winter Meetings that convinced me that Palmeiro was indeed a clean player and was tricked into using the steroid when he thought he was taking a shot of vitamin B-12 that led to his suspension and end of his career in 2005. Unfortunately, there would be too many legal ramifications to make the story public.

I don't believe it but figured it was worth throwing out there.

I have always believed that Raffy was clean. Growing up, he was my hero so obviously I'm biased, but it's what I've held ever since 2005. I believe he was clean all through his career and all through his first stint as an Oriole. I believe when he went before congress at start of the 2005 season, and said "I have never used steriods. Period", that he was telling the truth. I believe that in 2005, as Palmer noted, his bad speed had declined so much that he knew the end was coming. He badly wanted to help a competing Orioles' team (remember, the Orioles were actually in contention in June), and he knew he was only a few hits away from 3000. So he lunged for something, anything, that could help him. Somehow, he injected himself with B-12. Maybe he knew then what he was doing, maybe he was deceived, but regardless, the substance worked and his bat looked alive again.

I have always believed this even if it is a bit naive and optimistic.

[El Gordo]

This. And for the sake of argument let's all just agree that PEDs give a performance edge. If Raffy started mid season that year because he was not doing well and was trying to reach 3000, it's not like he would have gotten any benefit that quickly. And I don't think a placebo effect could mask slow bat speed. Who knows really? I was always willing to give him the benefit of the doubt though.

For the record, Raffy took another test several weeks later and was clean. He didn't really start hitting until after the second test, so Palmer's hyperbole not withstanding, PED's had nothing to do with hios bat speed picking up.

[24fps]

I have always believed that Raffy was clean. Growing up, he was my hero so obviously I'm biased, but it's what I've held ever since 2005. I believe he was clean all through his career and all through his first stint as an Oriole. I believe when he went before congress at start of the 2005 season, and said "I have never used steriods. Period", that he was telling the truth. I believe that in 2005, as Palmer noted, his bad speed had declined so much that he knew the end was coming. He badly wanted to help a competing Orioles' team (remember, the Orioles were actually in contention in June), and he knew he was only a few hits away from 3000. So he lunged for something, anything, that could help him. Somehow, he injected himself with B-12. Maybe he knew then what he was doing, maybe he was deceived, but regardless, the substance worked and his bat looked alive again.

I have always believed this even if it is a bit naive and optimistic.

If Raffy went public with the scenario you just laid out a lot of people including myself would be a lot more sympathetic towards him and a lot more open to the argument that the PED environment of the time exerted pressure to keep up. However you don't get injectable B12 from a teammate, you get it from a doctor or from your trainer or some licensed medical professional where there's a paper trail and no possibility of the sort of "mix up" that could mistake Stanozolol for Vitamin B12. That's just common sense and until he comes off the position that it was accidental, I don't don't see much softening of positions elsewhere.

[ledzepp8]

For the record, Raffy took another test several weeks later and was clean. He didn't really start hitting until after the second test, so Palmer's hyperbole not withstanding, PED's had nothing to do with hios bat speed picking up.

Exactly...and even if it could have an effect...it most certainly couldn't happen instantly (even if the user believed).

[MurphDogg]

I'm not sure that Raffy would be in the HOF anyway. He was an accumulator of counting stats in an era in which it was easiest to accumulate counting stats for any number of reasons (nutrition, ease of travel, stadium size, expansion, 162-game schedule, DH, etc.). He was rarely an All Star and never in the MVP discussion. Even without steroids I think the 3,000 hits, 500 HR benchmarks were bound to fall eventually. I also don't believe that Fred McGriff would be in the Hall of Fame if he had gotten the extra ten homers that were taken from him because of the 1994 strike. Raffy had a lower WAR than Bobby Grich. He was a very good player but rarely the best on his own team. You didn't stop to watch the tv when you saw that he was up, he was just kind of there for a long time. He had great health and played for a long time, but he was not a slam dunk HOF guy.

[Tx Oriole]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19277

I don't believe it but figured it was worth throwing out there.

Who knows? It is in the past.

[El Gordo]

Exactly...and even if it could have an effect...it most certainly couldn't happen instantly (even if the user believed).

Timeline: May 18, Raffey is informed of failed test. Test happened in May 3. He is hitting .588 OPS. A lot of good it's doing. May 15 he is hitting .653 OPS. May 17 he gets 4 H and jumps to .715 OPS. May 27 he passes second test. So the steroids are out of his system by the time his bat picks up.

