Is Bundy this special?

[El Gordo]

Amusing. DuqXM and Bowden were discussing an Upton/Bundy trade. Duq was all for it. Bowden was not. Said a TOR was as valuable to a MLB team as a quarterback to an NFL team, Said he would only consider trading Bundy for Trout or maybe Stanton. Hate to admit it but I have to agree with Bowden.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Ammusing. DuqXM and Bowden were discussing an Upton/Bundy trade. Duq was all for it. Bowden was not. Said a TOR was as valuable to a MLB team as a quarterback to an NFL team, Said he would only consider trading Bundy for Trout or maybe Stanton. Hate to admit it but I have to agree with Bowden.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day

[Crazysilver03]

OH has always valued O's players more than other teams. I remember all the trades of 2012, and most were upset with them. We gave up Lino for Thome?? Guthrie for Hammel and Lindstrom???

Most people were mad after those deals and look how well they worked out for us. People here tend to get tunnel vision when it comes to valuing our players, IMO

Prior to the 2012 season, Tony gave a very glowing report of Lino that made him seem like he could be a MLB contributor someday. People here that read the prospect review were more upset than fans not on the OH because of how informed they are. I was okay with the deal but a lot of people weren't happy bringing in a very old Thome.

As for the Guthrie trade, people were more upset about not bringing young talent back. Until last year, Hammel had rarely showed that potential and Lindstrom was an overpaid reliever.

[Frobby]

I've been working on a project for a while that would determine a prospect's chances of success in the big leagues. It's still a work in progress, but I've mostly completed the part that looks at how well BA America rankings predict success/failure.

If Bundy is ranked either 1st or 2nd, my model suggests that he has about a 75-80% chance to be a successful major league pitcher (which is defined for my model's purposes as having >5 career fWAR) and about a 40-45% chance to be a star (which is defined as having >20 career fWAR).

I'm still working on this, and it's likely that the model performs worst at the edges (ie, it does a better job making predictions for those ranked #20-30 than those ranked #1 or #100).

Of course, Upton is at 17.1 fWAR right now and will only be 25 this season. So his odds of being a "star" as you define it are about as close to 100% as it gets.

Your model sounds pretty reasonable to me.

[Crazysilver03]

In no way did I construct a zealous argument. And for the record, Bundy WON'T be number one. Profar will be. Mark it.

So what? Bundy is #2. Does that really change the argument?

[andrewrickli]

You aren't trying to have a discussion because you aren't equating both players fairly.

You even mention that Upton has the potential to be .900 OPS guy. As someone stated, you are trying to compare Bundy's floor to Upton's ceiling without listening to the other side. The fact that you cite 16 AA innings in HIS FIRST PROFESSIONAL SEASON is asinine.

And the OF is a revolving door? Last time I checked, our pitching was even more of a revolving door. Bundy has the highest (or second highest) potential in the system to become an ace, over every other pitcher.

I thought that I had made note that it was a SSS, but for now it's all we have to go off of. He dominated at Delmarva in large part because he has a blistering 97 MPH fastball that hitters can't touch, and a sharp biting curveball. He was too talented for low A.

Bundy is a SPECIAL talent. But I have heard this before with prospects and some

never pan out. It scares me, that's all. I'd bet Gausman to be a TOR before I would on Bundy.

[Stotle]

There are good arguments for Bundy and for Upton. Truth be told, there are probably more projected front-end arms (maybe seven or eight) in the minors right now than potential five tool bats or playable "80" power bats. I think the best argument for holding onto Bundy comes down to the extra payroll felxibility you get with him. I think the best argument for Upton over Bundy is he is a better bet to help Baltimore win a World Series in the short term (next three years).

All that said, I can't imagine Bundy alone would net Upton unless there is something wrong with Upton that isn't public knowledge.

[andrewrickli]

There are good arguments for Bundy and for Upton. Truth be told, there are probably more projected front-end arms (maybe seven or eight) in the minors right now than potential five tool bats or playable "80" power bats. I think the best argument for holding onto Bundy comes down to the extra payroll felxibility you get with him. I think the best argument for Upton over Bundy is he is a better bet to help Baltimore win a World Series in the short term (next three years).

All that said, I can't imagine Bundy alone would net Upton unless there is something wrong with Upton that isn't public knowledge.

Exactly. You feel like Bundy can't even get Upton, and people here value Bundy more than myself. That's why I even said I would do Bundy for Upton straight up. Kevin Towers might pull the trigger with the loss of Bauer, since he ad Bundy are both long toss guys, with heavy fastballs and not big frames. Just my speculation.

