3/33 extension: Hardy or Markakis

[Singleton]

I'm tired of people assuming that Manny's value to the team would be just as high at short. I don't see why the O's couldn't find another decent shortstop.

I'm not sure you can find someone whose bat is better than Manny's at third. I think it's pretty likely he gets dramatically better with the bat over the next few years.

And it's not like some video game where you just plug in anybody you want. You may think Manny has the ability to be the best defensive shortstop in the game, but he really is the best, or at least one of the very best, defensive third basemen in the game. This isn't some nutty Tim Tebow thing where he fails at QB and you slide him over to TE to try to get something out of him, this is a guy who already has a ton of value at third. The positional difference between third and short is only, what, five runs? If Manny is just a "reasonably good" defensive shortstop, but he's a +15 or +20 third baseman he'll be less valuable to the O's at shortstop.

There's a lot of good stuff in what you say here but I think it's inaccurate to call Manny moving to short some "nutty Tim Tebow thing" where he moves to TE. Manny played his whole minor league career at short and got good reviews. It's also worth considering that Hardy's D will almost surely get significantly worse during the next 3 years so we really shouldn't be considering 2015 Manny vs 2012 Hardy. I'm not wild about giving a 32 yo shortstop (in a few weeks) a 3 year deal. I think we have enough data to know it is unlikely to go well for us.

[DrungoHazewood]

There's a lot of good stuff in what you say here but I think it's inaccurate to call Manny moving to short some "nutty Tim Tebow thing" where he moves to TE. Manny played his whole minor league career at short and got good reviews. It's also worth considering that Hardy's D will almost surely get significantly worse during the next 3 years so we really shouldn't be considering 2015 Manny vs 2012 Hardy. I'm not wild about giving a 32 yo shortstop (in a few weeks) a 3 year deal. I think we have enough data to know it is unlikely to go well for us.

I think there are options besides those. They can leave Manny at third and find a new shortstop, preferably by trade.

[EagleOriole]

I think there are options besides those. They can leave Manny at third and find a new shortstop, preferably by trade.

I wonder how Didi Gregorius is defensively? He is stuck on the bench in Arizona. As a 24 year old he has a career .704 OPS and I am sure that Arizona could use some pitching. I want to keep JJ Hardy, but if we could find the right package?

[NickM21]

I think what Hardy gives us in terms of his stability both offensively and defensively, not to mention how much he is loved in the clubhouse (it does have some importance) is often overlooked here. There really aren't that many great shortstops out there these days. Hardy shouldn't be that expensive to extend and wants to be here. Sure, his defense will decline, but I'd bet even in his final year of a 3 year contract he's still an above average shortstop in this league.

[weams]

I'm tired of people assuming that Manny's value to the team would be just as high at short. I don't see why the O's couldn't find another decent shortstop.

I'm not sure you can find someone whose bat is better than Manny's at third. I think it's pretty likely he gets dramatically better with the bat over the next few years.

And it's not like some video game where you just plug in anybody you want. You may think Manny has the ability to be the best defensive shortstop in the game, but he really is the best, or at least one of the very best, defensive third basemen in the game. This isn't some nutty Tim Tebow thing where he fails at QB and you slide him over to TE to try to get something out of him, this is a guy who already has a ton of value at third. The positional difference between third and short is only, what, five runs? If Manny is just a "reasonably good" defensive shortstop, but he's a +15 or +20 third baseman he'll be less valuable to the O's at shortstop.

The idea of moving him to short stop is no longer a good one. He is our wonderful third baseman. Find a short stop.

[weams]

I think there are options besides those. They can leave Manny at third and find a new shortstop, preferably by trade.

I think this is the only alternative to resigning Hardy. Unless you think Flaherty is enough.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I think what Hardy gives us in terms of his stability both offensively and defensively, not to mention how much he is loved in the clubhouse (it does have some importance) is often overlooked here. There really aren't that many great shortstops out there these days. Hardy shouldn't be that expensive to extend and wants to be here. Sure, his defense will decline, but I'd bet even in his final year of a 3 year contract he's still an above average shortstop in this league.

