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Two Year Window


weams

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Well, the Orioles accomplished a real playoff spot during their window, and the only player that will be lost in the window really contributed much is J.J. Hardy. Nick had an ok year, but certainly replaceable for less money.

So I ask.

Did we really have a window at all?

It appears that our organization has turned a big corner.

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Well, the Orioles accomplished a real playoff spot during their window, and the only player that will be lost in the window really contributed much is J.J. Hardy. Nick had an ok year, but certainly replaceable for less money.

So I ask.

Did we really have a window at all?

It appears that our organization has turned a big corner.

I'd hope you never really bought into any 'window' rhetoric.

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Seems like when they hired Dave Wallace the pitching turned a corner.

As far as the offense and defense goes its wait and see. Adam and Manny are the only guys that are established and going to be around for a while. Everyone else has a contract or performance issue that makes me not look into the future too far.

I think the two year window was based on Wieters and Davis becoming FA and this year makes it pretty clear they are replaceable.

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The window will stay open as long as they can continue to plug in players that fit the system. Theirs does not seem to be an expensive approach, so we should be in good shape for a long time.

There is risk that you'll have years where the seemingly random players they plug in don't pan out. You're not going to get 10 wins out of Caleb Joseph, Steve Pearce, and Darren O'Day every year.

I do agree that the concept of windows of contention is overblown. Teams don't nicely slot into rebuilding, contending and fading pigeonholes.

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I think the team is an unknown going forward. There aren't a TON of players on the team that you can point to and say, "they will be the anchor going forward." Jones, Machado, and Schoop are it right now. That is a good core, but we really need Machado and Schoop's bat to come around for it to be the kind of core that can carry the O's year and year in the AL East. Gausman is still up in the air, depending on the development of his command and his breaking pitch. After that it's a mystery. How much do you believe DD can continue pulling rabbits out of his hat? How much talent is there in the minors right now that can move up and become part of the core? What will teams like Boston and New York look like going forward? What we really need is Gausman and Bundy to develop into TOR starters. That will mask a lot, assuming there might be issues that need to be masked going forward.

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I don't believe in windows. If you can continue to develop pitching your window will never close. The reason why we lost for 14 straight years? Daniel Cabrera, Hayden Penn, Adam Loewen, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, etc.

The reason why we made the playoffs this year? Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman. I would like to think that the O's are willing to pay a homegrown ace to keep him here (Tillman). Gausman has many years left until we have to worry about him. There are still guys in the minors that have potential. I'm not worried about Davis. I'm not worried about Wieters. I'm not worried about Markakis or Hardy. I'm worried about this team continuing to have a strong starting rotation. If they do that, the rest of the pieces can be put together.

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I think the big news this season was the emergence of the starting pitching. I had viewed this team as a pretty good offensive team with great defense and so-so pitching before this season, so the "window" mostly related to the key position players. However, this season it was the pitching that was the key, especially the starting pitching.

We do potentially lose Chen and Norris after 2015, but Tillman, Gonzalez, Jimenez and Gausman are all here for at least three years and Bundy is on the horizon. You have Machado and Jones here for longer than that. So, I think we have a pretty competitive core group for at least three more years, though Dan is going to have to do some work to either retain or replace some of the key players whose contracts expire this offseason and next.

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I think the big news this season was the emergence of the starting pitching. I had viewed this team as a pretty good offensive team with great defense and so-so pitching before this season, so the "window" mostly related to the key position players. However, this season it was the pitching that was the key, especially the starting pitching.

We do potentially lose Chen and Norris after 2015, but Tillman, Gonzalez, Jimenez and Gausman are all here for at least three years and Bundy is on the horizon. You have Machado and Jones here for longer than that. So, I think we have a pretty competitive core group for at least three more years, though Dan is going to have to do some work to either retain or replace some of the key players whose contracts expire this offseason and next.

Much of what is thought of as pitching is, in fact, defense.

I look at this team as having much in common with the mid-70s Orioles. They kept plugging away, winning 90-some games almost every year despite rotation turnover, and plugging in almost random names like Ross Grimsley and Wayne Garland and Mike Torrez and Rudy May. None of them were bad pitchers, but a lot of guys had their best years playing in front of Belanger and Brooks and the rest of that defense.

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The window concept IMO is a by-product of dealing Jake, likely two top 100 prospects and three top 60 draft picks. Much of our success has been paid forward from our future. I do think there could be some quick replenishment to our system by trading certain players and also letting others leave via FA (with a generous QO). I think there are certain key variables in play noted below:

1) Will our FO go all-in again next year - offering significant contracts to older players like Cruz and Hardy? And perhaps sacrificing more draft picks on other FAs? Does this depend on how well the team does in the playoffs this year?

2) How long is Buck committed to managing in Bmore and how much of a rebuild would he hang around for?

3) What are the internal assessments on Gausman and Bundy? How good will they be and how quickly?

4) How good will the other teams in our division be next year?

5) Can Joseph be a full time catcher and, if so, what can Wieters bring in trade?

I think our FO could put a pretty good team together if we deal Wieters for a quality OF prospect to put into LF, offer QOs and receive draft picks for Hardy and Cruz and cut Davis. That would bring about $30+M in salary back and leave holes at SS and DH to be filled in FA. We could also deal Chen for some quality prospects (perhaps at SS) as well and hope for a turnaround from Ubaldo. That would be a partial re-build that would go with LF prospect, Jones, Markakis, Pearce, Walker, Schoop, Machado, SS prospect, Joseph; Tillman, Ubaldo, Gausman, Norris and MiGon; with Hunter, ODay and Britton while netting additional draft picks, prospects while waiting for Bundy. That should be more than enough of a major league team for Buck to stick around and one to get to a pace of 80-85 wins before seeing if we need are competitive and need to supplement or further tear it down and deal O'Day, Norris and MiGon.

One other interesting aspect IMO is that we have a GM who likes to wheel and deal assets and a coach who appears fairly loyal to his players. I believe there is enough talent in the organization for me to hope there is not a hard landing up ahead that will cause Buck to depart and leave the organization with several years of rebuilding. A lot of those decisions will be made this offseason.

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