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I don't ever want to see TJ McFarland in an Orioles uniform again


Three Run Homer

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Others have pointed out that McFarland is usually a pretty good long man overall, but that he is very bad with inherited runners.

So without looking it up (his splits of innings with inherited runners vs. his splits of innings that he starts clean), perhaps he is a long man that should never come into a game with baserunners on.

If that is indeed the case, then I would rather accept that handicap (not being bale to bring him into a game unless it's a new inning, and/or if there are no baserunners), than continually try to force situations on him that we know that he is historically bad in.

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I'll buy into that analysis. His K rate especially seems pretty stable at over 9 K/9 vs LHP and less than 6 K/9 vs RHP. He's a lefty though so that only makes sense.

What are his xFIP splits from 2011-2014? That data seems missing in this comparison. Also, how does that split compare to say Brian Matusz, our current LOOGY?

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Remember that TJ wasn't even on the OD roster. He's here because others like Stinson didn't get the job done in long relief. He's not ideal for that role, but someone has to do it. It seems like Bach may be gradually slotting into that role now.

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Remember that TJ wasn't even on the OD roster. He's here because others like Stinson didn't get the job done in long relief. He's not ideal for that role, but someone has to do it. It seems like Bach may be gradually slotting into that role now.

This guy?

[video=youtube_share;hPnzUmkGqvM]

Because he's a heckuva composer but I couldn't find any mention of him in bbRef.

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I'd say what McFarland did today pretty much meets the textbook definition of a long man. He did us a huge service today. We could have wrecked our bullpen getting through this game, but instead used only two of our seven guys.

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I'd say what McFarland did today pretty much meets the textbook definition of a long man. He did us a huge service today. We could have wrecked our bullpen getting through this game, but instead used only two of our seven guys.

Yeah him and Brach did a good job there. Brach was not effective but he really wasn't in a good situation after having to do the same thing again.

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I'd say what McFarland did today pretty much meets the textbook definition of a long man. He did us a huge service today. We could have wrecked our bullpen getting through this game, but instead used only two of our seven guys.

Yep. Definitely a long man. Could have put up zeroes with a third baseman.

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One of the things I think Buck does most effectively as a manager is find situations in which to place players that help them to succeed. Whether it's protecting hitters from specialist relievers by alternating L/R in the order or his approach to protecting relievers' arms by not getting them up on a whim, he generally seems to go out of his way to put his guys in situations that favor them.

I think he's failed in this respect with TJ McFarland, though. Since he's been with us, TJ has been used as a long man --- he was a starter in the minors with Cleveland, and they've kept him somewhat stretched out since he arrived here, so in some ways it stands to reason. However, it ignores the fact that TJ is substantially better against LHBs than he is against RHBs:

MLB (2013-14) vs. LHBs: 9.17 K/9, 1.73 BB/9, 5.3 K/BB, 57.3 GB%, 2.61 xFIP

MLB (2013-14) vs. RHBs: 5.11 K/9, 4.74 BB/9, 1.1 K/BB, 55.1 GB%, 4.78 xFIP

MiLB (2011-14) vs. LHBs: 9.33 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 3.8 K/BB

MiLB (2011-14) vs. RHBs: 5.68 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 1.8 K/BB

That 2.61 xFIP against LHBs over the past two seasons? It ranks 14th amongst ALL relievers in baseball. When it comes to performance against LHBs, TJ slots in right behind some of the absolute elite RPs in the game (Robertson, Koji, Kimbrel, Holland) and some of the best lefty relievers out there right now (Brett Cecil, Paco Rodriguez, Javier Lopez). His overall ERA (3.47) and FIP (3.46) against LHBs aren't quite as shiny --- but that's largely due to a whopping 20.0% HR/FB rate, one that doesn't appear likely to be sustainable.

It seems fairly clear that, at this point, he can't get RHB batters out at the ML level. But it also seems that he's extremely tough on LHBs, to the point that in his short ML career, he's already been one of the best lefty-killing RPs in the league.

So why are we still deploying him like he's a long man or a spot starter? Take him for what he is. He's a LOOGY. Yes, that means he and Matusz are essentially entirely redundant. But if TJ's going to be on the team, that's the role he should play --- locking down tough LHBs and being spared from ever facing tough RHBs. He could be excellent in that role. Continuing to treat him like a long man is wasting everyone's time and wasting a significant skill set that TJ possesses.

Why not give meaningful stats like obp, slugging and ops against? What do I care how many guys he strikes out per 9 innings.

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