These two statements contradict each other.

[UpstateNYfan]

I think Angelos will have a BIG say in NM's future. I don't think he'll let him go. I have no trouble with that other than the difficulty of weaning him from everyday player to more of a platoon type.

I find the 3B, SS argument absurd. The O's currently have platinum, gold glove at those positions. So, many think having a platinum at SS and a ? mark at third acceptable? Ask the pitchers how they feel about that. Plus offense at SS is a luxury. JJ gives enough. In three years Manny will be planning for upcoming free agency. He will go, count on it and the O's should look to trade him at that point.

[EagleOriole]

I think Angelos will have a BIG say in NM's future. I don't think he'll let him go. I have no trouble with that other than the difficulty of weaning him from everyday player to more of a platoon type.

I find the 3B, SS argument absurd. The O's currently have platinum, gold glove at those positions. So, many think having a platinum at SS and a ? mark at third acceptable? Ask the pitchers how they feel about that. Plus offense at SS is a luxury. JJ gives enough. In three years Manny will be planning for upcoming free agency. He will go, count on it and the O's should look to trade him at that point.

We might have won a World Series between now and then. We have a very good squad - why is he a lock to leave?

The Orioles have many, many interesting decisions to make here in the near future:

Hardy, Markakis, Cruz, and Young are set to be free agents.

Wieters and Davis are a year away. Tillman is getting closer...

Add into that the impending starter overload - Tillman, Jimenez, Chen, Norris, Gonzalez, Gausman, and Bundy. How do you sort out that mess for next season - I feel Bundy and Gausman need to be in the rotation at the begining of next year.

Going to be an interesting off-season.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I think Angelos will have a BIG say in NM's future. I don't think he'll let him go. I have no trouble with that other than the difficulty of weaning him from everyday player to more of a platoon type.

How much are you going to give him to platoon?

[BohKnowsBmore]

There's a lot of good stuff in what you say here but I think it's inaccurate to call Manny moving to short some "nutty Tim Tebow thing" where he moves to TE. Manny played his whole minor league career at short and got good reviews. It's also worth considering that Hardy's D will almost surely get significantly worse during the next 3 years so we really shouldn't be considering 2015 Manny vs 2012 Hardy. I'm not wild about giving a 32 yo shortstop (in a few weeks) a 3 year deal. I think we have enough data to know it is unlikely to go well for us.

Can anyone give us info on how past SS's have performed who accumulated at least 25 WAR (either fWAR or rWAR) through their age 31 seasons?

[Reboulet'sStache]

The idea of moving him to short stop is no longer a good one. He is our wonderful third baseman. Find a short stop.

There are currently 11 SS with a positive RngR. 12 with a positive UZR. Saying "Find a shortstop" is like saying, "eh, just go find a number 1 starter."

[tettleton14]

The thing that makes me less worried about Hardy, long-term, is that he was never the type of shortstop that relied on his mobility. The glove, the arm, the hands, the instincts are not going away even if he loses a hair of range.

As far as his hitting, even if he isn't a 25 HR guy, he's showing he's capable of hitting for a good average.

A very-good-hitting, very-good-fielding shortstop is really hard to come by. For that matter, so is an all-world-fielding, good-hitting third baseman. The Orioles currently have both.

Markakis as he currently is is solid, but replaceable IMO. I wouldn't want to see him go, but if I have to choose who's more valuable, I'd go with Hardy by a solid margin.

[DrungoHazewood]

Can anyone give us info on how past SS's have performed who accumulated at least 25 WAR (either fWAR or rWAR) through their age 31 seasons?

