Of our young arms, who has the highest ceiling?

[wildcard]

Highest Ceiling

1. Liz

2. Erbe

3. Spoone

4. Tillman

5. Hernandez

6. Butler

7. Arrieta

Where do you think Penn is RZ?

[Jammer7]

I think, as far as pure ceilings go, my list would be:

1. Pedro Beato

2. Chris Tillman

3. Brandon Erbe

4. Chorye Spoone

5. David Hernandez

6. Radhames Liz

7. Jake Arrieta

8. Tony Butler

9. Zach Britton

10. Troy Patton

11. Tim Bascom

12. Garrett Olson

13. Brad Bergesen

14. Jake Renshaw

15. Jason Berken

[DennisTheOsFan]

When was the last time (if ever) we could put together a list like this without having to stretch for names?

This is an exciting time to be a minors fan. I mean, everynight you could be scouring the net to see how one of our young pitcher did.

I guess I'm a bit confused about Penn. A lot of people are high on him (I believe someone mentioned in this thread that he could be ahead of Loewen if things go his way), but I don't get the impression that he has great stuff.

[Tony-OH]

An interesting thread with some good knowledgeable opinions.

It's always tough to say who has the highest ceiling or who has the best chance of realizing that ceiling because pitching prospects are so tough to call at an early age.

When looking at everything including, stuff, age, build, and makeup, it would appear that Tillman is now our number one pitching prospect with the highest ceiling or the best chance of becoming an ace.

After that, Spoone, Erbe, Beatoand Butler would be the next group, but Erbe and Beato have a better chance of flaming out, especially Erbe.

The next group would be guys like Patton, Olson, and Liz who are more advanced and closer to the show. Patton and Olson could be guys who pitch anywhere from a 3rd starter to 5th starter although olson may end up in the pen if he doesn't work out that changeup. Liz has a tremendous arm, but his command may lead him into a closer role one day, but he has electric stuff.

Then there are the pretty much unknowns like Arrieta, Bascom, and really David Hernandez. Hernandez misses bats, but he has significant issues working from the stretch that hinders his projections. Arrieta and Bascom are coming off injuries so we don't know what we have in them until we see them pitch next year.

Tell you what though, that's a lot of names to follow and that doesn't even montion guys to keep an eye on like Kershaw, Bergesen, and Britton.

[orioole28]

An interesting thread with some good knowledgeable opinions.

It's always tough to say who has the highest ceiling or who has the best chance of realizing that ceiling because pitching prospects are so tough to call at an early age.

When looking at everything including, stuff, age, build, and makeup, it would appear that Tillman is now our number one pitching prospect with the highest ceiling or the best chance of becoming an ace.

After that, Spoone, Erbe, Beatoand Butler would be the next group, but Erbe and Beato have a better chance of flaming out, especially Erbe.

The next group would be guys like Patton, Olson, and Liz who are more advanced and closer to the show. Patton and Olson could be guys who pitch anywhere from a 3rd starter to 5th starter although olson may end up in the pen if he doesn't work out that changeup. Liz has a tremendous arm, but his command may lead him into a closer role one day, but he has electric stuff.

Then there are the pretty much unknowns like Arrieta, Bascom, and really David Hernandez. Hernandez misses bats, but he has significant issues working from the stretch that hinders his projections. Arrieta and Bascom are coming off injuries so we don't know what we have in them until we see them pitch next year.

Tell you what though, that's a lot of names to follow and that doesn't even montion guys to keep an eye on like Kershaw, Bergesen, and Britton.

You are right on most parts but Kershaw???

[DennisTheOsFan]

Tony, you mention that Erbe has a chance of flaming out. What do you think is the difference between Erbe and Tillman (you are very high on Tillman)? In my mind, I picture them to be the same type of pitcher.

Crystoner, thanks for the info on Penn. I do recall him doing some amazing stuff as a youngster in the minors. I did a quick look at his stats, but those two lines did not catch my eye, though it should have. He put up a 1.25 WHIP, and close to a 10 SO/9. That's terrific for a 20 year old in AA.