[Frobby]

Also, not to be a debbie downer, but the "Bundy is the best pitching prospect in baseball" argument is not a good one. 1) it's highly debatable that's even true, and 2) if he happens to be on the top of someone's list, there's essentially no separation between him and the likes of Cole/Wheeler/Walker/Fernandez. He's a very valuable young arm, but he is not Strasburg. And a whole lot of people here are talking about him as if he's Strasburg.

Just to weigh in on this: Strasburg got a $15 mm signing bonus. I think that really tells you all you need to know about his perceived value, at the time he was drafted, compared to Bundy, who got a package worth $6.6 mm. Even if you can argue that Bundy is the best pitching prospect since Strasburg, that doesn't mean he is anywhere near Strasburg's level as a prospect.

[skanar]

Of course, Upton is at 17.1 fWAR right now and will only be 25 this season. So his odds of being a "star" as you define it are about as close to 100% as it gets.

Your model sounds pretty reasonable to me.

Yes, of course. My model only predicts career values, and cost/team control must be taken into account when evaluating any trade.

Upton was ranked #2 and #9 by BA when he was a prospect. I haven't generated a method to deal with multiple years, but just using the #2 ranking, my model would predict a that Upton would be a success (>5 fWAR) with virtual certainty (~100%) - pitchers and hitters have different odds of success - with about a 60% chance to be a star (>20 fWAR).

[Tx Oriole]

Id trade Bundy for Upton in a heartbeat.

Lets say we have the chance to draft a HS stud, or Justin Upton now...in that draft. I think most would draft Justin, it wasnt even board consensus that Bundy should be our pick. Yet we wont trade 1 for 1?

I am bias because i grew up playing with Justin and would love to see him play for my team, but from the few times i have seen Bundy pitch, i wasnt blown away like i was by Strasburg...and honestly Strasburg, Wieters, Trout, and Stanton may be the only people i wouldnt trade for Upton

Keep in mind, even after his MVP caliber year, for whatever reason, they didnt really seem like they wanted him there. Would your bosses seemingly not wanting you around affect your work focus/performance?

And you would be making a mistake. IMO

[Crazysilver03]

Just to weigh in on this: Strasburg got a $15 mm signing bonus. I think that really tells you all you need to know about his perceived value, at the time he was drafted, compared to Bundy, who got a package worth $6.6 mm. Even if you can argue that Bundy is the best pitching prospect since Strasburg, that doesn't mean he is anywhere near Strasburg's level as a prospect.

Not that I am arguing Bundy is better than Strasburg, but Strasburg was the #1 pick and coming out of college, two things that will inflate the signing bonus.

[skanar]

Just to weigh in on this: Strasburg got a $15 mm signing bonus. I think that really tells you all you need to know about his perceived value, at the time he was drafted, compared to Bundy, who got a package worth $6.6 mm. Even if you can argue that Bundy is the best pitching prospect since Strasburg, that doesn't mean he is anywhere near Strasburg's level as a prospect.

Assume that Bundy somehow was draft-eligible for the 2013 draft. Where would he be drafted (this is obvious) and what sort of bonus could he command? Obviously the draft bonus system has changed, etc., but I think the point is clear: His phenomenal performance in 2012 has changed his value.

[El Gordo]

There are good arguments for Bundy and for Upton. Truth be told, there are probably more projected front-end arms (maybe seven or eight) in the minors right now than potential five tool bats or playable "80" power bats. I think the best argument for holding onto Bundy comes down to the extra payroll felxibility you get with him. I think the best argument for Upton over Bundy is he is a better bet to help Baltimore win a World Series in the short term (next three years).

All that said, I can't imagine Bundy alone would net Upton unless there is something wrong with Upton that isn't public knowledge.

In order for Upton's bat to help us win a WS we have to get there. We aren't likely to get there without a TOR. So if Bundy isn' going to be that, how else are we going to acquire one while our core is intact?

[Stotle]

Just to weigh in on this: Strasburg got a $15 mm signing bonus. I think that really tells you all you need to know about his perceived value, at the time he was drafted, compared to Bundy, who got a package worth $6.6 mm. Even if you can argue that Bundy is the best pitching prospect since Strasburg, that doesn't mean he is anywhere near Strasburg's level as a prospect.

Good observations. And, of course, no one is saying Bundy won't be a stud. But even in the "successful outcomes" portion of his projections, fans should realize that could still mean its two years until he's established and starting to consistently produce.