WARrior - Another Adam Jones Trend

[BohKnowsBmore]

There was/has been a great thread ongoing regarding Adam Jones and his increasing HR totals year-over-year. Unfortunately that streak/upward trend was snapped this past season. There is another encouraging Jones-related trend to which we can turn our attention, though. His WAR totals have been increasing every single year, based on both common flavors of WAR (with the exception of one year in each, although the decline has been by 0.2 or less, so basically level). My question to you, the OH, is will this trend continue into the 2015 season?

Baseball Reference:

2006 (SEA) - 0.0

2007 (SEA) - 0.9

2008 (BAL) - 2.0

2009 (BAL) - 2.6

2010 (BAL) - 2.5

2011 (BAL) - 3.0

2012 (BAL) - 3.8

2013 (BAL) - 4.1

2014 (BAL) - 4.9

Fangraphs:

2006 (SEA) - -0.1

2007 (SEA) - 0.2

2008 (BAL) - 1.6

2009 (BAL) - 1.6

2010 (BAL) - 2.5

2011 (BAL) - 2.5

2012 (BAL) - 4.4

2013 (BAL) - 4.2

2014 (BAL) - 5.4

[Spy Fox]

Probably stay approximately the same. I doubt Adam can really be much more than a 5-win player. Which, of course, is already a super good player.

Adam's production is extremely consistent from season to season. It's kind of amazing actually. I bet if you looked over the last 4-5 years and ran some sort of consistency calculations, his stats would have far less variance than most major leaguers.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Probably stay approximately the same. I doubt Adam can really be much more than a 5-win player. Which, of course, is already a super good player.

Adam's production is extremely consistent from season to season. It's kind of amazing actually. I bet if you looked over the last 4-5 years and ran some sort of consistency calculations, his stats would have far less variance than most major leaguers.

He just had his age 28 season. Isn't 28 - 32 typically supposed to be prime years for MLB players?

[PA724_Oriole]

There was/has been a great thread ongoing regarding Adam Jones and his increasing HR totals year-over-year. Unfortunately that streak/upward trend was snapped this past season. There is another encouraging Jones-related trend to which we can turn our attention, though. His WAR totals have been increasing every single year, based on both common flavors of WAR (with the exception of one year in each, although the decline has been by 0.2 or less, so basically level). My question to you, the OH, is will this trend continue into the 2015 season?

Baseball Reference:

2006 (SEA) - 0.0

2007 (SEA) - 0.9

2008 (BAL) - 2.0

2009 (BAL) - 2.6

2010 (BAL) - 2.5

2011 (BAL) - 3.0

2012 (BAL) - 3.8

2013 (BAL) - 4.1

2014 (BAL) - 4.9

Fangraphs:

2006 (SEA) - -0.1

2007 (SEA) - 0.2

2008 (BAL) - 1.6

2009 (BAL) - 1.6

2010 (BAL) - 2.5

2011 (BAL) - 2.5

2012 (BAL) - 4.4

2013 (BAL) - 4.2

2014 (BAL) - 5.4

Going by the fangraphs trends, it looks like AJ is due for another season around 5.5 before making a jump.

[MurphDogg]

He just had his age 28 season. Isn't 28 - 32 typically supposed to be prime years for MLB players?

Adam Jones just had his age 28 season by a single day, if he was born on July 31st, 1985 instead of August 1st, he would have just completed his age 29 season.

28 or 29 is probably the peak age. Most players are declining by age 30. Here is a five year old BP article.

I think the chances are pretty good that last season will prove to be the best season of Adam Jones' career. I would love to be proven wrong though!

[25 Nuggets]

Yeah, I'm going to go with a slight decline this year in value. I'd put the +/- at 4.5 rWAR. Still an all-star candidate.

Jones' defense has been a bigger factor of late in increasing his value. He put in a very good season last year (+0.8 dWAR). His biggest year offensively was age 26, but it was also his worst year defensively (-1.3 dWAR!). Hopefully he never tries to play too shallow again.

[Nevermore]

He's going to bounce back and be even better than ever in 2015. :smile11:

[Il BuonO]

I voted decline. A 4+ win player with only a slight decline, but a decline nevertheless. If his defense continues to improve I'll take it though.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Here's a question. What would Adams value be as a COF? Clearly he is our CF now and into the future, no question there. As a team leader I can definitely see Adam as an oriole for the remainder of his career. At some point he won't be able to cover cf as well. Considering his skills right now, how valuable would be be at the corners. His bat would lose some value I would assume, but his range and arm would be more valuable on the defensive side, right?

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[Il BuonO]

Here's a question. What would Adams value be as a COF? Clearly he is our CF now and into the future, no question there. As a team leader I can definitely see Adam as an oriole for the remainder of his career. At some point he won't be able to cover cf as well. Considering his skills right now, how valuable would be be at the corners. His bat would lose some value I would assume, but his range and arm would be more valuable on the defensive side, right?

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He has one of the better arms in the league and I think he profiles nicely in RF. Similar to the move Torii Hunter made, but not for a while.

[BohKnowsBmore]

He has one of the better arms in the league and I think he profiles nicely in RF. Similar to the move Torii Hunter made, but not for a while.

Oh certainly not for a while, just a message board hypothetical.

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[weams]

Adam Jones is one of the top four real center fielders in MLB. Until he has a leg injury or his Orioles contract is over, he will play center field.

[weams]

Oh certainly not for a while, just a message board hypothetical.

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Very true. Many up the middle stars profile well elsewhere. I agree.

[Frobby]

Adam Jones just had his age 28 season by a single day, if he was born on July 31st, 1985 instead of August 1st, he would have just completed his age 29 season.

June 30/July 1 is the cutoff, not July 31/August 1. Not that it really matters, he is however old he is.

I don't see Adam getting much better from here. But I think he has several years of 4ish WAR baseball in him, enough to make his current contract (which runs through 2018) a steal.

[incubus]

I think he'll have a slight uptick this year, of .1-.2 WAR, then begin to decline slightly. Still think he'll hold at or above 4 WAR for a few years following 2015, I could see him gradually declining.