Orioles "Appear to be the Leading team of interest" to Get Samardzija

[Can_of_corn]

Damaged goods? All these guys getting TJ surgery today are coming back strong and as good as ever.

You are aware that the rate of second TJ surgeries is way up right?

It used to be a given that you could get at least seven years out of a repaired arm, that isn't the case anymore.

The results after a second surgery are no where near as rosy as after the first.

A case could be made that Bundy is at a high risk for needing a second surgery before his six years of team control are over.

[Old#5fan]

I'll 2nd that trading that talent away for Samardzija DOES not make this a LOCK down play off team

I agree, but the Orioles will be extremely lucky if one of the pitching prospects in this discussion ever turn out to be even a number 2 starter, and that includes Gausman, Bundy, Rodriguez and Harvey. The only one of the so called Cavalry to amount to anything as far as a starting pitcher is Tillman.

[Shabadoo25]

I'd have no problem giving them Ubaldo and Reimold.

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[maybenxtyr]

If you're going with the expectation that the O's can never develop pitching then you've basically given up. This team doesn't have half the resources to compete in the AL East if they always are looking to deal high-end prospects for mid-range MLB talent.

I have not given up on developing pitching talent. I think it is absolutely what they should be doing. They have made some investments on this years team, and I think they should roll with what they have. It is never a good business model to throw good money after bad. I'd rather see them target Jason Hammel or someone along those lines.

[ExileAngelos]

I'd have no problem giving them Ubaldo and Reimold.

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I'm sure that would get it done. A pitcher who has no command of his stuff and an outfielder that will probably never see another 50 games in the big leagues.

[Shabadoo25]

I'm sure that would get it done. A pitcher who has no command of his stuff and an outfielder that will probably never see another 50 games in the big leagues.

You'd never make it as a car salesman with that attitude!

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[DrungoHazewood]

Always, or ever? I'm not saying that I think the O's should be all-in on Samardzija, but your post makes it sound like the team has a history of trading its top pitching prospects. It really doesn't.

I think as a general rule the O's should avoid trading prospects for veterans, especially high-ceiling prospects. They can pull that off once in a while if they're lucky, but it will quickly destroy the budget.

As this discussion shows you're often trading six+ years of a top prospect or prospects for a year or two of a guy who just happens to be pretty good and available right now. That's the way Glenn Davis happened. Or young Chris Hoiles for old Fred Lynn. Even in a decent hindsight trade you might end up trading John Smoltz for a short burst of Doyle Alexander. Or Bedard for Jones, Tillman, et al.

[Enjoy Terror]

You are aware that the rate of second TJ surgeries is way up right?

It used to be a given that you could get at least seven years out of a repaired arm, that isn't the case anymore.

The results after a second surgery are no where near as rosy as after the first.

A case could be made that Bundy is at a high risk for needing a second surgery before his six years of team control are over.

Baseball America stated that 46 players have been identified as having had a second TJ surgery; ten are still in recovery, 26 are back in the majors, and seven did not make it back. The other three were position players.

That's a 76.7% success rate, and includes Shawn Kelley, Joakim Soria, Brian Wilson, and Chris Capuano. In all four cases, their velocities have returned to pre surgery levels.

Jason Isringhausen is a three time TJ surgery survivor.

[Tx Oriole]

See: Tillman, Chris

He took a long time to get where he is, as staff ace. I didn't think he'd be able to do it for similar reasons you don't think much of Gausman. Some guys just aren't immediate impact guys.

Gausman has obvious tremendous talent and he will be amazing for whatever team he plays for in a year or two.

I hope he is still with the O's. Jeff S is pitching in the National League Central.

How well would he do in the American League East? I don't think he would do as

well. So no he would not be worth Kevin plus Bundy and Harvey. IMO

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm fine giving up one of those three, preferably Harvey.

I'm already weeping thinking that if Arrieta and Strop can pitch in the AL Central, imagine what an up-and-coming top starter like Bundy, Gausman, or Harvey might do. I'm getting the Glenn Davis shakes.

[ExileAngelos]

You'd never make it as a car salesman with that attitude!

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OK how about a former all star pitcher who has had only one bad year in his career and is traditionally a slow starter and an outfielder who has all the tools and who has shown he can play but has had a few bad luck injuries?

[Shabadoo25]

OK how about a former all star pitcher who has had only one bad year in his career and is traditionally a slow starter and an outfielder who has all the tools and who has shown he can play but has had a few bad luck injuries?

Much better effort!

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[MrOrange82]

I think as a general rule the O's should avoid trading prospects for veterans, especially high-ceiling prospects. They can pull that off once in a while if they're lucky, but it will quickly destroy the budget.

As this discussion shows you're often trading six+ years of a top prospect or prospects for a year or two of a guy who just happens to be pretty good and available right now. That's the way Glenn Davis happened. Or young Chris Hoiles for old Fred Lynn. Even in a decent hindsight trade you might end up trading John Smoltz for a short burst of Doyle Alexander. Or Bedard for Jones, Tillman, et al.

I think you've outlined the debate. And I agree, as a general rule, the O's shouldn't trade their best prospects for about-to-be-expensive and/or FA veterans. That said, depending upon how they appraise their current crop of MiL pitchers, combined with how they assess their playoff prospects, diverging from the rule every once in a rare while won't doom the franchise.

Up to now, they haven't diverged from the rule very often...and the last few O's administrations have not diverged from it at all. If they make an exception for Samardzija, I won't cry foul until I see the whole deal (e.g., something like Bundy AND Gausman would be a non-starter for me, but Gausman and a couple of lower-than-Hunter/ERod level prospects might be acceptable).

[El Gordo]

I keep thinking of the Gnats shutting down Strasburg when they had a shot to go deep in the playoffs. Since then they're chances haven't been so good. This season is a great opportunity for the O's and it's not likely to get better after 2015 no matter how good Bundy, and Gausman become. It's a gamble but sometimes you have to take the bull by the horns. Maybe Samardzija isn't enough to put us over the top, but what we have now is surely not going to get it done. Trade Bundy and EdRod for Samardzija and bring up Gausman after the ASB. That might be enough.

[weams]

Very tempting. Still, I look at his K/9 going down to 7.7 this year and I have to think that 1.68 ERA is deceptive for a guy with career ERA 3.90. Could turn out to be another Scott Feldman - might bring a couple additional wins over what we have, but still not quite the legit "ace" that we really need. We got Feldman for Arrieta and Strop, neither of whom are in the league of Gausman/Bundy.

For two years of Cliff Lee on the other hand...

Isn't Cliff Lee getting ready for the surgery?