So how about Brian Roberts today?

[El Gordo]

I find what Roberts is doing very encouraging, but I want to see how he does playing most everyday, against the better quality pitching, the next 11 days.

[crissfan172]

Another big day for BRob. .361/.425/.528 this spring now. There are going to be a lot of posters eating serious crow if this carries over into the season. Especially the "Roberts should just retire and stop stealing the Orioles' money" crowd.

Obviously it's still spring training and a small sample size, but I'm pretty glad to see his ISO is above his career norms. It's nice to know there's still some pop in his bat, though I'd expect that number to come down once the season starts.

[Frobby]

Wait a minute, wait a minute. Most of those numbers were ranked up against minor leaguers. Let not get ahead of ourselves here. I hope BRob can stay healthy and put up great numbers. But his throwing is a real question mark. And him staying healthy is no sure thing. I never thought he should retire but I am still in "prove it" mode for him being able to stay healthy and produce offensively and defensively.

Oh, I agree it's premature to conclude BRob will be productive once the season starts. But there was a certain crowd taking the position that he shouldn't even try, or worse, that he wasn't really trying but was going through the motions to collect his $10 mm (and last year's $10 mm for that matter). That presumptuous attitude really irked me.

But honestly, I'm rooting for BRob to exceed expectations because it will be a huge shot in the arm for the team, not so I can see the "presumptuous" crowd eat crow. That would just be a nice bonus.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well, that was always a stupid argument. I'd love to be "wrong" about Roberts - although the only valid criticism of a projection is re: its methodology, not its results. Copout, or admirable rigor?! You decide!

Right. While we love our outliers, we also know that there's very little precedence for a guy taking off a couple years in his 30s and coming back as good as ever. That's really the Orioles in a nutshell - we root for the hometown boys to win it all, but let's not ignore the data.

[Frobby]

That's really the Orioles in a nutshell - we root for the hometown boys to win it all, but let's not ignore the data (unless we don't like the data).

Fixed that for ya. Anyway, that's Frobby in a nutshell.

[markakis8]

Another big day for BRob. .361/.425/.528 this spring now. There are going to be a lot of posters eating serious crow if this carries over into the season. Especially the "Roberts should just retire and stop stealing the Orioles' money" crowd.

I'm loving how well he's playing. I don't expect those numbers obviously but I never had any doubts he could do a .280/.350/.450 line again. The biggest thing for us will be if he can run the bases like he can. I know the intuitiveness is still there. I'm very excited for him.

[markakis8]

Wait a minute, wait a minute. Most of those numbers were ranked up against minor leaguers. Let not get ahead of ourselves here. I hope BRob can stay healthy and put up great numbers. But his throwing is a real question mark. And him staying healthy is no sure thing. I never thought he should retire but I am still in "prove it" mode for him being able to stay healthy and produce offensively and defensively.

If he hits and runs like his 32-year-old self, throwing from 2nd base will not be a concern.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't expect those numbers obviously but I never had any doubts he could do a .280/.350/.450 line again.

I still have serious doubts he'll ever do that again, at least in any significant number of ABs.

Complete list of second basemen who put up that line or better at age 35+ since 2000:

[TABLE]

<TBODY>[TR]

[TH]Rk

[/TH]

[TH]Player

[/TH]

[TH]PA

[/TH]

[TH]BA

[/TH]

[TH]OBP

[/TH]

[TH]OPS

[/TH]

[TH]Year

[/TH]

[TH]Age

[/TH]

[TH]Tm

[/TH]

[TH]Lg

[/TH]

[TH]G

[/TH]

[TH]AB

[/TH]

[TH]R

[/TH]

[TH]H

[/TH]

[TH]2B

[/TH]

[TH]3B

[/TH]

[TH]HR

[/TH]

[TH]RBI

[/TH]

[TH]BB

[/TH]

[TH]IBB

[/TH]

[TH]SO

[/TH]

[TH]HBP

[/TH]

[TH]SH

[/TH]

[TH]SF

[/TH]

[TH]GDP

[/TH]

[TH]SB

[/TH]

[TH]CS

[/TH]

[TH]SLG

[/TH]

