Jim Johnson Today, 2013

[LookitsPuck]

Personally I think Romo gets too much flack. JJ's flack is warranted, though.

[pdiddy]

Personally I think Romo gets too much flack. JJ's flack is warranted, though.

Yes to both. The last int in the Redskins game was horrific though.

[pdiddy]

You are to be commended for being a fan of the Dallas Cowboys!

There are plenty of Romo defenders tho - much like the JJ defenders here.

I think a Romo And Adam Jones are a better comp. both do amazing things and then turn around and are boneheads.

[MrOrange82]

I can't.

I just can't.

[Norfolk orioles]

Yeah...a QB's role in a football game is equal to that of a closer in a baseball game.......

People react to results, not performance. JJ was bad earlier in the season when he was struggling. Not so much the last three outings...especially today.

What the hell are you watching?

Not bad the last three outings?

Leadoff doubles aren't that bad? Walk off hr's aren't that bad?

But down the pipe.

[ScottieBaseball]

OH has a % of posters who must be Dallas Cowboys fans in orange and black drag. They defend JJ just like the Cowboy fans that defend Romo.

For the Boys fans its never Romo's fault. Its always the OL, or the receivers running the wrong route, or Red J's play calling, or Jerry's meddling, or the defense giving up the lead, or just simple misfortune. Its just like OH posters who defend JJ's blown saves. It always the fault of the offense not scoring enough, or its Buck's fault, or, or ,or, now we even break down individual at bats of anybody to place blame for a loss, but its never on JJ's shoulders. He is never responsible even tho he is the only guy making those pathetic pitches.

Comparing Major League Baseball and the NFL and/or comparing an NFL QB to an MLB closer is like comparing apples and hand grenades. Otherwise, your analogy is spot-on.

An NFL QB plays 99% of every offensive snap from kickoff to the final whistle. An MLB closer pitches the last inning, not even close to the equivalent of the 4th quarter. Maybe a better comparison might be "closer to a QB in a 2-minute drill down by 7"?

[NNYyardbird]

At this point when you run him out there you deserve what you get.

[MrOrange82]

Yeah...a QB's role in a football game is equal to that of a closer in a baseball game.......

People react to results, not performance. JJ was bad earlier in the season when he was struggling. Not so much the last three outings...especially today.

If a child's laughter grants an angel her wings, I'm pretty sure that the above gives a squadron of angels the gift of pineapple-sized enemas.

[PaulFolk]

I remember saying what a joke it was that we had a sinkerballer as a closer. I brought up his BABIP and K/9. Was met with some snarkness. Looks who's laughing now.

Really, you're laughing at this? Because you'd rather be proven right than see the Orioles win?

Obvious troll is obvious.

[Barnaby Graves]

Really, you're laughing at this? Because you'd rather be proven right than see the Orioles win?

Obvious troll is obvious.

Might be more fun to watch the Orioles win but it's very annoying to present a reasoned argument for something and be met with blithe condescension. When I said Machado wouldn't make the doubles record I was told I don't watch the games. When I suggested trading Jim Johnson last season I was told I was crazy.

[Three Run Homer]

The only silver lining here (I know, this is stretching it but I need to be able to sleep tonight) is that nobody in the clubhouse would blame Buck for switching to K-Rod in the closer role now...and even at this stage of his career, K-Rod is more likely to succeed down the stretch and in the postseason than JJ.

Of course this depends on Buck finally making a move.

[Three Run Homer]

I remember saying what a joke it was that we had a sinkerballer as a closer. I brought up his BABIP and K/9. Was met with some snarkness. Looks who's laughing now.

The BABIP argument would be more compelling if JJ was making the same quality pitches as he did last year but getting different results. But that's clearly not the case. He's leaving pitches up and in the middle of the plate, and they are getting hit hard. Last year he was at the knees and on the corners far more consistently.

I do think there's something fundamentally inconsistent about sinkerball pitchers. It seems like it's the hardest pitch to maintain command of from one year to the next, or from one game to the next. So I'm sympathetic to the argument that a closer (or starter) who depends on his sinker is inherently less reliable than a pitcher who relies on velocity and the ability to miss bats.

[Barnaby Graves]

Saying "it's a joke that we have a sinkerball closer" is a reasoned argument? Really? In what world?

It implies Johnson is a slave to his BABIP and when your job is all about small sample sizes in rigid situations (no matching up!) and your pitching style is inherently vulnerable to the whims of Lady Luck (with some batted ball xBABIP-related control) you have a recipe for drama. And frankly a lot of people here hold their hands over their ears when they hear someone say "FIP" and even if they are receptive they'll say something like "but FIP and BABIP are just tools" and then the next sentence will be about the virtues of the save statistic.

You're doing yourself a disservice comparing yourself to that guy. He gets derision because he posts aggressive statements where he pats himself on the back real time in the original thread. The premise always has a grain of truth but he goes to far and makes it about him being smart and right rather than the idea. Then he does stuff like this and comes back every time something he posits goes right and does it again. He is an egotist in a major way and people like that, who haven't first earned the respect they such clearly feel should be coming their way, usually get negative feedback.

He might be deliberately annoying in that joyless, condescending college libertarian way but he'll never, ever be able to top the threads made in the wake of a bad loss. They're just horrible. And for that matter, even when things go well it can lead to less rigorous analysis because people just don't want to hear why you think Manny Machado won't bat .340 all year. I actually think there's plenty of other aggressive posters but where he's just aggressive there's people who act aggressive AND myopic AND stupid. A lot of people are totally ruled by emotion around here, except for Can of Corn, who I'm pretty sure is actually a copy of Chessmaster 9000 that became self-aware.

You, on the other hand, post intelligent stuff and your goal doesn't appear to be getting patted on the back for how smart you are. You appear to want a good debate. I'm sure there were folks who fired back at you on the trade JJ stuff and the Machado double stuff because they didn't want their good vibes ruined. The thoughts were sound, but sometimes people can't handle change when things are going well (the same way a lot of people focus on blame rather than solutions when things are going badly and advocate for too much change). I had the same thought re: trading JJ, but I couldn't bring myself to want it because I'm too sentimental and I like the guy which is my weakness, but I always acknowledged the logic of the argument.

Well romanticism is a big part of baseball and sports in general so I get that. I just don't think it's very intellectually stimulating. At least when Joe Posnanski gets sentimental he can break out the abacus and say something interesting.

My advice:

Hang in there and associate yourself with better company.

The king's gotta hold court with his fools every once in a while...

[Can_of_corn]

Neyer adds his two cents:

http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/8/15/4623530/orioles-closer-jim-johnson-blown-saves-demotion

He basically says that JJ is the same pitcher just he was lucky last year and unlucky this year.

The fact that JJ's GB% is down and his FIP is up over half a run is evidently not relevant.

The ultimate answer is of course somewhere in the middle.

[BMann]

ESPN's David Schoenfield says JJ is 2013's Least Valuable Player, and it's hard to dispute.

Jim Johnson, 2013's LVP

Now we just need to convince Buck what everyone else in the baseball universe already knows...