Is Bundy this special?

[luismatos4prez]

I think Bundy is perhaps that special. But one thing that I am somewhat nervous about is the kid never got a FB over 94 in his very limited appearances last year. I would of imagine that he was super rested at that point and should of been able to show us that 98 mph bad boy. I just fear anything with our prospects having seen soooo many just crash and burn in the last two decades.

But maybe he was intentionally trying to not be too ampted up?

Well, he did get over 95 in his second appearance according to PitchfX, although it doesn't concern me. He can throw 98+ as a change of pace, but his fastball is in the mid 90s most of the time. "Bundy's fastball sits comfortably in the 94-96 mph range" according to Tony's scouting report.

If you ever start to doubt Bundy, just reread this article

[Stotle]

The whole argument that a player who pitches in 30 games is inherently less valuable than a position player that plays in 150 games a year is a false one in my opinion.

Following is a very brute force approach to my thinking on this. An outfielder may field the ball half a dozen times in a game on defense and get 5 plate appearances. That means they'll average about 10 to 12 opportunities to have an impact on the game each time they play. Multiply it by 150 games and its 1500 to 1800 times a season they will directly impact a game.

A starting pitcher may average 90 pitches a game and start 30 games. That's 2700 times they'll directly impact a game, not including fielding plays.

Or to put it another way. An ace starting pitcher should throw upwards on 200 innings a year. That represents about 15 % of the total number of innings thrown by an entire team.

A star hitter will get about 550 ABs which represents about 10% of the total number of at bats by an entire team.

By either analysis, a top starting pitcher could be seen to have 50% more impact on the team's total stats than a top positional player.

So count me in the keep Bundy camp. If the O's want to improve, I think finding a true TOR ace will have more impact than bringing in a AL Star hitter.

That works if you only look at batting line as the contribution of a player. But you have to then count all the innings/pitches/whatever that the position player is on the bases and all the innings/pitches/whatever that the position player is involved in a play defensively. It's not really close -- the offensive player is involved in "more baseball" than is the pitcher.

[Stotle]

Also, not to be a debbie downer, but the "Bundy is the best pitching prospect in baseball" argument is not a good one. 1) it's highly debatable that's even true, and 2) if he happens to be on the top of someone's list, there's essentially no separation between him and the likes of Cole/Wheeler/Walker/Fernandez. He's a very valuable young arm, but he is not Strasburg. And a whole lot of people here are talking about him as if he's Strasburg.

[Ruzious]

Also, not to be a debbie downer, but the "Bundy is the best pitching prospect in baseball" argument is not a good one. 1) it's highly debatable that's even true, and 2) if he happens to be on the top of someone's list, there's essentially no separation between him and the likes of Cole/Wheeler/Walker/Fernandez. He's a very valuable young arm, but he is not Strasburg. And a whole lot of people here are talking about him as if he's Strasburg.

And Upton is a corner OFer who had a .780 OPS last season - and folks are opening up multiple threads to gush about the small hope that the O's get him for Bundy.

[Stotle]

And Upton is a corner OFer who had a .780 OPS last season - and folks are opening up multiple threads to gush about the small hope that the O's get him for Bundy.

Except if he were an Orioles player already -- then he'd be a former All-Star with an MVP caliber tool set who has averaged over 4 fWAR over the last four seasons, worth over $20MM a year and untradeable unless Baltimore was getting a MONSTER return, right?

You can "dirty up" Upton based on last year, but the bottom line is he is two years younger than Jones and has been a better player for a longer time. I think most on here would scoff at the idea of trading Jones straight up for Taiwan Walker, Jose Fernandez, Zack Wheeler or Gerrit Cole.

[luismatos4prez]

Also, not to be a debbie downer, but the "Bundy is the best pitching prospect in baseball" argument is not a good one. 1) it's highly debatable that's even true, and 2) if he happens to be on the top of someone's list, there's essentially no separation between him and the likes of Cole/Wheeler/Walker/Fernandez. He's a very valuable young arm, but he is not Strasburg. And a whole lot of people here are talking about him as if he's Strasburg.

Well, you'd know more than I, but I haven't seen any prospect lists or opinions with Cole/Wheeler/Walker/Fernandez ahead of Bundy to date. Everything I've seen and read has Profar and Bundy as 1-2.

When we sent that list and had it vetted by some pro scouts, it was pretty overwhelming that they thought Bundy, not Profar, should be No. 1. Most comments started with 'this is a pretty good list, but the first thing you have to do is put Bundy ahead of Profar.' It was pretty consistent how that went. I think the fact that he is so advanced and polished. The combination of polish and power is what separates him. No scout we heard from had any pitcher ahead of Bundy in the minors.

John Manuel, Baseball America editor-in-chief

[Frobby]

If Bundy already was a proven TOR major league pitcher, I think we'd all agree he was more valuable than Upton. But he's not. He's a top prospect. The odds that he actually becomes a TOR starter are probably in the 50-70 percent range. So that has to be factored into the equation. For the Orioles, I'd still stick with Bundy, because the team really needs a TOR starter more than it needs an above average OF, and the difference in the level of need is sufficient to override the risk that Bundy may not become what we hope he'll become.

