Expectations for the "Solid Six"

[Frobby]

I'm calling these guys the "solid six" because they played almost every game this year and are under contract for next season.

Chris Davis (28 years old next season)

2013: .286/.370/.634, 53 HR, 138 RBI

2012: .270/.326/.501, 33 HR, 85 RBI

Career: .266/.327/.512, 35 HR, 98 RBI (162 game average)

J.J. Hardy (31 years old next season)

2013: .263/.306/.433, 25 HR, 76 RBI

2012: .238/.282/.389, 22 HR, 68 RBI

Career: .260/.312/.428, 23 HR, 76 RBI

Manny Machado (21 years old next season)

2013: .283/.314/.445, 14 HR, 71 RBI

2012: .262/.294/.445, 7 HR, 26 RBI

Career: .279/.309/.435, 16 HR, 76 RBI

Matt Wieters (28 years old next season)

2013: .235/.287/.417, 22 HR, 79 RBI

2012: .249/.329/.435, 23 HR, 83 RBI

Career: .255/.319/.420, 21 HR, 81 RBI

Adam Jones (28 years old next season)

2013: .285/.318/.493, 33 HR, 108 RBI

2012: .287/.334/.505, 32 HR, 82 RBI

Career: .279/.322/.460, 24 HR, 82 RBI

Nick Markakis (30 years old next season)

2013: .271/.329/.356, 10 HR, 59 RBI

2012: .298/.363/.471, 13 HR, 54 RBI

Career: .292/.360/.441, 17 HR, 81 RBI

I ran a group comparison for 2013 vs. 2012, in which I tripled Manny Machado's numbers for 2012 (he played only 51 games), and marked up Nick Markakis' numbers by 50% (he played only 104 games) to make them more comparable. Here's how that looks:

2013: .271/.320/.459, 157 HR, 531 RBI

2012: .268/.320/.457, 151 HR, 477 RBI

Career: .272/.325/.449, 136 HR, 494 RBI (simple average of the six players' 162-game averages)

Overall, I think it's unrealistic to expect to get anything more from these six players as a group in 2014 than we got this year. We can hope that Markakis and Wieters rebound towards their career norms and that Manny continues to grow, but Davis is highly likely to decline and Hardy at 31 figures to decline a little. Jones probably is who he is at this point.

Most importantly, the chances that all six of these guys stay completely healthy in 2014, as they pretty much did this year (except for Manny's injury with six games left to play), are not very good. The Orioles were very fortunate that these six core guys did not have a single trip to the DL among them.

So, if the team is to make improvements, it's going to have to come from the 2B/LF/DH spots and the bench, not from expecting our core guys to contribute more than they did this year. I'll leave you with this:

"Solid Six" .271/.320/.459, 157 HR, 531 RBI in 3995 PA

"The Rest": .238/.294/.378, 55 HR, 188 RBI in 2149 PA

[jamalshw]

I'm calling these guys the "solid six" because they played almost every game this year and are under contract for next season.

Chris Davis (28 years old next season)

2013: .286/.370/.634, 53 HR, 138 RBI

2012: .270/.326/.501, 33 HR, 85 RBI

Career: .266/.327/.512, 35 HR, 98 RBI (162 game average)

J.J. Hardy (31 years old next season)

2013: .263/.306/.433, 25 HR, 76 RBI

2012: .238/.282/.389, 22 HR, 68 RBI

Career: .260/.312/.428, 23 HR, 76 RBI

Manny Machado (21 years old next season)

2013: .283/.314/.445, 14 HR, 71 RBI

2012: .262/.294/.445, 7 HR, 26 RBI

Career: .279/.309/.435, 16 HR, 76 RBI

Matt Wieters (28 years old next season)

2013: .235/.287/.417, 22 HR, 79 RBI

2012: .249/.329/.435, 23 HR, 83 RBI

Career: .255/.319/.420, 21 HR, 81 RBI

Adam Jones (28 years old next season)

2013: .285/.318/.493, 33 HR, 108 RBI

2012: .287/.334/.505, 32 HR, 82 RBI

Career: .279/.322/.460, 24 HR, 82 RBI

Nick Markakis (30 years old next season)

2013: .271/.329/.356, 10 HR, 59 RBI

2012: .298/.363/.471, 13 HR, 54 RBI

Career: .292/.360/.441, 17 HR, 81 RBI

I ran a group comparison for 2013 vs. 2012, in which I tripled Manny Machado's numbers for 2012 (he played only 51 games), and marked up Nick Markakis' numbers by 50% (he played only 104 games) to make them more comparable. Here's how that looks:

2013: .271/.320/.459, 157 HR, 531 RBI

2012: .268/.320/.457, 151 HR, 477 RBI

Career: .272/.325/.449, 136 HR, 494 RBI (simple average of the six players' 162-game averages)

Overall, I think it's unrealistic to expect to get anything more from these six players as a group in 2014 than we got this year. We can hope that Markakis and Wieters rebound towards their career norms and that Manny continues to grow, but Davis is highly likely to decline and Hardy at 31 figures to decline a little. Jones probably is who he is at this point.