Shortstops with OPS+ of 85-105, with at least +25 fielding runs through age 31, with 1000+ games played:

                                                                                                                                                                                       Rk              Player WAR/pos OPS+ Rfield From   To   Age    G   PA   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP SH SF GDP  SB  CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS           Pos              Tm1           Joe Tinker    45.4   93  157.0 1902 1912 21-31 1532 6141 5544  670 1438 220  93  28 670     344 464   8       245     304 .259 .304 .348 .651         *6/59             CHC2        Pee Wee Reese    37.7  101   78.0 1940 1950 21-31 1128 4954 4203  706 1119 174  40  63 460     672 475  12    67  60     125 .266 .369 .372 .741         *6/H5             BRO3        Jimmy Rollins    36.8   97   66.5 2000 2010 21-31 1494 6906 6291  993 1714 366  98 154 662 510  37 797  33 33 39  86 343  70 .272 .328 .435 .764         *6/H4             PHI4      Bert Campaneris    36.0   92   40.7 1964 1973 22-31 1375 6089 5608  770 1457 223  58  63 390 344  10 701  45 62 30  58 454 118 .260 .306 .354 .660 *6/7H5839214D         KCA-OAK5    Rabbit Maranville    35.3   92   82.0 1912 1923 20-31 1496 6464 5793  727 1525 203 108  23 521     475 475  23       175 220  93 .263 .322 .347 .669         *6/4H         BSN-PIT6       Tony Fernandez    34.6  100   42.5 1983 1993 21-31 1470 6230 5658  740 1612 274  81  53 543 452  20 525  31 50 39 107 202 101 .285 .339 .390 .729        *6/H5D     TOR-SDP-NYM7        Dave Bancroft    34.0  102   87.0 1915 1922 24-31 1098 4834 4222  648 1168 185  47  24 320     467 321  16       123 104  60 .277 .351 .360 .711        *6/H47         PHI-NYG8    Roger Peckinpaugh    33.8   88   70.0 1910 1922 19-31 1453 6171 5356  752 1361 192  58  39 503     580 554  20       222 168  53 .254 .329 .333 .663          *6/H     CLE-NYY-WSH9        Rafael Furcal    33.2   96   72.0 2000 2009 22-31 1300 5872 5249  880 1493 255  58  92 465 529  18 747  16 45 32  68 271  81 .284 .350 .408 .758         *6/H4         ATL-LAD10        Dick Bartell    33.1   97   45.0 1927 1939 19-31 1574 6894 6061  909 1759 373  65  57 569     527 482  72   238  66      82 .290 .354 .401 .755        *64/H5 PIT-PHI-NYG-CHC11     Dave Concepcion    29.9   93   55.7 1970 1979 22-31 1349 5195 4702  572 1268 201  31  70 529 387  58 647  16 48 42 133 220  62 .270 .325 .370 .695       *6/H548             CIN12         Herman Long    27.2  105   26.0 1889 1897 23-31 1111 5270 4747 1065 1411 232  69  62 647     416 279  49        58     413 .297 .360 .414 .774       *6/7485         KCC-BSN13     Garry Templeton    26.8   90   25.7 1976 1987 20-31 1571 6446 6072  745 1691 253  91  49 567 298 112 865   9 34 33 119 229 118 .278 .312 .374 .686          *6/H         STL-SDP14        Glenn Wright    25.7  101   77.0 1924 1932 23-31 1039 4246 3936  564 1167 189  76  93 704     198 377   4       108  37  13 .296 .331 .454 .785       *6/H395         PIT-BRO15          J.J. Hardy    25.4   96   74.0 2005 2014 22-31 1199 4930 4518  580 1182 224  13 161 553 337  22 705  11 36 28 118   8   8 .262 .313 .424 .736          *6/H     MIL-MIN-BAL16          Ron Hansen    24.1   93   88.5 1958 1969 20-31 1248 4659 4045  425  946 149  17 100 465 520  46 601  18 38 35 134   9  13 .234 .321 .353 .675       *6/H543     BAL-CHW-WSA17        Leo Cardenas    22.8   90   30.9 1960 1970 21-31 1477 5750 5213  549 1365 240  43  93 548 407 112 925  25 69 36 136  33  39 .262 .316 .378 .694          *6/H         CIN-MIN18       Rick Burleson    22.7   87   59.6 1974 1982 23-31 1151 5034 4539  571 1247 221  22  43 395 358  10 401  24 69 44 124  71  61 .275 .328 .362 .690        *6/4H5         BOS-CAL19          Dick Groat    22.3   89   29.8 1952 1962 21-31 1258 5375 4950  554 1435 226  40  30 454 284  25 313  19 92 30 153   6  21 .290 .329 .370 .699         *6/H5             PIT20     Orlando Cabrera    15.4   85   27.7 1997 2006 22-31 1256 5102 4663  605 1254 306  27  89 541 333  24 429  20 39 47 115 145  35 .269 .317 .403 .721         *6/4H     MON-BOS-LAA

