The Adam Jones Projection Thread

[25 Nuggets]

Here's how Adam Jones' top ten similar batters through his age 27 season performed in their respective age 28 seasons:

courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

Reggie Smith

495 PA, .303/.398/.515 (.913 OPS)

Andre Dawson

698 PA, .299/.338/.539 (.877 OPS)

Dave Winfield

643 PA, .276/.365/.450 (.815 OPS)

Harold Baines

554 PA, .293/.352/.479 (.831 OPS)

Jack Clark

249 PA, .320/.434/.537 (.971 OPS) *injured

Vernon Wells

642 PA, .245/.304/.402 (.706 OPS)

Shawn Green

701 PA, .297/.372/.598 (.970 OPS)

Jeff Francouer

603 PA, .235/.287/.378 (.665 OPS)

Carlos Beltran

650 PA, .266/.330/.414 (.744 OPS)

Grady Sizemore

295 PA, .224/.285/.422 (.706 POS) *injured

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It's interesting to see the wide variance of how these guys did. Smith, Dawson and Green put up one of their career seasons. Wells, Beltran and Francouer fell off dramaticallly (Francouer for good).

Which path will Jones follow? Well I don't think he'll end up like Francouer or Sizemore... but still his OBP has not developed like some of the bigger HOF/HOVG types on the list had developed by then. I think the ceiling for Jones next year will look most like Andre Dawson's age 28 season -- slight improvements across the board.

[Frobby]

Here's how Adam Jones' top ten similar batters through his age 27 season performed in their respective age 28 seasons:

----------

It's interesting to see the wide variance of how these guys did. Smith, Dawson and Green put up one of their career seasons. Wells, Beltran and Francouer fell off dramaticallly (Francouer for good).

Which path will Jones follow? Well I don't think he'll end up like Francouer or Sizemore... but still his OBP has not developed like some of the bigger HOF/HOVG types on the list had developed by then. I think the ceiling for Jones next year will look most like Andre Dawson's age 28 season -- slight improvements across the board.

The thing about Jones is he's been pretty consistent in his Orioles career: always between .270 and .287 in BA, .311 to .335 in OBP. His power has spiked the last two years. I'd be hard pressed to see him below .775 OPS even if he trails off somewhat. That Dawson year (.299/.338/.439) looks to be pretty close to Jones' upside, I'd be pretty surprised if he exceeded that.

By the way, I voted for .850+, just on gut instinct. I think Jones is really more of an .825ish hitter for the next several years, but I have a feeling this year could be his best.

[Sanfran327]

The thing about Jones is he's been pretty consistent in his Orioles career: always between .270 and .287 in BA, .311 to .335 in OBP. His power has spiked the last two years. I'd be hard pressed to see him below .775 OPS even if he trails off somewhat. That Dawson year (.299/.338/.439) looks to be pretty close to Jones' upside, I'd be pretty surprised if he exceeded that.

Think there's potential to have two 40 HR guys in our lineup in either of the next two years? I think AJ can hit 40 at his absolute best. CD, obviously.

[Ripken]

I think he finishes just under .800 after posting .811 last year. I don't believe he'll see too many strikes, especially if CD is hitting 3rd and AJ 4th. That's why I desperately wanted a real DH in the 5 hole, Wieters isn't good enough to hit higher than 6th.

[weams]

We are very fortunate to have Adam Jones. I think he will hit .300 with 35 HRs this season.

[MarylandAaron]

He's possibly one of the best all-around players in the league right now, so I think he'll keep on mashing in 2014. .825-.849.

[El Gordo]

Buck put I best about AJ. He gets in his own way with emotional AB. Hopefully he matures enough to patiently stick with the approach he knows works best for him, before his skills start to decline. It seldom happens that way though. By the time you truly know how to play the game your body doesn't cooperate any more.

[OFFNY]

.

At least 34 home runs.

I want the pattern to continue (Jones going up in home runs every year since the Orioles acquired him.)

The lone exception was staying even (19 to 19) for the 2009 and 2010 seasons.

.

2008: 19

2009: 19

2010: 19

2011: 25

2012: 32

2013: 33

************

2014: 34 or more

[Babypowder]

He's possibly one of the best all-around players in the league right now, so I think he'll keep on mashing in 2014. .825-.849.

That depends on where your cut off is for one of the best in the league. Last year, he was around the 35th best player in baseball. He was the third best player on the Orioles.

[BohKnowsBmore]

That depends on where your cut off is for one of the best in the league. Last year, he was around the 35th best player in baseball. He was the third best player on the Orioles.

I mean, yea I guess if you use WAR as an absolute.

[Frobby]

I'm bumping all the projection threads I've done in the last week or so to encourage everyone to get their votes in today. Over the weekend, I'm going to look them over and post some conclusions about where the OH community seems to be with respect to the Solid Six.

[oriole]

I think Jones continues to improve. He seems to get better every year, why would this year be any different?

[33rdst]

I like Adam for .810. A little less power a little better OBP.

[OFFNY]

.

HR's: 34

RBI's: 106

BA: .288

OBP: .334

R's: 105

2B's: 38

3B's: 2

SB's: 13

BB's: 38

SO's: 114

HBP: 8

MVP: 16

ALL-STAR GAME: Yes.

GATORADE: Switch back and forth between Fruit Punch and Cool Blue all season long.

[OFFNY]

.

A.J. is 12 hits away from 1,000 for his career.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesad01.shtml

If he stays healthy, he should break the 200 (career) doubles mark this season, also (he's currently at 174.)