Most importantly, the chances that all six of these guys stay completely healthy in 2014, as they pretty much did this year (except for Manny's injury with six games left to play), are not very good. The Orioles were very fortunate that these six core guys did not have a single trip to the DL among them.

So, if the team is to make improvements, it's going to have to come from the 2B/LF/DH spots and the bench, not from expecting our core guys to contribute more than they did this year. I'll leave you with this:

"Solid Six" .271/.320/.459, 157 HR, 531 RBI in 3995 PA

"The Rest": .238/.294/.378, 55 HR, 188 RBI in 2149 PA

Nice research on all of this. I think your assessment is pretty spot on and the most we can realistically hope for in 2014 from these six is the total production in 2013, though I do hope it's a bit more evenly spread out.

As for 2B, LF and DH, I think we already have a partial solution in Valencia. He was solid once put in the role as DH v. LHP and if we can find a platoon counterpart can improve that position pretty cheaply and easily. I think the main improvement will have to come from either 2B and/or LF and that OBP should be a HUGE consideration.

[mdbdotcom]

I think they should take a serious look at trading Hardy this off-season. He's signed for one more year and he'll be 32 when his next contract begins. Hypothetically, we could move Manny to SS and play Valencia/Flaherty at 3B with Schoop at 2B (or someone else if Schoop isn't ready). A package of Hardy and Norris (who doesn't pitch well at OPACY) could bring back a starting outfielder who fits in age-wise and contract-wise better than any available on the free agent market.

I'm just guessing this idea will not be popular here.

[Frobby]

I think they should take a serious look at trading Hardy this off-season. He's signed for one more year and he'll be 32 when his next contract begins. Hypothetically, we could move Manny to SS and play Valencia/Flaherty at 3B with Schoop at 2B (or someone else if Schoop isn't ready). A package of Hardy and Norris (who doesn't pitch well at OPACY) could bring back a starting outfielder who fits in age-wise and contract-wise better than any available on the free agent market.

I'm just guessing this idea will not be popular here.

I could see trading Hardy if we were getting an attractive package in return. But I'm not wild about it, mainly because I don't think Schoop is ready and I don't really like the idea of downgrading the defense on the left side of our infield.

[jamalshw]

I think they should take a serious look at trading Hardy this off-season. He's signed for one more year and he'll be 32 when his next contract begins. Hypothetically, we could move Manny to SS and play Valencia/Flaherty at 3B with Schoop at 2B (or someone else if Schoop isn't ready). A package of Hardy and Norris (who doesn't pitch well at OPACY) could bring back a starting outfielder who fits in age-wise and contract-wise better than any available on the free agent market.

I'm just guessing this idea will not be popular here.

It's a fair point. It's the idea of trading a piece while you can still get good value for it. It's trying to maximize your assets. I understand the idea, but don't agree that it's the best solution.

Manny could slide over and play SS, but then you go from plus defense at both SS and 3B to questions on defense at both. I think Manny will adjust quickly to the change back to his natural position, but you have to remember than his off-season will be spent rehabbing more than making the adjustment. Even if we accept that Manny at SS will be as good defensively (or even marginally better if you want to go that far) I am pretty confident that Flaherty/Valencia platoon at 3B will be a significant defensive downgrade. Not to mention, it opens up an additional hole in the offense.

In terms of an overall organizational move, trading Hardy know may be the best asset management, but it will also make winning in 2014 much more difficult. I don't know if the trading partner match-up is there. I understand improving LF, but a SS of Hardy's caliber (or a 3B or Manny's) is harder to find if you ask me.

I guess, my reaction as a generic concept, I'm against this idea, but can understand the thought. If there is a firmer idea of who we'd trade with and who we'd get in return, I could potentially get behind it if I thought it would vastly improve the team.

[Frobby]

One thing to note about the Solid Six -- they're not a high OBP group. When your best six players have a collective .320 OBP, it's pretty hard to expect your team to be in the top half of the league, OBP-wise. You can look to make improvements, but without spending a ton of money at the other three spots, it's hard to do much.

