Proof that Raffy was clean?

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't buy it. Palmeiro's power increase after '93 just doesn't make sense (without the steroid argument). He went from being a Mark Grace clone to a bonafide power hitting first basemen.

I think it's perfectly reasonable. What's so crazy about 14, 8, 8, 14, 26, with a player in his early-to-mid 20s? Was Clemente using in 60 and '61 when his totals were 4, 6, 4, 16, 23? Or Rogers Hornsby in '22, when he went 5, 8, 9, 21, 42? Or Alvin Dark, who had six career homers through age 27, then hit at least 14 every year from 28-32, starting in the late 40s?

[Frobby]

Perrotto is a respected journalist. He covered the Pirates for a long time.

That part was the least of my concerns. We still don't know who his source was, what his source's story was, and how the source got the information he gave Perrotto. I don't even doubt that the story could be true and convincing, but I'm not just going to accept information that vague as "proof" that Raffy was clean. And believe me, I'd love to be persuaded that Raffy was tricked into using steroids and otherwise was clean. Even if that was the case, he still injected himself with a substance that wasn't given to him by a doctor, and had to know the risks involved.

[Roll Tide]

i think it's perfectly reasonable. What's so crazy about 14, 8, 8, 14, 26, with a player in his early-to-mid 20s? Was clemente using in 60 and '61 when his totals were 4, 6, 4, 16, 23? Or rogers hornsby in '22, when he went 5, 8, 9, 21, 42? Or alvin dark, who had six career homers through age 27, then hit at least 14 every year from 28-32, starting in the late 40s?

nice points...i hope raffy was clean. That said even if he was hie rep is ruined. It would be nice for someone with info to come forward to clear his name.

[UMDTerrapins]

I don't buy it. Palmeiro's power increase after '93 just doesn't make sense (without the steroid argument). He went from being a Mark Grace clone to a bonafide power hitting first basemen.

I think his intersection with Canseco, Gonzalez, Rodriguez on his career timeline and the jump in his power stats after that intersection are the most damning evidence....moreso than his failed test at the end of his career. However, it's not an absolute.

I ran into this quote that made me chuckle while looking at an old Sun article on Palmeiro:

St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa, who managed Canseco and McGwire with the Athletics, defended McGwire in an interview with The New York Times.

"I am absolutely certain that Mark earned his size and strength from hard work and a disciplined lifestyle," La Russa said. "... As opposed to the other guy, Jose, who would play around in the gym for 10 minutes, and all of a sudden he's bigger than anybody."

[Thyrl]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, I truly have no first hand experience with either but as I understand it most steroids are oil based therefore tougher to inject and are clear or orangey in color. B-12 as I understand it is water based and much thinner plus usually hot pinkish in color.

Unless the recipient had blind faith in the person injecting them and didn't bother to look it'd seem pretty tough to make this mistake.

[MurphDogg]

I think his intersection with Canseco, Gonzalez, Sierra and Rodriguez on his career timeline and the jump in his power stats after that intersection are the most damning evidence....moreso than his failed test at the end of his career. However, it's not an absolute.[/i]

Pointing out players that Palmeiro played with is not evidence. Also, not sure how you can get credit for both Sierra and Canseco since they were traded for one another. Unless you believe that Canseco wasn't using with the Rangers. Also, you get no credit at all for Ivan Rodriguez during the time he played with Palmeiro the first time. His nickname was Pudge for a reason back then.

[UMDTerrapins]

Pointing out players that Palmeiro played with is not evidence. Also, not sure how you can get credit for both Sierra and Canseco since they were traded for one another. Unless you believe that Canseco wasn't using with the Rangers. Also, you get no credit at all for Ivan Rodriguez during the time he played with Palmeiro the first time. His nickname was Pudge for a reason back then.

I removed Sierra's name before your post.....agreed that his name shouldn't be involved.

