Two Year Window

[DrungoHazewood]

... and have all your moves hit going forward to be competitive.

I don't think that's necessarily the case. The Orioles certainly didn't hit on all of their moves this year. They gave second base to Schoop, and he put up a .598 OPS. They signed Johan Santana, and got absolutely nothing out of him. They traded their 50-save closer (who, yes, imploded, but he was still a 50-save closer) for a minor league second baseman who gave them nothing. They started the year with the plan to play David Lough a lot, and he didn't even clear 200 PAs. Ubaldo was a disaster. They released 6-win Steve Pearce (luckily they re-signed him two days later). They signed Heath Bell, who pitched 10.2 innings for Nofolk before being released. They tried to recapture Joe Saunders' magic, and he allowed five runs in three innings. And they lost all kinds of value to injuries to Machado, Wieters, and others, and they had varying success in trying to replace them.

And they still lapped the field. Very few teams are bad enough that they need everything to go right to win.

[DrungoHazewood]

I would like to see more talent coming up through the pipeline.

Who wouldn't? I think most (all?) folks would trade Josh Hader, Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, some comp picks and ERod for a 95-win season. Circa 2009 I'm pretty sure that a majority of the board would have traded the entire farm system and three years worth of draft picks for a wildcard birth.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I don't think that's necessarily the case. The Orioles certainly didn't hit on all of their moves this year. They gave second base to Schoop, and he put up a .598 OPS. They signed Johan Santana, and got absolutely nothing out of him. They traded their 50-save closer (who, yes, imploded, but he was still a 50-save closer) for a minor league second baseman who gave them nothing. They started the year with the plan to play David Lough a lot, and he didn't even clear 200 PAs. Ubaldo was a disaster. They released 6-win Steve Pearce (luckily they re-signed him two days later). They signed Heath Bell, who pitched 10.2 innings for Nofolk before being released. They tried to recapture Joe Saunders' magic, and he allowed five runs in three innings. And they lost all kinds of value to injuries to Machado, Wieters, and others, and they had varying success in trying to replace them.

And they still lapped the field. Very few teams are bad enough that they need everything to go right to win.

Going forward I don't think we will live in a world where Boston, New York, and Tampa were this bad. And even if it were, if the center pieces of your team are TJ, Bach, etc, you really are going to need all your moves to hit. But I don't think those guys are the "future," so I agree with you. But those guys are indicative of the fact that the O's future is very unknown right now, so those are the guys that can be pointed to.

[DrungoHazewood]

Going forward I don't think we will live in a world where Boston' date=' New York, and Tampa were this bad. And even if it were, if the center pieces of your team are TJ, Bach, etc, you really are going to need all your moves to hit. But I don't think those guys are the "future," so I agree with you. But those guys are indicative of the fact that the O's future is very unknown right now, so those are the guys that can be pointed to.[/quote']

Luckily the centerpieces of the team aren't TJ, Bach, etc. They're Machado, Jones, Tillman, Britton, etc.

[wildcard]

If you want to say the Orioles are in great shape right now' date=' and that is largely because the moves they made, that's fine. That's a separate argument. The issue isn't that the Orioles didn't do well this season, it's if the Orioles paid a decent price trying to get to this point. And I would argue that they did. The gave up some valuable future pieces, and missed a chance to add valuable future pieces by not moving certain guys, so they can win now. The farm system is middle of the road right now, so it's not as if it is loaded with talent ready to step in and keep the bus moving. You basically said it yourself. The "future" is "...Bach, Guilmett, TJ..." If those 3 are your future, you're going to need to be really creative and have all your moves hit going forward to be competitive.[/quote']

On a normal basis if a team can add two to three rookies a year from the farm system they are doing well. The O's added Gausman, Schoop and Joseph who all contributed to the O's 96 win season. That is pretty solid.

Next year Bundy and Walker are looking like rookies that may play a role as some point during the season. Maybe Alvarez or Urrutia can be added to that.

Its true that DD has traded some young players and draft choices. He is doing something that has not been done to the O's since the mid 90's. He is making is a priority to win each year. I am in favor of that after 14 years of losing. Can't argue with his direction for the O's at all. He makes determinations on who from the farm can be traded and who stays. He has hired the scouts to find talented players and coaches that know how to develop them.

I am very happy with what Dan Duquette has done for the O's and the fan base.

[wildcard]

I don't believe there is a window.

How about a door? Do you believe in doors and are they open for the O's?

[weams]

How about a door? Do you believe in doors and are they open for the O's?

I don't believe in superstars

Organic food and foreign cars

I don't believe the price of gold

The certainty of growing old

That right is right and left is wrong

That north and south can't get along

That east is east and west is west

And bein' first is always best.

