Thirty years on...

[BillySmith]

So the all-farm team, since Ripken, would look something like this:

2B Roberts

CF Finley

RF Markakis

SS Ripken

1B Segui

LF Hammonds

DH Pickering

3B Rayford

C Dempsey's nephew

Starters: Mussina, Bedard, Bod****er, Harnisch, McDonald

Pen: Olsen, Ray, Rhodes, Benitez, Milacki, Maine, Bauer

That's pretty bad for 30 years of work. The pitching staff isn't too bad, and the top of the order is very nice. But overall, this spells futility.

[crstrobel]

Schilling has had a pretty good career.

He and Brady were products of the Red Sox system

[bobmc]

So the all-farm team, since Ripken, would look something like this:

2B Roberts

CF Finley

RF Markakis

SS Ripken

1B Segui

LF Hammonds

DH Pickering

3B Rayford

C Dempsey's nephew

Starters: Mussina, Bedard, Bodd icker, Harnisch, McDonald

Pen: Olsen, Ray, Rhodes, Benitez, Milacki, Maine, Bauer

That's pretty bad for 30 years of work. The pitching staff isn't too bad, and the top of the order is very nice. But overall, this spells futility.

I "pompously" fixed that for ya! :002_stongue:

[BillySmith]

I "pompously" fixed that for ya! :002_stongue:

Ha, ha. I hear ya.

[Mad Mark]

I still don't see how people can say "30 years" when the O's made the WS in '79 and then won it in '83. They were also in the playoffs in 1980. Any slide would have to start with the first losing season which would have been 1986. Screw what was going on in the MiL, because if a team can keep winning at the MLB level with a poor MiL system, I'll take it.

Also, the run from 1992 to 1997 wasn't that bad and resulted in a cumulative 494-410 record.

So yes, overall, the last 25 years have sucked, but there have been times when the team wasn't a disaster.

What sets the pre-1998 suckfest apart from the last ten years is the hope that at any given time, the team could become good again. They sucked in 1991 but were good in 1992. They sucked in 1995 but were good in 1996. These last 10 years have offered little hope, and it's almost as if the owner has purposefully run the team into the ground to benefit his own agenda.

Wait a minute, he did.

Going back to my house analogy: you can have one that looks quite fine on the first and second floors, and still have a rotten foundation that's about to cause the whole thing to cave in. That's my impression of the post-1978 Orioles organization.

[Mad Mark]

So the all-farm team, since Ripken, would look something like this:

2B Roberts, B Ripken

CF Finley

RF Markakis

SS Ripken

1B Segui

LF Hammonds

DH Pickering

3B Rayford

C Dempsey's nephew

Starters: Mussina, Bedard, Bod****er, Harnisch, McDonald

Pen: Olsen, Ray, Rhodes, Benitez, Milacki, Maine, Bauer

That's pretty bad for 30 years of work. The pitching staff isn't too bad, and the top of the order is very nice. But overall, this spells futility.

Even with my addition of Bill Ripken @ 2B, that's one pathetic list. If we have to reach all the way to Segui, Hammonds, Pickering, Rayford and Zaun simply to fill a list of home-grown position players, we're a sorrowful bunch.

Also note that only three (I believe) of those players are still in the game, only two are currently Orioles, and only Markakis is likely to spend most of his career here.

[RShack]

We had a thread last week touch on this, though the argument's still valid and open for discussion. I don't remember who started it. Basically, the OP asserted that the O's downfall began in the early 1980's with reduced focus on the farm system (under the two owners prior to Angelos), a problem that has persisted essentially up until last year (though its effects will be felt for a few years still). It's a good thread, though I don't have the time to find it right now. Basically, I think you're right.

I think the most recent thread is this one: http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=59377

I know I've mentioned it several times in the past, and a couple other's have too. All this "10 years" stuff is just people being fooled by PA trying to pull a Steinbrenner, which does nothing to fix the problem. The problem started when Hoffberger sold the team to EBW in '79. Others think EBW was a fine owner, but I don't. I say he's the guy who bought *THE* best franchise in baseball and destroyed it. The subsequent owners failed to fix it, but they didn't break it, it was already broken.