[OsLuvrInKy]

If Bundy already was a proven TOR major league pitcher, I think we'd all agree he was more valuable than Upton. But he's not. He's a top prospect. The odds that he actually becomes a TOR starter are probably in the 50-70 percent range. So that has to be factored into the equation. For the Orioles, I'd still stick with Bundy, because the team really needs a TOR starter more than it needs an above average OF, and the difference in the level of need is sufficient to override the risk that Bundy may not become what we hope he'll become.

The bolded part says everything I need to hear!

[bobmc]

The bolded part says everything I need to hear!

Wha??? Drungo has not yet spoken oon the matter has he? :scratchchinhmm:

[OsLuvrInKy]

Wha??? Drungo has not yet spoken oon the matter has he? :scratchchinhmm:

No he hasn't and when he does it won't change my opinion about Bundy. I understand he is just a prospect. In years past we have watched a lot of prospects flame out but how many of them were as highly touted by EVERYONE as Bundy is. Years past is just that, years past. We have a new regime running the Orioles and I have a little more faith in their ability to develop than past regimes. Uniform training from level to level, Rick Peterson and his Biomechanical analysis, better communication, etc.... I would rather see what our new FO and staff can do with Bundy and Gausman than trade them away.

[Stotle]

Well, you'd know more than I, but I haven't seen any prospect lists or opinions with Cole/Wheeler/Walker/Fernandez ahead of Bundy to date. Everything I've seen and read has Profar and Bundy as 1-2.

John Manuel, Baseball America editor-in-chief

I do know the timing of that quote, and I respect Baseball Americas standards for vetting info. I disagree that accurately reflects the prospect landscape on this instance.

[crawjo]

What somebody should do is look back at the top pitching prospects in baseball for every year for the last 15-20 years and figure out what the range of outcomes has been.

Well, let me try that:

2012: Matt Moore (#2 overall)

2011: Julio Teheran (#5)

2010: Stephen Strasburg (#2)

2009: David Price (#2)

2008: Joba Chamberlain (#3)

2007: Daisuke Matsuzaka (#1)

2006: Francisco Liriano (#6)

2005: Felix Hernandez (#2)

2004: Edwin Jackson (#4)

2003: Jesse Foppert (#5)

2002: Josh Beckett (#1)

2001: Josh Beckett (#3)

2000: Rick Ankiel (#1)

1999: Rick Ankiel (#2)

1998: Kerry Wood (#4)

1997: Kerry Wood (#3)

1996: Paul Wilson (#2)

1995: Armando Benitez (#11)

1994: James Baldwin (#8)

1993: Brien Taylor (#2)

1992: Brien Taylor (#1)

1991: Todd Van Poppel (#1)

1990: Steve Avery (#1)

I guess that's far enough. What I see on this list are a few total busts, a few guys who were great at first and then succumbed to injury, a few guys who become good but not great pitchers, and then a few aces. Based on the reports on Bundy and his performance in 2012, he is probably more similar to Josh Beckett, David Price, and Felix Hernandez than anyone else.

Everything is a risk, but you've got to go with what your eyes tell you and what your scouts tell you. And I think what they are saying now is that Bundy is a future ace, the kind of pitcher that can bring you a championship. Upton is a very good young player, but I don't think he can have that large an impact on the game as a corner outfielder.

[andrewrickli]

Thank you Stotle for your input.

To the rest, if Upton was ours, we would over value him, like we do pretty much everyone else on our team. Upton was THIRD in MVP voting, and is LIGHT YEARS better than what Adam Jones was this far into his career.

Upton can take a walk and has a career .352 OBP. AJ's career OBP? .323.

Upton's career OPS? .832....AJ's? .775!!!!

[waroriole]

Upton has 5 seasons with Arizona. He's been worth more than 2.1 WAR twice. This ridiculous idea has been discussed enough for all reasonable people to know that trading Bundy for Upton is a terrible move.

[andrewrickli]

If Bundy already was a proven TOR major league pitcher, I think we'd all agree he was more valuable than Upton. But he's not. He's a top prospect. The odds that he actually becomes a TOR starter are probably in the 50-70 percent range. So that has to be factored into the equation. For the Orioles, I'd still stick with Bundy, because the team really needs a TOR starter more than it needs an above average OF, and the difference in the level of need is sufficient to override the risk that Bundy may not become what we hope he'll become.

Frobby with all due respect, there is no way that the percentage of chance that Bundy becomes a true ace is as high as 50-70%. Think about it. How many true aces are there in MLB? Let's see:

Verlander

Hernandez

Price

Sabathia

Kershaw

Cain

Weaver

Strasburg

Hammel

So by my count that is 9 pitchers that are sure fire aces.

That number figured into the number of "potential aces" leaves a very small percentage of Bundy every becoming a sure fire ace. I'm not saying that he won't, but the percentage isn't a great one.