However, Canseco contends that he introduced Palmeiro to steroids in Texas. The year after Canseco arrived in Texas, Palmeiro hit 37 HR....the first year of a streak that saw him hit at least that many HR in 11 of the next 12 seasons. In the 3270 AB that preceded that 37 HR season, Palmeiro maxed out at 26 HR. Evidence is a funny choice of words because in a court of law the standard of evidence I am talking does not meet the burden of proof. Logic however says that that's about as strange a statistical jump as you'll ever see in sports. But like I said, I do think it is possible for the reasons I stated that he could in fact have been clean. I just don't think it's true.

[MurphDogg]

In the 3270 AB that preceded that 37 HR season, Palmeiro maxed out at 26 HR. Evidence is a funny choice of words because in a court of law the standard of evidence I am talking does not meet the burden of proof. Logic however says that that's about as strange a statistical jump as you'll ever see in sports. But like I said, I do think it is possible for the reasons I stated that he could in fact have been clean. I just don't think it's true.

I will let someone like Drungo tackle that, but I am highly dubious that Palmeiro jumping from 26 to 37 homers in his age 28 season is even unusual, let alone "as strange a statistical jump as you'll ever see in sports."

[UMDTerrapins]

Pointing out players that Palmeiro played with is not evidence. Also, not sure how you can get credit for both Sierra and Canseco since they were traded for one another. Unless you believe that Canseco wasn't using with the Rangers. Also, you get no credit at all for Ivan Rodriguez during the time he played with Palmeiro the first time. His nickname was Pudge for a reason back then.

I found a better way to separate his career. Let's split his career in 1993, the year after Canseco arrived in Texas (where he claims he introduced Palmeiro to steroids).

Before Canseco: 34.42 AB per home run (3270 AB)

After Canseco: 15.19 AB per home run (7202 AB)

[UMDTerrapins]

I will let someone like Drungo tackle that, but I am highly dubious that Palmeiro jumping from 26 to 37 homers in his age 28 season is even unusual, let alone "as strange a statistical jump as you'll ever see in sports."

When you look at it from my next post, I do think that's about as bizarre a jump in performance as you'll see in sports, if it happened naturally. It's as if he changed from Mark Grace to Mike Schmidt in 1993, after playing in all or part of seven seasons prior.

[Can_of_corn]

I found a better way to separate his career. Let's split his career in 1993, the year after Canseco arrived in Texas (where he claims he introduced Palmeiro to steroids).

Before Canseco: 34.42 AB per home run (3270 AB)

After Canseco: 15.19 AB per home run (7202 AB)

Brady Anderson before Johnson became his manager: 49 AB per home run (3596 AB)

After: 23.4 AB per home run (3228 AB)

[TJ Wrangler]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, I truly have no first hand experience with either but as I understand it most steroids are oil based therefore tougher to inject and are clear or orangey in color. B-12 as I understand it is water based and much thinner plus usually hot pinkish in color.

Unless the recipient had blind faith in the person injecting them and didn't bother to look it'd seem pretty tough to make this mistake.

You're mostly right, but winstrol, which is what Raffy tested positive for, is usually water based. It isn't uncommon for bodybuilders to mix oil and water based compounds in the same syringe.

[MurphDogg]

When you look at it from my next post, I do think that's about as bizarre a jump in performance as you'll see in sports, if it happened naturally. It's as if he changed from Mark Grace to Mike Schmidt in 1993, after playing in all or part of seven seasons prior.

You mean the Mark Grace who hit his career high in homers (17, much less than Palmeiro pre-'93) at the ripe old age of 34. Scandalous!!! :scratchchinhmm:

[UMDTerrapins]

Brady Anderson before Johnson became his manager: 49 AB per home run (3596 AB)

After: 23.4 AB per home run (3228 AB)

I'll rep you for the clever comparison, but we're not really going to use Anderson as an example of a player who clearly didn't use PEDs right?

[UMDTerrapins]

You mean the Mark Grace who hit his career high in homers (17, much less than Palmeiro pre-'93) at the ripe old age of 34. Scandalous!!! :scratchchinhmm:

It's a quick analogy. But, going back to the statistics....I just don't buy that it's not entirely suspect. That kind of jump just didn't happen in the pre-steroid era.