That list of players from age 32-on:

                                                                                                                                                                               Rk              Player WAR/pos From   To   Age    G   PA   AB   R    H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH SF GDP  SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS      Pos                          Tm1        Pee Wee Reese    28.6 1951 1958 32-39 1038 4516 3855 632 1051 156 40 63 425 538   3 415  14  90 19 116 107 45 .273 .362 .383 .745    *65/H                     BRO-LAD2      Bert Campaneris    17.0 1974 1983 32-41  953 3536 3076 411  792  90 28 16 256 274   5 441  19 137 30  48 195 81 .257 .319 .321 .640  *6/5H4D             OAK-TEX-CAL-NYY3        Dave Bancroft    14.5 1923 1930 32-39  815 3415 2960 400  836 135 30  8 271     360 166   7         89  41 15 .282 .362 .356 .718   *6/H45                 NYG-BSN-BRO4           Dick Groat    14.4 1963 1967 32-36  671 2804 2534 275  703 126 27  9 253 206  14 199  12  30 22  67   8  6 .277 .332 .359 .691  *6/H543                 STL-PHI-SFG5    Roger Peckinpaugh    11.2 1923 1927 32-36  559 2210 1877 254  515  64 17  9 236     234 116   2         92  37 21 .274 .355 .341 .696    *6/H3                     WSH-CHW6       Tony Fernandez    10.5 1994 2001 32-39  688 2563 2253 317  664 140 11 41 301 238  28 259  33  17 22  54  44 37 .295 .367 .421 .788   546/HD         CIN-NYY-CLE-MIL-TOR7      Dave Concepcion     9.9 1980 1988 32-40 1139 4446 4021 421 1058 188 17 31 421 349  35 539   5  26 44 133 101 47 .263 .320 .341 .661 *64/5H31                         CIN8          Herman Long     9.8 1898 1904 32-38  764 3235 2931 391  718 110 28 29 408     196 183   8        100    124 .245 .294 .331 .625    *6/43             BSN-NYY-DET-PHI9           Joe Tinker     7.8 1913 1916 32-35  274 1012  897 104  252  43 21  3 113      72  62   2         40  32 12 .281 .336 .386 .721   *6/54H                 CIN-CHI-CHC10   Rabbit Maranville     7.5 1924 1935 32-43 1174 4790 4285 528 1080 177 69  5 363     364 281  16    125  21  71 19 .252 .313 .329 .642   *64/H5         PIT-CHC-BRO-STL-BSN11        Dick Bartell     7.1 1940 1946 32-38  442 1846 1568 221  406  69  6 22 141     221 145  25     31  36  27  3 .259 .359 .353 .712   *65/H4                     DET-NYG12       Jimmy Rollins     6.6 2011 2014 32-35  544 2373 2128 294  540 105 11 53 202 221  14 308   5   7 12  34  99 24 .254 .324 .388 .712    *6/HD                         PHI13     Orlando Cabrera     6.0 2007 2011 32-36  729 3153 2899 380  801 153  5 34 313 181   2 316  12  18 43  73  71 22 .276 .317 .368 .685  *6/4HD5 LAA-CHW-MIN-OAK-CIN-CLE-SFG14       Rafael Furcal     5.8 2010 2014 32-36  314 1365 1228 183  324  56 11 21 122 114   6 163   6  10  7  16  43 13 .264 .328 .379 .706    *6/H4                 LAD-STL-MIA15        Leo Cardenas     4.5 1971 1975 32-36  464 1652 1494 113  360  45  6 25 141 115  10 210   3  28 12  38   6  9 .241 .294 .329 .624  *6/5HD4             MIN-CAL-CLE-TEX16     Garry Templeton     0.8 1988 1991 32-35  508 1762 1649 148  405  76 15 21 161  77  32 227   0  23 13  48  13 11 .246 .277 .348 .625  *6/H359                     SDP-NYM17       Rick Burleson    -0.0 1983 1987 32-36  195  683  600  85  154  35  1  7  54  62   1  76   4  15  2  14   1  7 .257 .329 .353 .683   /64DH5                     CAL-BAL18          Ron Hansen     0.0 1970 1972 32-34  136  305  266  21   61   7  0  6  36  31   3  42   1   1  6   7   0  1 .229 .306 .323 .629   /*H564                     NYY-KCR19        Glenn Wright    -0.5 1933 1935 32-34   80  234  217  20   52  14  0  1  19      11  30   1      5   9   1  0 .240 .279 .318 .597  /*6H345                     BRO-CHW