[TH]Pos

[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]Craig Biggio

[/TD]

[TD]717

[/TD]

[TD].292

[/TD]

[TD].382

[/TD]

[TD].838

[/TD]

[TD]2001

[/TD]

[TD]35

[/TD]

[TD]HOU

[/TD]

[TD]NL

[/TD]

[TD]155

[/TD]

[TD]617

[/TD]

[TD]118

[/TD]

[TD]180

[/TD]

[TD]35

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]20

[/TD]

[TD]70

[/TD]

[TD]66

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]100

[/TD]

[TD]28

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]11

[/TD]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD].455

[/TD]

[TD]*4/D

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]Jeff Kent

[/TD]

[TD]637

[/TD]

[TD].289

[/TD]

[TD].377

[/TD]

[TD].889

[/TD]

[TD]2005

[/TD]

[TD]37

[/TD]

[TD]LAD

[/TD]

[TD]NL

[/TD]

[TD]149

[/TD]

[TD]553

[/TD]

[TD]100

[/TD]

[TD]160

[/TD]

[TD]36

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]29

[/TD]

[TD]105

[/TD]

[TD]72

[/TD]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD]85

[/TD]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]19

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD].512

[/TD]

[TD]*43

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]Jeff Kent

[/TD]

[TD]562

[/TD]

[TD].302

[/TD]

[TD].375

[/TD]

[TD].875

[/TD]

[TD]2007

[/TD]

[TD]39

[/TD]

[TD]LAD

[/TD]

[TD]NL

[/TD]

[TD]136

[/TD]

[TD]494

[/TD]

[TD]78

[/TD]

[TD]149

[/TD]

[TD]36

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]20

[/TD]

[TD]79

[/TD]

[TD]57

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]61

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]17

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD].500

[/TD]

[TD]*4

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]Jeff Kent

[/TD]

[TD]552

[/TD]

[TD].297

[/TD]

[TD].351

[/TD]

[TD].860

[/TD]

[TD]2003

[/TD]

[TD]35

[/TD]

[TD]HOU

[/TD]

[TD]NL

[/TD]

[TD]130

[/TD]

[TD]505

[/TD]

[TD]77

[/TD]

[TD]150

[/TD]

[TD]39

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]22

[/TD]

[TD]93

[/TD]

[TD]39

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]85

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]13

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD].509

[/TD]

[TD]*4

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]Jeff Kent

[/TD]

[TD]473

[/TD]

[TD].292

[/TD]

[TD].385

[/TD]

[TD].861

[/TD]

[TD]2006

[/TD]

[TD]38

[/TD]

[TD]LAD

[/TD]

[TD]NL

[/TD]

[TD]115

[/TD]

[TD]407

[/TD]

[TD]61

[/TD]

[TD]119

[/TD]

[TD]27

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]14

[/TD]

[TD]68

[/TD]

[TD]55

[/TD]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD]69

[/TD]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD].477

[/TD]

[TD]*4/3

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]Ray Durham

[/TD]

[TD]426

[/TD]

[TD].289

[/TD]

[TD].380

[/TD]

[TD].813

[/TD]

[TD]2008

[/TD]

[TD]36

[/TD]

[TD]TOT

[/TD]

[TD]NL

[/TD]

[TD]128

[/TD]

[TD]370

[/TD]

[TD]64

[/TD]

[TD]107

[/TD]

[TD]35

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]45

[/TD]

[TD]53

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]72

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD].432

[/TD]

[TD]*4/D

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD]Craig Grebeck

[/TD]

[TD]270

[/TD]

[TD].295

[/TD]

[TD].364

[/TD]

[TD].775

[/TD]

[TD]2000

[/TD]

[TD]35

[/TD]

[TD]TOR

[/TD]

[TD]AL

[/TD]

[TD]66

[/TD]

[TD]241

[/TD]

[TD]38

[/TD]

[TD]71

[/TD]

[TD]19

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]23

[/TD]

[TD]25

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]33

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD].411

[/TD]

[TD]*4/6

[/TD]

[/TR]

</TBODY>[/TABLE]

Edit: Something was obviously screwed up in my query. You can ignore lines 6 and 7, Grebeck and Durham didn't slug .450. So it's really just one year of Biggio and four of Jeff Kent.

