O's won't let lost draft pick keep them from pursuing free agents

[Greg]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/o-s-won-t-let-lost-pick-keep-them-from-pursuing-free-agents-021514

Really good read.

[Ven6]

It is a good read, and I'm right there with the author and DD. Hate losing the pick, but it's time to strike and improve this team with a quality starter.

[hoosiers]

I can understand advocating signing a player or two and losing a draft pick or two such that we are a much more competitive team.

I completely disagree with the two year window concept however. If we traded Davis and Wieters and received a legitimate haul in prospects and if we kept our draft picks and waited for EdRod, Bundy, Schoop and Gausman to develop, we would have both a deeper and cheaper roster of talent from which to compete. If we did deal those players and kept the picks, it is difficult to imagine the "window of competitiveness" in that scenario being less than 4 years - albeit a window probably beginning in 2016.

[orioles119]

If this is the case, get Jimenez, Morales, and Bonifacio. I'll take that offseason.

[gold21030]

If this is the case, get Jimenez, Morales, and Bonifacio. I'll take that offseason.

The rumor is Bonifacio is going to the Cubs.

[TheBee]

I didn't understand his comment that the Orioles didn't have many pitching prospects after Gausman. Bundy, Rodriguez, Harvey, Berry, And Wright are the main reason we are 10th to 12th in rankings as he points out in the article.

[clapdiddy]

I can understand advocating signing a player or two and losing a draft pick or two such that we are a much more competitive team.

I completely disagree with the two year window concept however. If we traded Davis and Wieters and received a legitimate haul in prospects and if we kept our draft picks and waited for EdRod, Bundy, Schoop and Gausman to develop, we would have both a deeper and cheaper roster of talent from which to compete. If we did deal those players and kept the picks, it is difficult to imagine the "window of competitiveness" in that scenario being less than 4 years - albeit a window probably beginning in 2016.

While I agree with what you are saying, there's no guarantee that any of our prospects are going to be the "real deal".

Are we certain what we'd get back for Davis and Wieters right now would be a "haul"? I'm just not that confident that teams are that willing to give up young, close-to-the-bigs ready players any more. The economics of the game dictate that it's better to try to hold onto those guys.

Personally, I wouldn't mind signing BOTH Santana and Jimenez. This would give us starting pitching depth and possibly allow us to move some excess pitching for prospects. I don't think that would happen, but I think that would be a shrewd move. A Tillman, Jimenez, Santana, Chen, Gonzo rotation would keep us in most games and keep the bullpen from getting over-utilized.

Good organizations find ways to compete and "reload" simultaneously. There's no reason we can't do that here.

[hoosiers]

Good organizations find ways to compete and "reload" simultaneously. There's no reason we can't do that here.

I am not too familiar with the good organizations that deal and sign away their first round, supplemental first round and second round picks. Are you?

[Os84]

I like the comment from Duquette suggesting that giving up a second pick wouldn't require as much thought once the first one is gone. The fact that he came out and said that makes me think that there is a real possibility that the Orioles could land one of Santana/Jimenez + Morales.

[clapdiddy]

I am not too familiar with the good organizations that deal and sign away their first round, supplemental first round and second round picks. Are you?

I dunno. How many have done it up until now? How has our scouting/development done up to this point? I think it's gotten better since DD took over, but I'm not seeing dramatic improvement.

If this team is keeping Wieters and Davis for two years, would you rather we just let these two years play out and not go for it?

Personally, I'm sick of waiting, and would rather take the chance that we can put it together either in 2014 or 2015. Next year's free agent crop isn't all that great. We know we're not going after the top dogs, so why not take a chance THIS offseason and get two pitchers that aren't aces, but could be nice 2/3 or 3/4 starters for the next couple of seasons. Then, we can let Gausman, Bundy, Rodriguez, Harvey, etc. push their way on the team. Maybe we deal one of these guys we just sign if our young guys are ready next season and grab a prospect or two that way.

Like I said...I don't think your idea is a bad one. I just know that we're NOT going to deal Davis and Wieters.

[VeveJones007]

I can understand advocating signing a player or two and losing a draft pick or two such that we are a much more competitive team.