Looks like about half of the list would have provided 6+ wins of value from 32-on, and most of that value is in the next three years. So using these comps you'd guess that Hardy has maybe a 50/50 chance of being worth a 3/30 deal, and maybe a 25% chance (each) of being a good value or a total bust. Hardy is on the low side of the original list, so maybe knock those numbers down a bit.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Shortstops with OPS+ of 85-105, with at least +25 fielding runs through age 31, with 1000+ games played:

                                                                                                                                                                                       Rk              Player WAR/pos OPS+ Rfield From   To   Age    G   PA   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP SH SF GDP  SB  CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS           Pos              Tm1           Joe Tinker    45.4   93  157.0 1902 1912 21-31 1532 6141 5544  670 1438 220  93  28 670     344 464   8       245     304 .259 .304 .348 .651         *6/59             CHC2        Pee Wee Reese    37.7  101   78.0 1940 1950 21-31 1128 4954 4203  706 1119 174  40  63 460     672 475  12    67  60     125 .266 .369 .372 .741         *6/H5             BRO3        Jimmy Rollins    36.8   97   66.5 2000 2010 21-31 1494 6906 6291  993 1714 366  98 154 662 510  37 797  33 33 39  86 343  70 .272 .328 .435 .764         *6/H4             PHI4      Bert Campaneris    36.0   92   40.7 1964 1973 22-31 1375 6089 5608  770 1457 223  58  63 390 344  10 701  45 62 30  58 454 118 .260 .306 .354 .660 *6/7H5839214D         KCA-OAK5    Rabbit Maranville    35.3   92   82.0 1912 1923 20-31 1496 6464 5793  727 1525 203 108  23 521     475 475  23       175 220  93 .263 .322 .347 .669         *6/4H         BSN-PIT6       Tony Fernandez    34.6  100   42.5 1983 1993 21-31 1470 6230 5658  740 1612 274  81  53 543 452  20 525  31 50 39 107 202 101 .285 .339 .390 .729        *6/H5D     TOR-SDP-NYM7        Dave Bancroft    34.0  102   87.0 1915 1922 24-31 1098 4834 4222  648 1168 185  47  24 320     467 321  16       123 104  60 .277 .351 .360 .711        *6/H47         PHI-NYG8    Roger Peckinpaugh    33.8   88   70.0 1910 1922 19-31 1453 6171 5356  752 1361 192  58  