But I believe in love

[JayThomas]

On a normal basis if a team can add two to three rookies a year from the farm system they are doing well. The O's added Gausman, Schoop and Joseph who all contributed to the O's 96 win season. That is pretty solid.

Next year Bundy and Walker are looking like rookies that may play a role as some point during the season. Maybe Alvarez or Urrutia can be added to that.

Its true that DD has traded some young players and draft choices. He is doing something that has not been done to the O's since the mid 90's. He is making is a priority to win each year. I am in favor of that after 14 years of losing. Can't argue with his direction for the O's at all. He makes determinations on who from the farm can be traded and who stays. He has hired the scouts to find talented players and coaches that know how to develop them.

I am very happy with what Dan Duquette has done for the O's and the fan base.

Hear hear. In DD we trust.

[tntoriole]

It is pitching, pitching, pitching. Bundy and Gausman are the two key factors in the next couple of years. If we hit the jackpot with them, forget about windows, we will be contenders for a substantial time. I also have a very sneaky good feeling about Christian Walker. Something tells me he may be one of those guys that just swoops in out of nowhere and becomes a force.

[JayThomas]

I think the window closes after 2015 when Davis and Wieters hit free agency. That's a big chunk of talent. This offseason we are looking at Hardy, Cruz, Miller and Markakis as possible exits. I think we retain two of those four (Markakis and Hardy) and with the Cruz money sign another impact bat. Assuming Wieters and Davis return to form, I could see next year's team slicing through the AL East. But after that, I think all bets are off. Just my two cents:cool:

Call me crazy, but of those guys I want Miller back the most. I would see if we could stretch either he or Britton out for the rotation. If one of them can get to 5 innings with close to the same stuff as they're showing in the BP by the start of the regular season (hopefully to 6+ later on), that would open up an opportunity to trade someone from the rotation for some major prospect(s). It would also give us the option to have to LH starters for the first time since when?

I would definitely offer Hardy and Cruz QO and not really care if they took them or not. Again, call me crazy, but I'd be OK with Flaherty at SS next year and Young at DH/LF.

I'm betting that they re-up Cakes, and not at a price I'll like. His numbers are pretty replaceable, but his visibility as an Oriole is not. Personally, I'd let him walk, but I doubt the FO does.

... very glad to have De Aza in the fold.

[tntoriole]

I don't believe in superstars

Organic food and foreign cars

I don't believe the price of gold

The certainty of growing old

That right is right and left is wrong

That north and south can't get along

That east is east and west is west

And bein' first is always best.

But I believe in love

the old smoothie, Don Williams. lol.

[Aristotelian]

Call me crazy, but of those guys I want Miller back the most. I would see if we could stretch either he or Britton out for the rotation. If one of them can get to 5 innings with close to the same stuff as they're showing in the BP by the start of the regular season (hopefully to 6+ later on), that would open up an opportunity to trade someone from the rotation for some major prospect(s). It would also give us the option to have to LH starters for the first time since when?

Have you seen Britton and Miller's numbers as starters?

[brianod]

I think Buck and DD have done a great job. But, all those ignoring the upcoming losses and simply saying "in DD we trust" are being a little naive imo. Yes, I trust DD and Buck, but no, the potential losses are not easily replaced. Cruz in a mvp candidtate. Hardy is the best defensive SS in baseball who is also a good hitter. Markakis is the only leadoff hitter in the organization and Miller is an absolute stud setup man. Anyone who thinks we can lose 3-4 of those guys and compete next year is fooling themselves. In today's baseball, all free agents are way overpriced. The O's can't afford to pay players more than they are worth. So, we better sign at least two of the above or we will find ourselves on the outside looking in next year.

[WEAVERMAN]

I think the big news this season was the emergence of the starting pitching. I had viewed this team as a pretty good offensive team with great defense and so-so pitching before this season, so the "window" mostly related to the key position players. However, this season it was the pitching that was the key, especially the starting pitching.

We do potentially lose Chen and Norris after 2015, but Tillman, Gonzalez, Jimenez and Gausman are all here for at least three years and Bundy is on the horizon. You have Machado and Jones here for longer than that. So, I think we have a pretty competitive core group for at least three more years, though Dan is going to have to do some work to either retain or replace some of the key players whose contracts expire this offseason and next.

The Orioles need to sign Chen to a contract extension this off season. You never have enough pitching. And do it soon, his agent is Boras.

[hoosiers]

Are talking about trading Wieters in season and forgoing the pic for either team then? That seems to be a poor value.

No. I thought it was clear that the hypothetical situation putting a team together for next season whch would involve dealing Weiters this coming off-season.

I was not advocating dealing a player in-season, but will note that doing so does not have to "be a poor value" if the assets received have greater value that the QO draft pick - like the BoSox dealing Lester this past trade deadline.

Regarding