What type of stuff does Penn have, that he was able to accomplish this as a youngster?

[Jammer7]

You are right on most parts but Kershaw???

I wish it was Kershaw! But I think he means Renshaw.

Interesting on Hernandez' difficulties in the stretch. What would you do to help that? I know what I'd do for a little leaguer, but what can you realistically do in his case. Is it as simple as making him throw the majority of his side sessions from the stretch? Or do you extend that thought to games and keep him Frederick for that reason? Opinions?

[Tony-OH]

I wish it was Kershaw! But I think he means Renshaw.

Interesting on Hernandez' difficulties in the stretch. What would you do to help that? I know what I'd do for a little leaguer, but what can you realistically do in his case. Is it as simple as making him throw the majority of his side sessions from the stretch? Or do you extend that thought to games and keep him Frederick for that reason? Opinions?

Yep...damn new guys...

[Tony-OH]

Tony, you mention that Erbe has a chance of flaming out. What do you think is the difference between Erbe and Tillman (you are very high on Tillman)? In my mind, I picture them to be the same type of pitcher.

Crystoner, thanks for the info on Penn. I do recall him doing some amazing stuff as a youngster in the minors. I did a quick look at his stats, but those two lines did not catch my eye, though it should have. He put up a 1.25 WHIP, and close to a 10 SO/9. That's terrific for a 20 year old in AA.

What type of stuff does Penn have, that he was able to accomplish this as a youngster?

It appears that Tillman is much more refined then Erbe and they are basically the same age. Erbe took some huge steps backwards last year by reverting back to being a thrower when things went bad. That's not a good sign, but he's young enough to overcome it. As for flaming out, the only other knock on him is his frame may not be strong enough to be a starter when it's all said and done.

He's still young though so no one should give up on an arm like Erbe's.

[Sports Guy]

I agree with Tony that Tillman is the #1 guy in the system now...pitching wise.

The combination of age, results and stuff make him an easy choice for #1 IMO.

[orioole28]

I wish it was Kershaw! But I think he means Renshaw.

Interesting on Hernandez' difficulties in the stretch. What would you do to help that? I know what I'd do for a little leaguer, but what can you realistically do in his case. Is it as simple as making him throw the majority of his side sessions from the stretch? Or do you extend that thought to games and keep him Frederick for that reason? Opinions?

With Hernandez, it was basically not knowing what his out pitch was and I believe that pitch is his change-up. Now with that pitch in his arsenal, he will be a better pitcher.

[DennisTheOsFan]

Does Tillman have the stuff and makeup to be a future ace?

Normally, only a few arms from a farm system ever make it to the pros and stay there (for any team).

If only 3 of our top 20 pitchers will make it in the MLB, who would you say are the 3? This includes SP, RP, and closers.

[OrangeJerseys]

Adam Loewen.

He will eat the AL east in 08.

[DennisTheOsFan]

Adam Loewen.

He will eat the AL east in 08.

Yeah, my gut feeling tells me that Loewen will be a top of the rotation guy, and not by default. He's got to mix up his pitches, and the speed of his pitches, to keep batters guessing--these nuances come with time and experience. There are tons of pitchers who have terrific stuff--like a blazing fastball, a tight curve, and a biting change--but if batters guess right often enough because you don't change the speed on your pitches (and you don't locate your pitches well), you'll find only mild success.

Its all about making batters miss hitting your pitches. Loewen has good stuff, but now needs to figure out how to make bats miss his pitches.

[blazer]

This is a tough call, especially once you get into comparing our top relievers and our second tier starters. I tend to give a higher ceiling grade to those that can become a quality starter.

1. Tillman

2. Liz

(Penn)

3. Beato

4. Butler

5. Erbe

(Albers)

6. Spoone

7. Patton

8. Britton

9. Arrietta

10. Hernandez

11. Olson

12. Bascom

13. Berken

14. McCrory

15. Bergeson

16. Hoey

17. Mikolio

18. Sarfate

19. Lebron

20. Deza