MASN: Steve Meleswski with Brian Graham - We are absolutely one of the premier development systems

[Stotle]

I am always sad that the Red Sox are in another income world from our little blue collar city. And Tampa's for that matter.

Tampa spent -- the Red Sox just drafted and developed much much better. Taylor Guerrieri went down so maybe he bounces back for the Rays this year. Blake Snell has made progress. A lot of potential whiffs in those first twelve picks though (all in the first 90 of the draft).

[Frobby]

Buck became manager July 2010. Duquette took over in November 2011. Arrieta was traded to the Cubs in July of 2013. The Cubs targeted him for specific reasons, identifying flaws they believed they could fix. To lay Jake's struggles at the feet of the former regime is pretty bad, weamsie.

But let's also not pretend that one great year from Arrieta means he is now a certifiable stud. It takes a lot to be a consistent MLB performer.

Buck's biggest failing as manager, in my opinion, was his hiring of Connor and Adair.

[MurphDogg]

Wait, are you saying that in that draft alone the Sox have drafted/developed more than the entirety of O's drafts 2009 - 2014...? Well, that's just beyond absurd...

5 top-100 players according to Baseball America, none in the top-30. Machado, Bundy and Gausman have all been ranked in the top-20 by Baseball America and Harvey is ranked #58 this year, higher than Betts or Swihart ever were. Machado is the only one to have had real success at the Major League level though both Betts and Gausman appear to be on the precipice this year/the end of last year. Plus, someone out of the group of Sisco, Walker, Davies, Berry, Wright and Yaz is likely to have some Major League success at some point.

Yes, the Red Sox had a great draft in 2009, they took advantage of a loophole that has since closed, in an historically good year to take advantage of the loop hole. But that doesn't mean you need to completely overstate the case.

[weams]

Buck became manager July 2010. Duquette took over in November 2011. Arrieta was traded to the Cubs in July of 2013. The Cubs targeted him for specific reasons, identifying flaws they believed they could fix. To lay Jake's struggles at the feet of the former regime is pretty bad, weamsie.

But let's also not pretend that one great year from Arrieta means he is now a certifiable stud. It takes a lot to be a consistent MLB performer.

Duquette was not developing Arrieta. Let's make that clear. Jake was the rose of Joe Jordon's overslots and he was a full time Oriole. Jake had no time with any other the folks that are developing the current Orioles farm. None. There was no development left on the competitive team that the Orioles were. Only a team that did not need to win could fix Jake. And make him a 5 WAR pitcher.

[Frobby]

Duquette was not developing Arrieta. Let's make that clear. Jake was the rose of Joe Jordon's overslots and he was a full time Oriole. Jake had no time with any other the folks that are developing the current Orioles farm. None. There was no development left on the competitive team that the Orioles were. Only a team that did not need to win could fix Jake. And make him a 5 WAR pitcher.

Jake made 10 MiL starts in 2012 and 15 in 2013 before he was traded.

[weams]

I watched Jake pitch a lot. What was going on with him started squarely between the ears. His mechanics were ridiculously erratic but in no predictable pattern. The bill of the hat touching that he couldn't control. The wide eyes. The freezing up of the brain that you could just literally see on television.

Now, if that is fixed, then either the Cubs or Jake deserve a ton of credit and the Orioles deserve scrutiny. I don't think it was about mechanics though. His motion was relatively simple and he could repeat it for long periods.

We will see. I think he was hot last year and it won't continue. If it does, I'd like to know what they/he did thst the Orioles didn't do.

Stotle made a good point. He said that the Cubs targeted flaws they thought they could fix with Jake. It is my opinion that the Oriole had too. And that Jake was unwilling to drop three of his pitches until he had hit rock bottom and had been traded for essentially a salary dump.

[Stotle]

I watched Jake pitch a lot. What was going on with him started squarely between the ears. His mechanics were ridiculously erratic but in no predictable pattern. The bill of the hat touching that he couldn't control. The wide eyes. The freezing up of the brain that you could just literally see on television.

