Orioles "Appear to be the Leading team of interest" to Get Samardzija

[Tx Oriole]

Gausman Berry and 1 more i would do that. I've seen enough of Gausman to know he wont cut it in the AL East.

You couldn't possibly have seen enough of him. Has he even pitched a complete

season in Majors? I didn't think he had. IMO

[Enjoy Terror]

I hope he is still with the O's. Jeff S is pitching in the National League Central.

How well would he do in the American League East? I don't think he would do as

well. So no he would not be worth Kevin plus Bundy and Harvey. IMO

People who think the AL East is still a hitting powerhouse that demolishes pitching careers should reconsider whether that's still accurate.

[weams]

See: Tillman, Chris

He took a long time to get where he is, as staff ace. I didn't think he'd be able to do it for similar reasons you don't think much of Gausman. Some guys just aren't immediate impact guys.

Gausman has obvious tremendous talent and he will be amazing for whatever team he plays for in a year or two.

2008 23 CHC NL 1 0 1.000 2.28 26 0 6 0 0 1 27.2 24 12 7 0 15 2 25 1 0 2 124 202 3.06 1.410 7.8 0.0 4.9 8.1 1.67

2009 24 CHC NL 1 3 .250 7.53 20 2 7 0 0 0 34.2 46 29 29 7 15 1 21 1 0 2 161 60 5.90 1.760 11.9 1.8 3.9 5.5 1.40

2010 25 CHC NL 2 2 .500 8.38 7 3 0 0 0 0 19.1 21 22 18 4 20 1 9 2 0 1 100 51 8.25 2.121 9.8 1.9 9.3 4.2 0.45

2011 26 CHC NL 8 4 .667 2.97 75 0 18 0 0 0 88.0 64 35 29 5 50 3 87 5 0 8 380 132 3.66 1.295 6.5 0.5 5.1 8.9 1.74

2012 27 CHC NL 9 13 .409 3.81 28 28 0 1 0 0 174.2 157 79 74 20 56 2 180 4 0 10 723 107 3.55 1.219 8.1 1.0 2.9 9.3 3.21

2013 28 CHC NL 8 13 .381 4.34 33 33 0 2 1 0 213.2 210 109 103 25 78 3 214 8 0 11 914 91 3.77 1.348 8.8 1.1 3.3 9.0 2.74

Isn't Gausman Jeff Samardzija? Kinda?

[Jonesy10]

I keep thinking of the Gnats shutting down Strasburg when they had a shot to go deep in the playoffs. Since then they're chances haven't been so good. This season is a great opportunity for the O's and it's not likely to get better after 2015 no matter how good Bundy, and Gausman become. It's a gamble but sometimes you have to take the bull by the horns. Maybe Samardzija isn't enough to put us over the top, but what we have now is surely not going to get it done. Trade Bundy and EdRod for Samardzija and bring up Gausman after the ASB. That might be enough.

I agree with this. But I may want to wait until July 1st. See if Samardzija's ERA gets higher to push his stock down a little. And also to see how the Orioles are playing. If Tillman/Ubaldo/Chen are still pitching poorly getting Samardzija wouldn't push tem over the top. It would just make them a 85 win team most likely. But if those 3 turn it around, maybe Wieters gets back, and our offense keeps rolling then it might be smart to go get him as well as another hitter.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Up to now, they haven't diverged from the rule very often...and the last few O's administrations have not diverged from it at all. If they make an exception for Samardzija, I won't cry foul until I see the whole deal (e.g., something like Bundy AND Gausman would be a non-starter for me, but Gausman and a couple of lower-than-Hunter/ERod level prospects might be acceptable).

This is where I'm at, and i personally prefer Bundy over Gausman at this point.

[Can_of_corn]

Baseball America stated that 46 players have been identified as having had a second TJ surgery; ten are still in recovery, 26 are back in the majors, and seven did not make it back. The other three were position players.

That's a 76.7% success rate, and includes Shawn Kelley, Joakim Soria, Brian Wilson, and Chris Capuano. In all four cases, their velocities have returned to pre surgery levels.

Jason Isringhausen is a three time TJ surgery survivor.

The numbers I have heard cited are not as optimistic. Still 77 is a significant drop from the 90% you see from a first time surgery.

[LookitsPuck]

Jeff Samardzija's numbers prior to 2014:

2012-2013 with the Cubs as a starter (prior he was mostly a reliever):

4.10 ERA

388 1/3 IP

61 games

6 1/3 IP average

9.1 SO/9

3.1 BB/9

8.5 H/9

1.290 WHIP

97 ERA+

Yes, he's having a great 2014:

1.68 ERA

75 IP

11 games

~7 IP average

7.7 SO/9

2.5 BB/9

7.1 H/9

1.067 WHIP

But we're talking about a guy who is pitching in the NL Central, is only on his 3rd year as a starter, and is 29 years old.