[DrungoHazewood]

If he hits and runs like his 32-year-old self, throwing from 2nd base will not be a concern.

He was only slightly better than a league-average hitter at 32. If he puts up a 105 OPS+ and -10 defense at second he's not going to be a very good player.

[Frobby]

I'm loving how well he's playing. I don't expect those numbers obviously but I never had any doubts he could do a .280/.350/.450 line again. The biggest thing for us will be if he can run the bases like he can. I know the intuitiveness is still there. I'm very excited for him.

I very much doubt Roberts will have a .280/.350/.450 line again, even though I'm excited by the good spring he is having. But, I'm hoping to be wrong. And, he doesn't need to produce an .800 OPS to help us. .725-.750 would help a lot.

[LookinUp]

Oh, I agree it's premature to conclude BRob will be productive once the season starts. But there was a certain crowd taking the position that he shouldn't even try, or worse, that he wasn't really trying but was going through the motions to collect his $10 mm (and last year's $10 mm for that matter). That presumptuous attitude really irked me.

But honestly, I'm rooting for BRob to exceed expectations because it will be a huge shot in the arm for the team, not so I can see the "presumptuous" crowd eat crow. That would just be a nice bonus.

Didn't we have an entire thread which made it clear that basically nobody was saying he and the O's shouldn't give it a shot? Most of us were just like RZNJ and Drungo...we just thought the probabilities of him succeeding were very low. I'm sure we'd have all raised our expectations at least a little bit if we knew he'd come back looking like a new man. We'll further raise our expectations as he plays the game more often, slides more and turns more DPs while staying healthy. And we'll even raise it more once he starts producing against MLB pitching.

So, we're basing our expectations on evidence, which was probably right 6 months ago and remains the right way to do it today, no?

[Can_of_corn]

Didn't we have an entire thread which made it clear that basically nobody was saying he and the O's shouldn't give it a shot? Most of us were just like RZNJ and Drungo...we just thought the probabilities of him succeeding were very low. I'm sure we'd have all raised our expectations at least a little bit if we knew he'd come back looking like a new man. We'll further raise our expectations as he plays the game more often, slides more and turns more DPs while staying healthy. And we'll even raise it more once he starts producing against MLB pitching.

So, we're basing our expectations on evidence, which was probably right 6 months ago and remains the right way to do it today, no?

I was in favor of him retiring last year to save the 40 man slot. I did not however make any comments about him stealing money. I advocated a buyout of his contract with deferred money.

[markakis8]

I still have serious doubts he'll ever do that again, at least in any significant number of ABs.

Edit: Something was obviously screwed up in my query. You can ignore lines 6 and 7, Grebeck and Durham didn't slug .450. So it's really just one year of Biggio and four of Jeff Kent.

I very much doubt Roberts will have a .280/.350/.450 line again, even though I'm excited by the good spring he is having. But, I'm hoping to be wrong. And, he doesn't need to produce an .800 OPS to help us. .725-.750 would help a lot.

Would I be shocked if he put up an OPS lower than .800? No. Would I be shocked if he had an OPS of .800? No, I think he's fully capable of doing it. Now if he has a season like 2005 - then I'll be shocked

That's all I'm really saying.

EDIT: If he plays 100+ games, I'd be shocked if he was sub-par too. I think if he's healthy he's going to ignite this team big time.

[Frobby]

Would I be shocked if he put up an OPS lower than .800? No. Would I be shocked if he had an OPS of .800? No, I think he's fully capable of doing it. Now if he has a season like 2005 - then I'll be shocked

That's all I'm really saying.

Very little shocks me in baseball. I've been a fan too long, and seen too much. On the shock-meter, BRob having an .800+ OPS season would be less shocking than the O's winning 93 games last year. Still, I think it's improbable.

[markakis8]

Very little shocks me in baseball. I've been a fan too long, and seen too much. On the shock-meter, BRob having an .800+ OPS season would be less shocking than the O's winning 93 games last year.

Touche