[Frobby]

So, let's see: a guy who writes for BP who I never heard of, John Perrotto, wrote an article in which an unnamed "extremely reliable source--with no ties to Palmeiro--told me an off-the-record story at the Winter Meetings that convinced me that Palmeiro was indeed a clean player."

I'm having a hard time seeing that as "proof." Maybe when the unnamed "source" is identified and tells his "story" so that we can all evaluate it, it will carry some weight. Until then, I'm afraid it has none. And besides, if he truly has "no ties to Palmeiro," how can he have any first-hand knowledge of anything?

[wildbillhiccup]

I don't buy it. Palmeiro's power increase after '93 just doesn't make sense (without the steroid argument). He went from being a Mark Grace clone to a bonafide power hitting first basemen.

[DrungoHazewood]

I've always thought maybe Raffy really was telling the truth. I mean, it's not like he got big and, if you're going to lie in front of a congressional committee are you going to double down, point your finger and get all indignant about it too? It's like the Brady Anderson thing. If he took steroids to hit 50 homers in '96 did he stop in '97, his walk year, when he hit like 18 or something? Why would he have done that?

Raffy is like everyone else, you just don't know. But I've always kind of doubted that he was a long-time user and would do and say what he did in front of congress. I think he was set up, but my opinion isn't worth 5 cents.

I'm not sure that Raffy would be in the HOF anyway. He was an accumulator of counting stats in an era in which it was easiest to accumulate counting stats for any number of reasons (nutrition, ease of travel, stadium size, expansion, 162-game schedule, DH, etc.). He was rarely an All Star and never in the MVP discussion. Even without steroids I think the 3,000 hits, 500 HR benchmarks were bound to fall eventually. I also don't believe that Fred McGriff would be in the Hall of Fame if he had gotten the extra ten homers that were taken from him because of the 1994 strike. Raffy had a lower WAR than Bobby Grich. He was a very good player but rarely the best on his own team. You didn't stop to watch the tv when you saw that he was up, he was just kind of there for a long time. He had great health and played for a long time, but he was not a slam dunk HOF guy.

Bobby Grich should be in the Hall of Fame, so that's really not an argument. Not unless you think the current minimum standard should start somewhere around the value of the average current HOFer.

It'll be interesting to see how the Hall eventually sorts out the expansion problem - the issue that there are many more players having HOF-type seasons and careers because there are more players and more good players than there used to be. Raffy is very clearly better than any number of HOF first basemen, including some BBWAA-elected members. Raffy had a six-win season, three more five-win seasons, and five more four-win seasons. He was a very good player for about a decade. In other words, he had 11 different seasons where he would have been the most valuable 2012 Oriole.

An average HOF first baseman has 62 rWAR. Raffy has 66. What would be interesting to see is an argument that Eddie Murray (63 career rWAR) is a clear HOFer, while Raffy is out.

[McNulty]

So, let's see: a guy who writes for BP who I never heard of, John Perrotto, wrote an article in which an unnamed "extremely reliable source--with no ties to Palmeiro--told me an off-the-record story at the Winter Meetings that convinced me that Palmeiro was indeed a clean player."

I'm having a hard time seeing that as "proof." Maybe when the unnamed "source" is identified and tells his "story" so that we can all evaluate it, it will carry some weight. Until then, I'm afraid it has none. And besides, if he truly has "no ties to Palmeiro," how can he have any first-hand knowledge of anything?

Perrotto is a respected journalist. He covered the Pirates for a long time.

[MurphDogg]

An average HOF first baseman has 62 rWAR. Raffy has 66. What would be interesting to see is an argument that Eddie Murray (63 career rWAR) is a clear HOFer, while Raffy is out.

I have both of them behind Edgar Martinez. You are absolutely right about Bobby Grich, it isn't a good argumentative tactic for me to use one of the number one players getting hosed in HOF discussion. Furthermore, Alan Trammel, growing up he was called a future HOF player more than any other that I can remember that never sniffed Cooperstown. Also, I am already prepared to be super pissed when Kenny Lofton doesn't get 5 percent of the vote.

[weams]

An average HOF first baseman has 62 rWAR. Raffy has 66. What would be interesting to see is an argument that Eddie Murray (63 career rWAR) is a clear HOFer, while Raffy is out.

Eddie a squeaker? Blasphemy!