Now, if that is fixed, then either the Cubs or Jake deserve a ton of credit and the Orioles deserve scrutiny. I don't think it was about mechanics though. His motion was relatively simple and he could repeat it for long periods.

We will see. I think he was hot last year and it won't continue. If it does, I'd like to know what they/he did thst the Orioles didn't do.

I don't think you'll hear/read this publicly. If interested take a look at sequencing and overall pitch selection (especially use of CH and SL). If you want mechanics you should be able to compare his work from stretch using MLB.tv. Those seem like the most likely areas where there were changes based on the production.

[Stotle]

5 top-100 players according to Baseball America, none in the top-30. Machado, Bundy and Gausman have all been ranked in the top-20 by Baseball America and Harvey is ranked #58 this year, higher than Betts or Swihart ever were. Machado is the only one to have had real success at the Major League level though both Betts and Gausman appear to be on the precipice this year/the end of last year. Plus, someone out of the group of Sisco, Walker, Davies, Berry, Wright and Yaz is likely to have some Major League success at some point.

Yes, the Red Sox had a great draft in 2009, they took advantage of a loophole that has since closed, in an historically good year to take advantage of the loop hole. But that doesn't mean you need to completely overstate the case.

I haven't looked at BA's list but I would be floored if Swihart wasn't a top 20 prospect. That would be a pretty huge departure from industry consensus. I definitely agree with you it's silly to claim Boston has developed more with those 2011 picks than Baltimore has in five years.

EDIT -- I went and looked -- Red Sox in BA Top 100 this year:

Mondaca (#10 per their show on MLB Network, but not listed in print)

Swihart #17

Rusney Castillo #21

Henry Owens #44

Eduardo Rodriguez #59

Manuel Margot #72

Brian Johnson #82

Rafael Devers #99

EDIT #2

I went back and checked their midseason Top 50 from last year:

Swihart #14

Owens #15

for whatever that's worth.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I haven't looked at BA's list but I would be floored if Swihart wasn't a top 20 prospect. That would be a pretty huge departure from industry consensus. I definitely agree with you it's silly to claim Boston has developed more with those 2011 picks than Baltimore has in five years.

EDIT -- I went and looked -- Red Sox in BA Top 100 this year:

Mondaca (#10 per their show on MLB Network, but not listed in print)

Swihart #17

Rusney Castillo #21

Henry Owens #44

Eduardo Rodriguez #59

Manuel Margot #72

Brian Johnson #82

Rafael Devers #99

EDIT #2

I went back and checked their midseason Top 50 from last year:

Swihart #14

Owens #15

for whatever that's worth.

Hopefully they will do better than their last group.

[MurphDogg]

I haven't looked at BA's list but I would be floored if Swihart wasn't a top 20 prospect. That would be a pretty huge departure from industry consensus. I definitely agree with you it's silly to claim Boston has developed more with those 2011 picks than Baltimore has in five years.

EDIT -- I went and looked -- Red Sox in BA Top 100 this year:

Mondaca (#10 per their show on MLB Network, but not listed in print)

Swihart #17

Rusney Castillo #21

Henry Owens #44

Eduardo Rodriguez #59

Manuel Margot #72

Brian Johnson #82

Rafael Devers #99

EDIT #2

I went back and checked their midseason Top 50 from last year:

Swihart #14

Owens #15

for whatever that's worth.

Sorry about that, I didn't intend to mislead. I was relying on their respective Baseball Reference pages which doesn't have links for the 2015 lists. I should have cross-referenced that against the 2015 list. My mistake. Baseball Reference has Swihart at #72 prior to 2012, unranked prior to 2013, and #73 prior to 2014.

