BP Playoff Odds Snapshot Thread

[Stotle]

September 20

Detroit went 3-1, Baltimore and Kansas City went 2-1, Tampa, Cleveland, Oakland and Texas went 2-2, and New York and Boston went 1-2. The new odds:

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BOS 93-61 98-64 100.% 100.%

TBR 83-69 89-73 70.0% 00.0%

BAL 81-71 86-76 09.0% 00.0%

NYY 80-73 84-78 01.0% 00.0%

DET 89-64 95-67 100.% 99.9%

CLE 83-70 88-74 49.0% 00.1%

KCR 80-72 85-77 04.0% 00.0%

OAK 90-63 95-67 100.% 99.7%

TEX 83-69 89-73 67.1% 00.3%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

It's interesting that, although Texas and Tampa have identical records and just split four games, Tampa's playoff odds went slightly down and Texas' odds went up compared to where they were just prior to that series.

I believe that is due to slight changes in strength of remaining schedule and inputs into team peripherals metric.

[Frobby]

Bump... resuming this thread from last year. I plan to update it once a week or so. Only the teams with at least some remote shot are listed.

Through 7/31/14

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BAL 60-47 88-74 71.5% 49.2%

TOR 60-50 87-75 60.1% 38.1%

NYY 55-52 82-80 18.4% 08.6%

TBR 53-55 81-81 10.1% 04.1%

DET 58-47 89-73 87.3% 83.9%

KCR 55-52 82-80 16.5% 09.4%

CLE 53-55 81-81 09.6% 04.8%

CWS 52-56 78-84 03.9% 01.7%

OAK 66-41 97-65 99.9% 61.9%

LAA 63-43 95-67 99.4% 38.0%

SEA 56-52 83-79 23.0% 00.1%

*The "projected record" is based on a simulator playing the upcoming remainder of the season 1,000,000 times, and taking the average of all the outcomes. Strength of schedule is taken into account in these projections. The results reported above are rounded to the nearest projected win/loss.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Edited August 8, 2014 by Frobby

[Ohfan67]

Jays are 60-50. Typo.

Thanks for posting this. It will be interesting to see if the A's pound on LAA a bit and reduce their odds. If so, then an AL East team still has a shot at the wildcard.

[Morgan423]

Trying to figure out how some of the teams on the list are given smidgen chances to make the playoffs (like .2%) but have a flat 0% of a WS win. If you make the playoffs, you can make the WS with a lucky stretch of games.

[Ohfan67]

Trying to figure out how some of the teams on the list are given smidgen chances to make the playoffs (like .2%) but have a flat 0% of a WS win. If you make the playoffs, you can make the WS with a lucky stretch of games.

I think that means they have played very poorly against good teams. The program includes how they have fared against difference levels of competition, the quality of the teams they will face the rest of the season, and the quality of the teams they are likely to face in the playoffs. The percentages are based on the simulation runs, so that 0.1% Division probability for Seattle must indicate that they haven't won a lot of games against good competition. And this estimate would have a sizable standard error, so the model is really probably saying their probability of winning the division is somewhere between zero and like 25%. I don't think they include standard error or confidence interval in their results, but it exists. As it gets closer to the finish like the estimates, of course, will get better and better.

[Ohfan67]

I think that means they have played very poorly against good teams. The program includes how they have fared against difference levels of competition, the quality of the teams they will face the rest of the season, and the quality of the teams they are likely to face in the playoffs. The percentages are based on the simulation runs, so that 0.1% Division probability for Seattle must indicate that they haven't won a lot of games against good competition. And this estimate would have a sizable standard error, so the model is really probably saying their probability of winning the division is somewhere between zero and like 25%. I don't think they include standard error or confidence interval in their results, but it exists. As it gets closer to the finish like the estimates, of course, will get better and better.

finish line, not finish like. darn typos!

[Bradysburns]

Jays are 60-50. Typo.

Thanks for posting this. It will be interesting to see if the A's pound on LAA a bit and reduce their odds. If so, then an AL East team still has a shot at the wildcard.

Apparently, the Jays aren't going to lose any more games this year. Nope. We just went 7-3. And they picked up 2 games on us. That really pisses me off. Thank goodness Buck's Birds are the grinders of all grinders. They're so resilient. But man, it has to tick them off too if they're watching the standings.

I wonder if folks are still interested in lampooning Toronto for spending all that money to bring in the talent. They're for real. I think the division will come down to the Orioles and Toronto. And I fully expect Boston to make a late charge at respectability also.

[weams]

Apparently, the Jays aren't going to lose any more games this year. Nope. We just went 7-3. And they picked up 2 games on us. That really pisses me off. Thank goodness Buck's Birds are the grinders of all grinders. They're so resilient. But man, it has to tick them off too if they're watching the standings.