[DrungoHazewood]

For as bad as the system was for the last 30 years, we've still managed to produce a HoF SS (Ripken), two ace pitchers (Mussina, Bedard), another solid SP (Bod****er), a closer (Olson) an AS 2B (Roberts) and a slew of decent players (Finley, Harnisch, McDonald, Hammonds, Segui, Rhodes, Benitez, Markakis)

Granted, that's 14 players in a 30 year span.

I think that's well short of a self-sustaining organization, even if they didn't trade half those players. They probably need to do at least twice that well to compete in the AL East with a $50M-$100M payroll disparity.

[Maverick2143]

So the all-farm team, since Ripken, would look something like this:

2B Roberts

CF Finley

RF Markakis

SS Ripken

1B Segui

LF Hammonds

DH Pickering

3B Rayford

C Dempsey's nephew

Starters: Mussina, Bedard, Bod****er, Harnisch, McDonald

Pen: Olsen, Ray, Rhodes, Benitez, Milacki, Maine, Bauer

That's pretty bad for 30 years of work. The pitching staff isn't too bad, and the top of the order is very nice. But overall, this spells futility.

Wow 30 years and that is what the O's produced at 3 critical power positions. The development of power hitters has been awful. Actually, other than Ripken have we developed a 30 HR hitter in the last 30 years?

[DrungoHazewood]

I think the most recent thread is this one: http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=59377

I know I've mentioned it several times in the past, and a couple other's have too. All this "10 years" stuff is just people being fooled by PA trying to pull a Steinbrenner, which does nothing to fix the problem. The problem started when Hoffberger sold the team to EBW in '79. Others think EBW was a fine owner, but I don't. I say he's the guy who bought *THE* best franchise in baseball and destroyed it. The subsequent owners failed to fix it, but they didn't break it, it was already broken.

The '83 Champs weren't a young team, and when Lowenstein, Singleton, McGregor, etc went into full-fledged decline there was nothing at all to replace them. The roots of the problem go back to the late 70s. By '84 the team was already eerily similar to the 2000-2007 team. Little coming from the farm, and just enough payroll to sign declining, mediocre free agents to fill the gaps.

[TonySoprano]

Despite having Hank Peters, Orioles GM 1975-1987; and managers, Earl Weaver, manager 1968-1982, 1985-1986, Cal Ripken, Sr, manager, 1987-1988, and Frank Robinson (all of whom were extremely well versed in the "Orioles way"); Edward Bennett Williams, owner 1980-1988 still managed to "destroy" *THE* best franchise in baseball? Furthermore, he so completely "destroyed" *THE* best franchise in such a way that nearly twenty years after he succumbed to cancer, and under the fourteen-year-plus stewardship of Peter G. Angelos, that it could not possibly be rebuilt again? Williams is the real villain, and Peter Angelos is the guy who, *aw shucks*, just couldn't fix it.

[mefogus]

The '83 Champs weren't a young team, and when Lowenstein, Singleton, McGregor, etc went into full-fledged decline there was nothing at all to replace them. The roots of the problem go back to the late 70s. By '84 the team was already eerily similar to the 2000-2007 team. Little coming from the farm, and just enough payroll to sign declining, mediocre free agents to fill the gaps.

Would you say that there was an uptick in youth potential in the 88-90 timeframe? It's arguable, but there is some merit there. Assuming that it is, where did we go wrong again? Glenn Davis?

-m

[TonySoprano]

The '83 Champs weren't a young team, and when Lowenstein, Singleton, McGregor, etc went into full-fledged decline there was nothing at all to replace them. The roots of the problem go back to the late 70s. By '84 the team was already eerily similar to the 2000-2007 team. Little coming from the farm, and just enough payroll to sign declining, mediocre free agents to fill the gaps.

The late 70s as in before Williams' time.