[mdbdotcom]

It's a fair point. It's the idea of trading a piece while you can still get good value for it. It's trying to maximize your assets. I understand the idea, but don't agree that it's the best solution.

Manny could slide over and play SS, but then you go from plus defense at both SS and 3B to questions on defense at both. I think Manny will adjust quickly to the change back to his natural position, but you have to remember than his off-season will be spent rehabbing more than making the adjustment. Even if we accept that Manny at SS will be as good defensively (or even marginally better if you want to go that far) I am pretty confident that Flaherty/Valencia platoon at 3B will be a significant defensive downgrade. Not to mention, it opens up an additional hole in the offense.

In terms of an overall organizational move, trading Hardy know may be the best asset management, but it will also make winning in 2014 much more difficult. I don't know if the trading partner match-up is there. I understand improving LF, but a SS of Hardy's caliber (or a 3B or Manny's) is harder to find if you ask me.

I guess, my reaction as a generic concept, I'm against this idea, but can understand the thought. If there is a firmer idea of who we'd trade with and who we'd get in return, I could potentially get behind it if I thought it would vastly improve the team.

Part of my thinking is my belief that the O's will not contend for a WS championship until the top of the rotation is considerably better, which could be the case by 2015. Use 2014 to get ready for it.

[jamalshw]

Part of my thinking is my belief that the O's will not contend for a WS championship until the top of the rotation is considerably better, which could be the case by 2015. Use 2014 to get ready for it.

If you are not planning on seriously competing in 2014, then fine. I don't want to punt another season though. The core is getting older and more expensive.

[mdbdotcom]

If you are not planning on seriously competing in 2014, then fine. I don't want to punt another season though. The core is getting older and more expensive.

I don't consider it a punt. We should still contend for a playoff spot, even after the trade, but I don't think we'll have the arms to win the WS.

[wildcard]

There is a much better chance that the O's extend Hardy for two years this off season then trade him. I don't see Buck or DD breaking up the left side IF defense.

OBP needs to be the emphasis for LF and the platoon partner for Valencia at DH. These two area are secondary to the upgrade of the rotation though.

2014 will be the O's best chance vs the competition in the East for a while. Yankees holding back on spending for just one more year.

[Redskins Rick]

I dont see the logic of trading Hardy and moving Manny to short.

Yes Manny would be a great shortstop.

But, you would then have to fill the hole at third, and we've been there done that.

Manny and Hardy make a great left side of the diamond combination. I hope they stay together for a few more years.

[El Gordo]

If We could just turn the solid six into a solid seven, by adding a LF, we would go a long way towards upgrading the offense. I see no reason not to expect Manny, Nick, and Wieters, to improve their OBP. They are all capable of doing much better than they did in 2013. Out of all these LF options we should be able to come up with decent production from one of them.

Ellsbury

Granderson

Beltran

Cruz

Byrd

Hart

D.Young

Ibanez

Murphy/Pearce

McLouth/R. Davis

[osfan83]

I think we have a small window right now. We finally have a core all hitting their prime at about the same time (Manny playing at a high level at a young age, and assuming Nick can get back close to career norms). I think we get two years to try and win it all, so I don't think we should be giving up valuable pieces. We need to add where we can, and get to the post season the next two years. Once you are in, anything can happen.

[El Gordo]

There is a much better chance that the O's extend Hardy for two years this off season then trade him. I don't see Buck or DD breaking up the left side IF defense.

OBP needs to be the emphasis for LF and the platoon partner for Valencia at DH. These two area are secondary to the upgrade of the rotation though.

2014 will be the O's best chance vs the competition in the East for a while. Yankees holding back on spending for just one more year.

I disagree with this. Ideally upgrading the SP should be primary. But realistically there is no way we can do that with out spending much more than PA would accept or trading away too much talent. So realistically the best way to imprioe the team is to focus on LF and to a lesser extent LH DH.

[El Gordo]

I think we have a small window right now. We finally have a core all hitting their prime at about the same time (Manny playing at a high level at a young age, and assuming Nick can get back close to career norms). I think we get two years to try and win it all, so I don't think we should be giving up valuable pieces. We need to add where we can, and get to the post season the next two years. Once you are in, anything can happen.

The window begins closing quickly with the loss of Wieters and Davis in 2 years. So I think the real game plan is to give the appearance of bolstering the core and competing the next two years, while actually continuing a long term rebuild and aiming for a point in time much farther in to the future.