6-6 at .500-Your Thoughts?

[DrungoHazewood]

Everyone in the world including 99% of the fans are wondering if last year was a fluke or if this team is for real. Is Hammel really an ace. Can Chen be better. Was Gonzalez and Tillman a fluke. Is the core of the lineup (Markakis/Jones/Davis/Wieters) good enough. If the "core" of this team, the team that we have now is not good enough to be .500 or better, then no single free agent was going to make us a championship contender.

So what do we win if we find out that this core is a .500-ish team? Some nice parting gifts? In a down year for most of the division it's possible that a couple of three or four win additions were all it takes to push an 81-win team to the playoffs.

If you're not going to make a push during a year where you have additional revenues and you have a 80-something win core in place, then when would you make a move? For years a bunch of us have argued that you don't go make a splash until you have a core and some cash, otherwise you're just wasting money you don't have. Well, the conditions fell into place. And no splash.

[DrungoHazewood]

Seems that the bar keeps moving. Now we have to have two strong years in order to know that we are good enough to add pieces?

Seems pretty clear to me at least that the team won't be adding any more "big" free agents while Angelos is in charge.

It sure looks like this was the test case. Competitive core? Check. Additional revenues from playoffs? Check. Acquisition to put them over the top... not so much.

[glenn__davis]

It sure looks like this was the test case. Competitive core? Check. Additional revenues from playoffs? Check. Acquisition to put them over the top... not so much.

And don't forget the sacred cow - MASNCASHMONEY.

I guess you could make the argument that this FA class was pretty weak and there was no one worth going after (I'd disagree with that but I get the argument), but I don't really think it matters. For the really elite players, there will always be someone willing to pay more than the Orioles at this point.

[luismatos4prez]

Acquisition to put them over the top... not so much.

Seemed to me like they were more than willing to make a move but they didn't see the right one out there.

[DrungoHazewood]

Seemed to me like they were more than willing to make a move but they didn't see the right one out there.

That's not an entirely unreasonable argument. But it's tough to take when we've been repeating the "no free agents until they have an impact" mantra for 10+ years, we have a season where they'd have an impact, and nothing happens.

[webbrick2010]

Wrong. This was the year that we confirmed that the core was good enough to win more games then they lose before we add any huge pieces to it.

Right.... It's never this year, and when we lose 90 games we will have confirmed that our core is rotten and we can trade Hardy, and JJ for prospects and begin the new re-building phase.

Great Plan!!!!

[webbrick2010]

Saunders has had one bad start against a weak A's offense, one good start against the Astros, and a pretty good start against the Rangers. The two good starts in Seattle. But he's allowed 23 baserunners and 7 walks in 17 innings, just hasn't hung a gopherball yet. I kind of like Saunders, being a Hokie and all, but I thought it wasn't crucial to resign him. The O's already had four or five pretty solid candidates for the 5th starter job.

Weak A's offense. Don't they lead the majors in HR's and in first in the AL West??

[DrungoHazewood]

Weak A's offense. Don't they lead the majors in HR's and in first in the AL West??

I have no idea. But their long-term talent is more important to me than whether they have some guys who've been hot for the last 10 days.

[luismatos4prez]

That's not an entirely unreasonable argument. But it's tough to take when we've been repeating the "no free agents until they have an impact" mantra for 10+ years, we have a season where they'd have an impact, and nothing happens.

I get that. Duquette shouldn't base his offseason off of what our expectations are though.

That being said, I think he dropped the ball by not bringing in Saunders or McCarthy for the deals they got.

[ShaneDawg85]

Weak A's offense. Don't they lead the majors in HR's and in first in the AL West??

They finished 8th in the AL last year in runs scored, and much like the O's that you keep repeating in every single thread, didn't make many if any changes. Jed Lowrie isn't going to keep an OPS over 1.000, nor is 33 year old Coco Crisp, Cespedes in on the DL, and they play in the Grand Canyon of ballparks. Maybe weak isn't the right word choice, but they're a very average offense, and they're going to start playing like it soon.

[harp6]

Please note that it is 12 games into the season. It amazes me the comments like "We should have kept Saunders because look what he is doing so far." Maybe it is Saunders year. Maybe it isn't his year. But 3 starts by Saunders indicates very little at this point into the season. Saunders is an average pitcher. His pluses are that he eats innings and he is usually healthy. I think that we have enough pitching depth that we did not need an average pitcher like Saunders. Adam Jones has made two critical mistakes in the outfield that have cost us games. Will that continue at that rate? No. Twelve games is to small a sample size over a long 162 game season. Look at the Dodgers last year. They looked like they were going to run away with the division at the start of the year and eventually did not make the playoffs. The season will be full of good streaks and bad streaks, good times and bad times. You just hope that the O's have what it takes to put up more good than bad.

Let's look at many of the teams around the majors. The teams that I am going to list were either considered contenders or potential to run away with their division. None of the teams listed are doing that much better than the O's at this point. It is still very early in the season.

Toronto 4 - 6

Tampa 4 - 7

Detroit 7 - 5

LA Angels 4 - 8

Washington 7 - 5

St. Louis 7 - 5

Cincinnati 5 - 7

LA Dodgers 7 - 5

[DrungoHazewood]

That being said, I think he dropped the ball by not bringing in Saunders or McCarthy for the deals they got.

I think there's more upside to sticking with the current options than resigning a league-average innings eater. Arrieta or Britton or Jurrjens or Johnson - those guys could be more than solid MLB pitchers. We know that Saunders doesn't have the talent to consistently give you better than back-end of the rotation results.

But with that upside comes risk.

[SteveO]

Positives:

1. None of the starters look totally lost like early last season.

2. Bullpen looks solid and raises the total level of the pitching staff

3. Chris Davis and Adam Jones appear to be taking the next step at the plate as offensive leaders.

4. Machado seems to be more comfortable and improving at the plate

5 The defense outside a few costly gaffes has been much better than early last season.

6. Its early..often good teams will struggle or bad teams get off to a good start. The O's are just middle of the road. Not playing great, not playing awful. Things will straighten out that need to and this team will improve...stay faithful

[Brendan25]

Right.... It's never this year, and when we lose 90 games we will have confirmed that our core is rotten and we can trade Hardy, and JJ for prospects and begin the new re-building phase.

Great Plan!!!!

If we lose 90 games then Josh Hamilton was not going to get us in the playoffs.

[DrungoHazewood]

If we lose 90 games then Josh Hamilton was not going to get us in the playoffs.

Why is losing 90 games the baseline? Do you think this is likely a 90-loss team? The consensus seems to be that this is a team in the low-80s in wins. A Josh Hamilton 4- or 5-win season could very well be the difference between a no playoff 83-win season, and an 88-win wildcard birth.

If you thought this team was a 90-loss team or a 90-win team on paper then standing pat is more defensible.