Here is the 1983 team (minimum 200 at bats, 50 IP)

Singleton - acquired in trade, 1974

Dempsey - acquired in trade, 1976

McGregor - acquired in trade, 1976

T. Martinez - acquired in trade, 1976

Roenicke - acquired in trade, 1977

Ford - acquired in trade, 1982

Hernandez - acquired in trade, 1982

Gulliver - acquired in trade, 1982

Cruz - acquired in trade, 1983

Bumbry - drafted, 1968

Flanagan - drafted, 1973

Murray - drafted 1973

Dauer - drafted 1974

Shelby - drafted, 1977

Ripken - drafted, 1978

Bod****er - drafted, 1978

Davis - drafted, 1979

Ramirez - drafted, 1979

Young - drafted, 1980

Palmer - free agent, 1963

D. Martinez free agent, 1973

Stewart - free agent, 1975

Stoddard - free agent, 1977

Morogiello - free agent, 1982

Rodriguez - free agent, 1983

Landrum - free agent, 1988

Lowenstein - waiver claim, 1978

In the entire six years leading up to that championship, the farm system produced Shelby, Ripken, Bod****er, Davis, Ramirez, and Young

[RShack]

Tony, if we're gonna all be repeating ourselves from the other thread, I will too...

This whole "argument" is a red herring. Do you not believe in the free market system?

No, I am not saying that the fact that EBW destroyed THE best franchise in baseball means that we should become Socialists. But neither do I think that a guy's ability to destroy a great organization and still make a profit makes him a good guy. Nor am I saying Jacobs and PA were not bad owners. They were. Why do you keep bringing them up to defend EBW? Since EBW was dead by the time the other guys got the team, I don't understand what they have to do with how EBW ruined the franchise.

If you just look at what he did, you're fighting a losing battle. Look at this way: If you're counting on the organization to develop players and maintain a winning culture, it's not an instant thing. Unless you're pulling a Steinbrenner and buying stars who you didn't grow, it takes a while. Can we agree about that? So, how long should we say it takes for the dried-up pipeline to cause problems? The O's signed Cal in '78, and his big ROY year was '82. So, that's a diff of 4 years. I guess we could argue for a little more or a little less, but using Cal seems like a very Oriole thing to do, so let's just say it takes 4 years, OK?

Since EBW was responsible for the 80-88 seasons, that means the effects of the system will be visible on the ML club from 84-92 (unless we had a Steinbrenner in there, which we didn't.) I just looked up the O's winning percentage for those years. They work out to an average winning percentage of .468. For 162 games, that's 76 wins. If we back up and look at the 8 years previous to that, it was .580, which translates to 94 wins. That means that during the years of "the EBW effect", the O's went from *averaging* 94 wins per year, all the way down to 76 wins per year. Now, I know you like to think that Jacobs and PA are way worse than EBW, but they're not. If you take all the O's seasons after the EBW effect, then the winning percentage is .476, which is 77 wins over a 162 game season.

So, to review:

• EBW was in charge for about 8 years.
  
• In the 8 years prior to EBW's destruction of the Orioles organization trickling up to the ML club, the O's had an average winning pct of .580, or 94 wins per year.
  
• During the years that EBW's effects show up, the franchise sunk to an average winning pct. of .468, or 76 wins.
  
• In all the years after that time period combined, the franchise had an average winning pct. of .476, or 77 wins.
  

Face it, Tony, EBW is the guy who screwed the pooch and destroyed the franchise. The 2 guys since have just continued the level of crapitude that EBW established.

Your bias is showing. If EBW is destined for hell, in your book, it's a real good thing Angelos knows a thing or two about asbestos.

Jacobs and PA have zilch to do with EBW. He's they guy who put the O's in the toilet.

What is your allegiance to EBW? I don't get it. Was he your cousin or something?

Class dismissed.

Just one more thought: You keep wanting to give EBW credit for working out a deal with Schaeffer to put the new stadium in the City. Um, how hard do you think it was to convince Willie Don Schaeffer to put it in the City? Don't you think that was approximately as hard as convincing the Pope that it's good to be Catholic?

[Mad Mark]

OK...I want to push this thread back towards its original intent: to get a fix on when the Orioles farm system (as opposed to the ML club) went into the tailspin MacPhail is currently trying to pull it out of.

Among the owners, there's plenty of blame to go around...can we lay that part of the discussion to rest?

Also, I'd like to take this thing in another direction: say we agree on the (approximately) 30-year period in the developmental wilderness. How long (starting from last July) does it take the Orioles to get out? How long before the system is producing a position player a year? And how many pitchers a year should it be producing?