I completely disagree with the two year window concept however. If we traded Davis and Wieters and received a legitimate haul in prospects and if we kept our draft picks and waited for EdRod, Bundy, Schoop and Gausman to develop, we would have both a deeper and cheaper roster of talent from which to compete. If we did deal those players and kept the picks, it is difficult to imagine the "window of competitiveness" in that scenario being less than 4 years - albeit a window probably beginning in 2016.

You build around Chris Davis. The O's are capable of extending him and I strongly believe they will.

This window isn't going anywhere with that pitching on the horizon.

[VeveJones007]

I don't believe there is a two year window. Instead, a new window could be opening if Bundy and Gausman progress the way we hope they will. Of course, those two and Machado were top 6 picks. Those are the premium type picks that give you the best chance of getting impact players. Losing picks hurts but the odds of getting impact ML talent at 17 and later are long. I have no problem giving up the picks and taking the hit this year. Now, here is the caveat. Using the money saved on those picks (3M?) to sign a Cuban or Korean or maxing out their international pool money would ease the hit taken on the domestic draft. Isn't Urrutia at 775K the equivalent of a 2nd round pick or maybe even a 17 pick? Certainly, a team like the Orioles doesn't want to make a habit of giving up picks, but right now we look like we could be recouping 2 or 3 in the next 2 years also.

For every Mike Trout, which is like finding a needle in a haystack, there are dozens of Chris Marreros, Julio Borbons, and Jemile Weeks, former round picks picked up for next to nothing this winter. Look no further than form overall #1 pick Delmon Young and former #4 overall Brian Matusz to see what a crap shoot the draft can be. There is strength in numbers and giving up the picks hurts but it shouldn't prevent the team from making FA moves this time.

Yep. I'm more concerned about future payroll flexibility than #17.

[atomic]

I am not too familiar with the good organizations that deal and sign away their first round, supplemental first round and second round picks. Are you?

Most good teams don't even have the supplemental first round picks.

[canonfaz]

I'm not a fan of giving up the pick, but at this point, I'm inclined to bite the bullet. DD really screwed this up, there was no need to give up a pick for a "good" starting pitcher. There were plenty on the market this year that didn't require the pick (Hudson, Garza, Arroyo, Burnett, Feldman, Colon, Nolasco, etc).

[Il BuonO]

I don't believe there is a two year window. Instead, a new window could be opening if Bundy and Gausman progress the way we hope they will. Of course, those two and Machado were top 6 picks. Those are the premium type picks that give you the best chance of getting impact players. Losing picks hurts but the odds of getting impact ML talent at 17 and later are long. I have no problem giving up the picks and taking the hit this year. Now, here is the caveat. Using the money saved on those picks (3M?) to sign a Cuban or Korean or maxing out their international pool money would ease the hit taken on the domestic draft. Isn't Urrutia at 775K the equivalent of a 2nd round pick or maybe even a 17 pick? Certainly, a team like the Orioles doesn't want to make a habit of giving up picks, but right now we look like we could be recouping 2 or 3 in the next 2 years also.

I think this is my problem with what they've been doing and also the hypocrisy with many of their previous statements. I don't see the spending with the saved money on the international talent. I seem to remember them saying the Orioles were not going to build through FA, but now here comes this story blowing that theory apart. I wouldn't have a problem with it either but Stotle and others have been on record saying this is an extraordinarily deep draft.

Here are some projections for Gausman, Santana and Jimenez. I don't see that much of a difference and even if he starts the season in AAA the production we get from him with the added value from keeping the pick makes more sense than going after either of these guys.

ERA

Gausman 3.97 (Steamer) 3.94 (Oliver) Santana 3.95 (Steamer) 3.90 (Oliver) Jimenez 4.02 (Steamer) 4.43 (Oliver)

FIP

Gausman 3.77 (Steamer) 3.98 (Oliver) Santana 3.71 (Steamer) 4.59 (Oliver) Jimenez 3.79 (Steamer) 4.04 (Oliver)

WAR

Gausman

2.2 (Steamer) 144 projected innings 1.0 (Oliver) 112 projected innings

Santana

2.7 (Steamer) 192 projected innings 1.4 (Oliver) 202 projected innings

Jimenez

2.5 (Steamer) 192 projected innings 1.8 (Oliver) 183 projected innings

Obviously the biggest difference in production comes from innings pitched, but the other than that I don't get it. Neither of these guys are difference makers.