[Beef Supreme]

I watched Jake pitch a lot. What was going on with him started squarely between the ears. His mechanics were ridiculously erratic but in no predictable pattern. The bill of the hat touching that he couldn't control. The wide eyes. The freezing up of the brain that you could just literally see on television.

Now, if that is fixed, then either the Cubs or Jake deserve a ton of credit and the Orioles deserve scrutiny. I don't think it was about mechanics though. His motion was relatively simple and he could repeat it for long periods.

We will see. I think he was hot last year and it won't continue. If it does, I'd like to know what they/he did thst the Orioles didn't do.

Does Jake no longer land on his heel?

[Stotle]

Hopefully they will do better than their last group.

Shrug. At a minimum it looks like they have (1) four back-end starters that are almost major-league ready (Owens/Rodriguez/Johnson/Matt Barnes), the first two with mid-rotation upside, (2) and everyday catcher with first-division upside, (3) everyday corner outfielder with above-average upside (Castillo), and (4) two all-star upside bats (Margot/Devers) to go along with Bogaerts and Betts.

Personally I think it should be a given they pony up and trade for Cole Hamels. I think most on here would point to the rotation as the biggest weakness, and it isn't like you don't have lots of excess to trade from. Looks like they might be content to just stockpile the trade chips, hope they all have a solid first half, and maybe try to move for Hamels at the deadline.

Cubs and Cardinals could do the same. Ultimately, I guess it comes down to how hard a deal Amaro wants to push. You only get one shot at trading Hamels -- he needs to get back a job-saving load.

[Stotle]

Sorry about that, I didn't intend to mislead. I was relying on their respective Baseball Reference pages which doesn't have links for the 2015 lists. I should have cross-referenced that against the 2015 list. My mistake. Baseball Reference has Swihart at #72 prior to 2012, unranked prior to 2013, and #73 prior to 2014.

I didn't think there was anything malicious. I just happened to have gone through the Red Sox system pretty thoroughly two weeks ago and was myself surprised they had so many prospects putting together solid campaigns as of late.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Shrug. At a minimum it looks like they have (1) four back-end starters that are almost major-league ready (Owens/Rodriguez/Johnson/Matt Barnes), the first two with mid-rotation upside, (2) and everyday catcher with first-division upside, (3) everyday corner outfielder with above-average upside (Castillo), and (4) two all-star upside bats (Margot/Devers) to go along with Bogaerts and Betts.

Personally I think it should be a given they pony up and trade for Cole Hamels. I think most on here would point to the rotation as the biggest weakness, and it isn't like you don't have lots of excess to trade from. Looks like they might be content to just stockpile the trade chips, hope they all have a solid first half, and maybe try to move for Hamels at the deadline.

Cubs and Cardinals could do the same. Ultimately, I guess it comes down to how hard a deal Amaro wants to push. You only get one shot at trading Hamels -- he needs to get back a job-saving load.

Well, I recollect you being high on the Red Sox farm system for many years now. I'm just not seeing where they have contributed much to the ML team over the past few years. They haven't produced any decent pitchers. They have sent more heavily in free agency. Guys like Jackie Bradley Junior and Middlebrooks have been failures and they've been forced to spend crazy money on Panda and Ramirez to play LF. Now they spent 63 million (I believe that is the net amount) for a Cuban prospect. For as lame as the Orioles farm system has supposedly been it appears to me we have gotten much more value from our farm system than they have from theirs over the past few years. That's not even taking into account the value that we've gotten from from the fringe Major Leaguers,

As far as Hamels goes, sounds like the Phillies are insistent on Betts and/or Swihart and maybe not that impressed with the rest of it as you are. Not that I'm claiming the Phillies be some great organization or anything.

[weams]

You only get one shot at trading Hamels -- he needs to get back a job-saving load.

It won't matter. You can't know that it would be job saving in time. No way to judge the haul in time. He is being evaluated by Dave Montgomery and Pat Gillick. He's gone. maybe they will go after Duquette for Philadelphia.