I wonder if folks are still interested in lampooning Toronto for spending all that money to bring in the talent. They're for real. I think the division will come down to the Orioles and Toronto. And I fully expect Boston to make a late charge at respectability also.

I'll lampoon them for spending the money and for trading away their future. Stroman has been the difference. I still think they do not make the playoffs.

[Can_of_corn]

Bump... resuming this thread from last year. I plan to update it once a week or so. Only the teams with at least some remote shot are listed.

Through 7/31/14

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BAL 60-47 88-74 71.5% 49.2%

TOR 50-50 87-75 60.1% 38.1%

NYY 55-52 82-80 18.4% 08.6%

TBR 53-55 81-81 10.1% 04.1%

DET 58-47 89-73 87.3% 83.9%

KCR 55-52 82-80 16.5% 09.4%

CLE 53-55 81-81 09.6% 04.8%

CWS 52-56 78-84 03.9% 01.7%

OAK 66-41 97-65 99.9% 61.9%

LAA 63-43 95-67 99.4% 38.0%

SEA 56-52 83-79 23.0% 00.1%

*The "projected record" is based on a simulator playing the upcoming remainder of the season 1,000,000 times, and taking the average of all the outcomes. Strength of schedule is taken into account in these projections. The results reported above are rounded to the nearest projected win/loss.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

So will all the moves yesterday the team that most improved it's chances to make the playoffs were the Blue Jays, who didn't make a move.

[incubus]

I think it's reasonable to say that the O's could go 30-25 to finish the season @ 90 wins. I don't think it will end up a 1 game difference for the division. 3-4 sounds good to me.

[PaulFolk]

Trying to figure out how some of the teams on the list are given smidgen chances to make the playoffs (like .2%) but have a flat 0% of a WS win. If you make the playoffs, you can make the WS with a lucky stretch of games.

I think that means they have played very poorly against good teams. The program includes how they have fared against difference levels of competition, the quality of the teams they will face the rest of the season, and the quality of the teams they are likely to face in the playoffs. The percentages are based on the simulation runs, so that 0.1% Division probability for Seattle must indicate that they haven't won a lot of games against good competition. And this estimate would have a sizable standard error, so the model is really probably saying their probability of winning the division is somewhere between zero and like 25%. I don't think they include standard error or confidence interval in their results, but it exists. As it gets closer to the finish like the estimates, of course, will get better and better.

And also, some of those teams may only have a chance to make it as a wild card team rather than a division winner, and a wild card team has much worse odds to win the WS because they have to get through the Wild Card Game.

But even if you wanted to assume all 10 playoff teams have a 1 in 10 chance of winning the WS, you'd take their odds of making the playoffs and divide that by 10 to find their probability of winning the WS. So a team like Boston that has a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs would only have a 0.01% chance of winning the WS--which would be rounded down to zero.

[Frobby]

Through 8/7/14

Over the last week, the Royals went 5-1, the Orioles and Yankees went 5-2, the Mariners went 3-2, the Tigers, Indians, and A's went 4-3, the Angels went 4-4, the White Sox went 3-4, the Rays went 2-4, and the Blue Jays went 1-5. Our 3.5 game gain on Toronto catapulted our odds of winning the division from 49.2% to 73.8% in a week's time.

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

BAL 65-49 89-73 86.3% 73.8%

TOR 61-55 85-77 28.7% 12.8%

NYY 60-54 84-78 25.3% 11.3%

TBR 55-59 81-81 05.7% 02.1%

DET 62-50 89-73 84.9% 79.2%

KCR 60-53 84-78 34.3% 17.6%

CLE 57-58 81-81 08.2% 03.7%

CWS 55-60 77-85 00.9% 00.6%

OAK 70-44 97-65 99.8% 68.5%

LAA 67-47 94-68 99.3% 31.3%

SEA 59-54 84-78 26.3% 00.2%

*The "projected record" is based on a simulator playing the upcoming remainder of the season 1,000,000 times, and taking the average of all the outcomes. Strength of schedule is taken into account in these projections. The results reported above are rounded to the nearest projected win/loss.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[incubus]

TOR 61-55 85-77 28.7% 12.8%

NYY 60-54 84-78 25.3% 11.3%

KCR 60-53 84-78 34.3% 17.6%

SEA 59-54 84-78 26.3% 00.2%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

It looks like that second Wild Card spot is going to be the tightest race in baseball down the stretch.

[Crabby9]

It looks like that second Wild Card spot is going to be the tightest race in baseball down the stretch.

Detroit is not out of the woods with KC starting to catch fire.

Can anyone imagine a scenario where Oakland and Detroit don't win their divisions? They are both only up 3.

[callahan09]

65-49. If we play .500 ball the rest of the way that gets us to 89 wins. We only need to turn one of those losses into a win and we're at 90 wins. I like our chances.