Orioles "Appear to be the Leading team of interest" to Get Samardzija

[Going Underground]

This. Gonzo has a better ERA than Tillman since the start of last season, I believe. He's been a very good pitcher for the O's since 2012 and comes to pitch in big games. He had a rough April but his ERA in May is 3.51. Replacing him with Samardzija may end up not being an upgrade at all in the ERA department. Samardzija will throw more innings but that's not worth 2 top pitching prospects. If they're going to replace Gonzo, then it should be a Lee/Shields type pitcher. A true ace.

The bottom line, IMO, is that we don't need more SP's if our 2 best pitchers pitch like our 2 best pitchers. I'm looking at you Tillman and Jimenez. If they don't turn it around, and even if they do, replacing Samardzija with Gonzo just isn't that big of an upgrade.

Just my 2 cents.

Lee is on the DL. Flexor strain,the Phillies hope nothing major. I would not give up the farm for Lee either.

[scOtt]

Or maybe we are just trying to drive up the price on other teams....

In free agency that can work. Much harder in the trade market imo.

Still, to do that just to raise the price for another team just seems like a waste of DD's limited time to me.

[Ohfan67]

FIP of 3.77 last year, and 3.55 the year before.

That means that Samardzija was the 45th best starting pitcher in 2013 and the 33rd best in 2012. He was good, but not good enough for two major prospects IMO. I would offer Erod and something lesser. No Bundy, no Gausman IMO. And I don't think DD will give up Gausman right now. I think the O's are planning to put him into the rotation pretty soon. DD will try to drive a hard bargain and will, I think, walk away without overpaying.

[Jonesy10]

Here something else I think is interesting. Say you think Gonzo ends up with a 4 ERA in 170 innings this season. That means he'd pitch to an ERA of 3.83 the rest of the year. Lower that 4 ERA to 3.80 (he had a 3.78 ERA last season) and that has him pitching to a 3.53 ERA the rest of the season.

Say you see Samardzija finishing with a 3.20 ERA this season in 220 innings. That means he would pitch to an ERA of 3.97 the rest of the season.

Nothing is for certain, but I think Gonzo is due to pitch better and Samardzija is due for some regression in the ERA department. I think this is something that needs to be thought about.

[LookitsPuck]

In that time frame he had 36 QS in 60 GS and was 6.4 IP/GS. We rarely loose when we get a QS.

Are you so sure those would continue to be QS's in the AL? I'm thinking he'd be more like a 5 2/3 IP kind of guy. Exactly the kind of pitcher we DON'T want. Not for the talent you have to give up.

[El Gordo]

Are you so sure those would continue to be QS's in the AL? I'm thinking he'd be more like a 5 2/3 IP kind of guy. Exactly the kind of pitcher we DON'T want. Not for the talent you have to give up.

Pretty confident. He gives you innings. Too much emphasis on ERA IMO. A guy could have 30 QS and have an ERA around 4.50 and help the team if he averages 6+ IP/GS.

[El Gordo]

How about EdRod and Wright for Hammel?

[MrOrange82]

No disrespect intended but..

Don't care!

I'm 100% desperate!

The Jays will steamroll this division unless we improve our pitching. Despite what some think, we CAN be a playoff team this year. The AL East stinks.

That...doesn't really help the argument.

[MrOrange82]

He wasn't right in early April and then had to throw on short rest in his call up. Last four Triple A starts he's been fine.

20.2 IP

15 H (5 XBH, 1 HR)

4 R

7 BB

24 SO

Still walking slightly more than three batters per nine in the minors, which I'm not fond of. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't his pitch counts been fairly high for the number of innings he's thrown each start (IIRC, it took 93 pitches for him to get through his 6.1 inning, high water mark start).

I haven't seen his starts, so I don't know what to make of his numbers, exactly. He's limiting MiL hits, but is that a product of solid command and advancing secondaries, or is he simply overmatching MiL hitters with stuff that's mostly plateaued? Is he wild in the strike zone, or is he locating for the most part? I'm glad to see that his recent starts have been better, but those numbers alone don't really tell the story, IMO, that spells the difference between "future O's starter" and "trade bait."

[scOtt]

No disrespect intended but..

Don't care!

I'm 100% desperate!

The Jays will steamroll this division unless we improve our pitching. Despite what some think, we CAN be a playoff team this year. The AL East stinks.

I agree the Jays COULD steamroll us if they get him. I prefer to take that chance than give up 6 years of control of TWO of out best pitching prospects. I know TINSTAAPP but I'll take the chance. And I don't think JS puts us in the playoffs. Not even close. Only slightly better than rearranging deck chairs.

[Yardball85]

As previously stated by some, I don't think 1.5 years of Samardizja is worth a high-end prospect. If he were a true ace, then maybe. That would mean I would rather build a package around Erod and throw in some other guys.

Any chance the Cubs would consider Erod, Ohlman, Berry, and Wright? Its too bad Ohlman is having a down year but maybe they will see him for his previous years as well.

[Old#5fan]

He reminds me a lot of Kevin Brown. I just don't see him getting there anytime soon, if ever.

He doesn't remind me of him at all. Didn't Brown through a really heavy sinker? Gausman doesn't even throw a sinker. At any rate, I don't see Gausman being even as good as Brown potentially.

[Old#5fan]

Put me in the camp that's not overly impressed with Gausman. I just don't think he is going to be a TOR pitcher in the AL. Don't see it. And the fact that he's mostly a two pitch pitcher bothers me. Gausman, ERod, and Wright with some filler is fine with me.

I am totally on board with that offer and would jump on it.

[Jonesy10]

If Tillman had a 3.80 ERA, Jimenez and Gonzalez had a 3.90 ERA, and Chen had a 4.03 ERA (which are completely realistic expectations), the starters would have a solid 3.85 ERA right now and the team ERA would be 3.74, good enough for 5th in the AL.

I believe the team has the internal options to improve the pitching. These guys are going to pitch better. And the marginal upgrade, if at all, from Gonzo to Samardzija isn't worth what would be going the other way. Not even close.

[Norfolk orioles]

One thing I'd like to add here........

If we traded for Samardzija, you have to figure that right now, we might be getting DOUBLE the value in so far as, not only are we adding a quality piece to our team, but we are also preventing the Yankees or blue jays from adding a quality starting pitcher to their rotations.

Either of those teams is a very likely destination for him. Preventing them from getting him and giving up prospects who may never actually pan out in the majors could end up being a huge boost for this teams future.

It costs prospects to trade for impact players. Frankly, I'd be fine with shipping off Gausman and e rod, I'm not sure either of them will ever have a quality enough third pitch to be a consistent, front like starter in the majors. Gausman's conditioning is also a major concern.

Frankly, I'd be fine with trading them and then giving Britton another chance at starting next year and moving Chen to the bullpen. Regardless, I am definitely in favor of going for it now while we have Cruz, Davis, wieters and hardy because two years from now this team could look very different and not for the better.

Go for it while you have the chance in the al least. Still disappointed we didn't sign Santana though if we really are going all in.