39 503     580 554  20       222 168  53 .254 .329 .333 .663          *6/H     CLE-NYY-WSH9        Rafael Furcal    33.2   96   72.0 2000 2009 22-31 1300 5872 5249  880 1493 255  58  92 465 529  18 747  16 45 32  68 271  81 .284 .350 .408 .758         *6/H4         ATL-LAD10        Dick Bartell    33.1   97   45.0 1927 1939 19-31 1574 6894 6061  909 1759 373  65  57 569     527 482  72   238  66      82 .290 .354 .401 .755        *64/H5 PIT-PHI-NYG-CHC11     Dave Concepcion    29.9   93   55.7 1970 1979 22-31 1349 5195 4702  572 1268 201  31  70 529 387  58 647  16 48 42 133 220  62 .270 .325 .370 .695       *6/H548             CIN12         Herman Long    27.2  105   26.0 1889 1897 23-31 1111 5270 4747 1065 1411 232  69  62 647     416 279  49        58     413 .297 .360 .414 .774       *6/7485         KCC-BSN13     Garry Templeton    26.8   90   25.7 1976 1987 20-31 1571 6446 6072  745 1691 253  91  49 567 298 112 865   9 34 33 119 229 118 .278 .312 .374 .686          *6/H         STL-SDP14        Glenn Wright    25.7  101   77.0 1924 1932 23-31 1039 4246 3936  564 1167 189  76  93 704     198 377   4       108  37  13 .296 .331 .454 .785       *6/H395         PIT-BRO15          J.J. Hardy    25.4   96   74.0 2005 2014 22-31 1199 4930 4518  580 1182 224  13 161 553 337  22 705  11 36 28 118   8   8 .262 .313 .424 .736          *6/H     MIL-MIN-BAL16          Ron Hansen    24.1   93   88.5 1958 1969 20-31 1248 4659 4045  425  946 149  17 100 465 520  46 601  18 38 35 134   9  13 .234 .321 .353 .675       *6/H543     BAL-CHW-WSA17        Leo Cardenas    22.8   90   30.9 1960 1970 21-31 1477 5750 5213  549 1365 240  43  93 548 407 112 925  25 69 36 136  33  39 .262 .316 .378 .694          *6/H         CIN-MIN18       Rick Burleson    22.7   87   59.6 1974 1982 23-31 1151 5034 4539  571 1247 221  22  43 395 358  10 401  24 69 44 124  71  61 .275 .328 .362 .690        *6/4H5         BOS-CAL19          Dick Groat    22.3   89   29.8 1952 1962 21-31 1258 5375 4950  554 1435 226  40  30 454 284  25 313  19 92 30 153   6  21 .290 .329 .370 .699         *6/H5             PIT20     Orlando Cabrera    15.4   85   27.7 1997 2006 22-31 1256 5102 4663  605 1254 306  27  89 541 333  24 429  20 39 47 115 145  35 .269 .317 .403 .721         *6/4H     MON-BOS-LAA

That list of players from age 32-on:

                                                                                                                                                                               Rk              Player WAR/pos From   To   Age    G   PA   AB   R    H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH SF GDP  SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS      Pos                          Tm1        Pee Wee Reese    28.6 1951 1958 32-39 1038 4516 3855 632 1051 156 40 63 425 538   3 415  14  90 19 116 107 45 .273 .362 .383 .745    *65/H                     BRO-LAD2      Bert Campaneris    17.0 1974 1983 32-41  953 3536 3076 411  792  90 28 16 256 274   5 441  19 137 30  48 195 81 .257 .319 .321 .640  *6/5H4D             OAK-TEX-CAL-NYY3        Dave Bancroft    14.5 1923 1930 32-39  815 3415 2960 400  836 135 30  8 271     360 166   7         89  41 15 .282 .362 .356 .718   *6/H45                 NYG-BSN-BRO4           Dick Groat    14.4 1963 1967 32-36  671 2804 2534 275  703 126 27  9 253 206  14 199  12  30 22  67   8  6 .277 .332 .359 .691  *6/H543                 STL-PHI-SFG5    Roger Peckinpaugh    11.2 1923 1927 32-36  559 2210 1877 254  515  64 17  9 236     234 116   2         92  37 21 .274 .355 .341 .696    *6/H3                     WSH-CHW6       Tony Fernandez    10.5 1994 2001 32-39  688 2563 2253 317  664 140 11 41 301 238  28 259  33  17 22  54  44 37 .295 .367 .421 .788   546/HD         CIN-NYY-CLE-MIL-TOR7      Dave Concepcion     9.9 1980 1988 32-40 1139 4446 4021 421 1058 188 17 31 421 349  35 539   5  26 44 133 101 47 .263 .320 .341 .661 *64/5H31                         CIN8          Herman Long     9.8 1898 1904 32-38  764 3235 2931 391  718 110 28 29 408     196 183   8        100    124 .245 .294 .331 .625    *6/43             BSN-NYY-DET-PHI9           Joe Tinker     7.8 1913 1916 32-35  274 1012  897 104  252  43 21  3 113      72  62   2         40  32 12 .281 .336 .386 .721   *6/54H                 CIN-CHI-CHC10   Rabbit Maranville     7.5 1924 1935 32-43 1174 4790 4285 528 1080 177 69  5 363     364 281  16    125  21  71 19 .252 .313 .329 .642   *64/H5         PIT-CHC-BRO-STL-BSN11        Dick Bartell     7.1 1940 1946 32-38  442 1846 1568 221  406  69  6 22 141     221 145  25     31  36  27  3 .259 .359 .353 .712   *65/H4                     DET-NYG12       Jimmy Rollins     6.6 2011 2014 32-35  544 2373 2128 294  540 105 11 53 202 221  14 308   5   7 12  34  99 24 .254 .324 .388 .712    *6/HD                         PHI13     Orlando Cabrera     6.0 2007 2011 32-36  729 3153 2899 380  801 153  5 34 313 181   2 316  12  18 43  73  71 22 .276 .317 .368 .685  *6/4HD5 LAA-CHW-MIN-OAK-CIN-CLE-SFG14       Rafael Furcal     5.8 2010 2014 32-36  314 1365 1228 183  324  56 11 21 122 114   6 163   6  10  7  16  43 13 .264 .328 .379 .706    *6/H4                 LAD-STL-MIA15        Leo Cardenas     4.5 1971 1975 32-36  464 1652 1494 113  360  45  6 25 141 115  10 210   3  28 12  38   6  9 .241 .294 .329 .624  *6/5HD4             MIN-CAL-CLE-TEX16     Garry Templeton     0.8 1988 1991 32-35  508 1762 1649 148  405  76 15 21 161  77  32 227   0  23 13  48  13 11 .246 .277 .348 .625  *6/H359                     SDP-NYM17       Rick Burleson    -0.0 1983 1987 32-36  195  683  600  85  154  35  1  7  54  62   1  76   4  15  2  14   1  7 .257 .329 .353 .683   /64DH5                     CAL-BAL18          Ron Hansen     0.0 1970 1972 32-34  136  305  266  21   61   7  0  6  36  31   3  42   1   1  6   7   0  1 .229 .306 .323 .629   /*H564                     NYY-KCR19        Glenn Wright    -0.5 1933 1935 32-34   80  234  217  20   52  14  0  1  19      11  30   1      5   9   1  0 .240 .279 .318 .597  /*6H345                     BRO-CHW

Looks like about half of the list would have provided 6+ wins of value from 32-on, and most of that value is in the next three years. So using these comps you'd guess that Hardy has maybe a 50/50 chance of being worth a 3/30 deal, and maybe a 25% chance (each) of being a good value or a total bust. Hardy is on the low side of the original list, so maybe knock those numbers down a bit.

Very helpful stuff, thanks!