We're basically trading for 1 1/2 years (he'll be a free agent in 2016).

I'm not as high on Samardzija as some people. I'm not so sure how I feel about trading a Gausman/Bundy + other(s) for him. I'd largely be opposed to it, honestly. I like him as a pitcher, but I don't think he'd thrive in the American League.

[foxfield]

I will say this. I trust DD to make a move to make this club better and I would include making a rare deal involving one of our supposed high potential arms. However, I would be shocked if he made that decision for Samardzija's arm. He has a very low era this year. His record this year and his past numbers suggest he is just an ok pitcher who someone is going to spend an awful lot on.

I think until we are ready to buy the best arms in the league, it should be rare that we give one away for a rental.

[Stotle]

I don't want anything to do with giving up a ton of top-shelf talent for the pleasure of negotiating a 9-figure contract based on a great two-month stretch.

You trade for however much of a guy is left on his current contract and no more. If the O's really think Samardzija is an ace, then make an offer for 1.5 years of an ace, with a microscopic little bump for the exclusive negotiating rights.

Just one real world consideration -- including the extension helps show your younger players you aren't punting the future on a 1.5 year rental. For guys like Machado, that might be considering an extension in the next 12 months or so, it isn't a non-issue. But I generally don't disagree with anything you're saying.

[MrOrange82]

This is where I'm at, and i personally prefer Bundy over Gausman at this point.

I've never been that high on Gausman, and his control issues this year haven't helped. Then again, I wasn't exactly thrilled to see the O's draft a guy who ate four mini powdered sugar donuts between every inning he pitched...so maybe he's just always been in my subconscious doghouse

[joedogg9999]

Jeff Samardzija's numbers prior to 2014:

2012-2013 with the Cubs as a starter (prior he was mostly a reliever):

4.10 ERA

388 1/3 IP

61 games

6 1/3 IP average

9.1 SO/9

3.1 BB/9

8.5 H/9

1.290 WHIP

97 ERA+

Yes, he's having a great 2014:

1.68 ERA

75 IP

11 games

~7 IP average

7.7 SO/9

2.5 BB/9

7.1 H/9

1.067 WHIP

But we're talking about a guy who is pitching in the NL Central, is only on his 3rd year as a starter, and is 29 years old.

We're basically trading for 1 1/2 years (he'll be a free agent in 2016).

I'm not as high on Samardzija as some people. I'm not so sure how I feel about trading a Gausman/Bundy + other(s) for him. I'd largely be opposed to it, honestly. I like him as a pitcher, but I don't think he'd thrive in the American League.

Despite being the prospects they are, its a LONG shot that they ever amount to a #3 starter, and an even far longer shot that they ever, in their entire careers, put up the type of performance Jeff S is right now.

look at the history of top pitching prospects. Not just with the Orioles. Its a rare occurance that they actually pan out to anything on Jeff S' level. Im not saying Jeff is an ace, but thats my point. We cant expect, let alone assume, that either Gausman or Bundy will ever amount to anything more than a 4.00 era #3 type starter. Sure, they have tons of promise, but realistically speaking, its unlikely. You take proven commodity over potential any day unless that potential is as close to a sure thing as you can get, and neither bundy or gausman are even close to that.

[LookitsPuck]

I just want to reiterate this: from 2012-2013 Samardzija had an ERA+ of 97. He had an ERA+ of 91 in 2013.

Do you really want to give up the farm for someone who has been below average pitching in the NL Central?

[MrOrange82]

I just want to reiterate this: from 2012-2013 Samardzija had an ERA+ of 97. He had an ERA+ of 91 in 2013.

Do you really want to give up the farm for someone who has been below average pitching in the NL Central?

FIP of 3.77 last year, and 3.55 the year before.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I've never been that high on Gausman, and his control issues this year haven't helped. Then again, I wasn't exactly thrilled to see the O's draft a guy who ate four mini powdered sugar donuts between every inning he pitched...so maybe he's just always been in my subconscious doghouse

Same. I advocated Gausman for closer this year.

It just seems to me that Bundy has more in the way of "pitchability" imo. Gausman has a great changeup, but the slider is unimpressive and he appears to rely heavily on precisely locating a fairly flat 4 seam fastball at the bottom of the zone. I know there's great potential there, I'm just not that impressed with the overall package I'm seeing right now. I see stotle is online, so he'll probably rip me.

[Tx Oriole]

People who think the AL East is still a hitting powerhouse that demolishes pitching careers should reconsider whether that's still accurate.

His ERA would be higher facing AL hitters. What if the FO makes that deal costing

Gausman, Bundy plus Rodriguez or Harvey and Jeff winds up a number 3/4 in the

rotation? You happy with the deal then? Sorry, I just think that would be a bad

move by the FO. IMO