If the Orioles stink in the first half...

[Ohfan67]

Dan Duquette is not cheap. He signed Manny Ramirez. He has the highest Orioles payroll of all time. Dan is not cheap.

First, I guess you missed the smily face. Second, he is a little cheap...as an Oriole. And I'm not complaining (very much). I'm not an advocate of wasting money and crippling the team with dumb contracts. He's a bargain bin shopper as far as most GMs go. Fiscally conservative. That sounds better than cheap, yes?

[weams]

First, I guess you missed the smily face. Second, he is a little cheap...as an Oriole. And I'm not complaining (very much). I'm not an advocate of wasting money and crippling the team with dumb contracts. He's a bargain bin shopper as far as most GMs go. Fiscally conservative. That sounds better than cheap, yes?

I'm not much for the whole emotion thing. But sure, he has adapted to his market position. Yes. I think he is less a bargain bin shopper or conservative than a value added player buyer. He looks for niches and upside. Not paying for past performance.

[mdbdotcom]

First, I guess you missed the smily face. Second, he is a little cheap...as an Oriole. And I'm not complaining (very much). I'm not an advocate of wasting money and crippling the team with dumb contracts. He's a bargain bin shopper as far as most GMs go. Fiscally conservative. That sounds better than cheap, yes?

He has established a system within the organization for determining the dollar value of every player. From what I understand (though I could be wrong) it takes into consideration things like fan appeal as well as the usual production metrics. He doesn't overpay for players, and he usually doesn't get involved during the free agent feeding frenzy, when players get the most they will ever get.

[Ohfan67]

He has established a system within the organization for determining the dollar value of every player. From what I understand (though I could be wrong) it takes into consideration things like fan appeal as well as the usual production metrics. He doesn't overpay for players, and he usually doesn't get involved during the free agent feeding frenzy, when players get the most they will ever get.

I agree. And Overall like. And I think that's why he won't offer Norris a QO.

[El Gordo]

Dan's not cheap he's frugal. If he had BOS' budget he'd be signing today's version of Manny Ramirez.

[Crazysilver03]

Ricky Romero got 30 million.

Extensions with their original team is different from free agent contracts.

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[Crazysilver03]

Heck even Brandon McCarthy got 4 yrs/$48M. He could end up in the toilet easily.

And what would he have got from any other team that actually has payroll constraints?

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[Crazysilver03]

I think that GMs have universally shown they will give up the pick if the player will play for a discounted amount. The problem with Drew and Morales is that they insisted on an AVV of the QO for multiple seasons. I am not saying it is smart or that a sabermetrically inclined mind would see it as even plausible. I just look at the history and say...yep, a 30 year old healthy starting pitcher with more wins than losses and a sub 4 ERA gets paid.

But as pointed out, you have to account for the fact that Norris isn't even in the top 10 of available starters next off season. And who might be interested in signing him.

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[Tryptamine]

Ricky Nolasco, Edwin Jackson, Jason Vargas, Scott Feldman, Ubaldo Jimenez - all mediocre pitchers who got 4+yr deals. I think Norris can probably find someone to give him~ 4/40

Ricky Nolasco(31)-Signed his FA deal before 2014 coming off a 3.34FIP and 3.58xFIP 199.1IP 3.1fWAR. 4/$49,No draft pick attached

Edwin Jackson(29)-Signed his FA deal before 2013 coming off a 3.85FIP and 3.79xFIP 175.1IP 2.3fWAR. 4/$52,No draft pick attached

Scott Feldman(31)-Signed his FA deal before 2014 coming off a 4.03FIP and 3.96xFIP 181.2IP 2.0fWAR. 3/$30,No pick attached

Ubaldo Jiminez(30)-Signed his FA deal before 2014 coming off a 3.43FIP and 3.62xFIP 182.2IP 3.3fWAR. 4/$50, Declined QO

This is the year Bud Norris is coming off.

Bud Norris(30)- Coming off a 4.22FIP 3.98xFIP 165IP 1.5fWAR

Bud is not better than any of those pitchers at the time they singed those deals.He had the highest FIP and xFIP of the group, the lowest IP and fWAR, while being tied for the oldest at time of FA signing and oh yes he'll also cost a draft pick. He's most comparable to Scott Feldman who got 3/30 and didn't cost a draft pick.

[birrman54]

Whether a team would sign Norris if he had a pick attached is a separate question from whether Norris would accept a 1yr/16M deal.

You also have to consider that 10 teams don't have to give up their 1st round pick, and they'll tend to be the teams that are out of the running for the top tier of free agents you're comparing Norris to.

I think pitchers are inclined to seek longer term commitments then go year to year. If Norris did accept it the O's are relatively thin in SP next year anyway, so not the worst thing to just have a 1y deal for a 4/5 SP, even if it's relatively expensive. If he declines it and can't find a team then you have the ability to sign him at more favorable terms.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Ricky Nolasco(31)-Signed his FA deal before 2014 coming off a 3.34FIP and 3.58xFIP 199.1IP 3.1fWAR. 4/$49,No draft pick attached

Edwin Jackson(29)-Signed his FA deal before 2013 coming off a 3.85FIP and 3.79xFIP 175.1IP 2.3fWAR. 4/$52,No draft pick attached

Scott Feldman(31)-Signed his FA deal before 2014 coming off a 4.03FIP and 3.96xFIP 181.2IP 2.0fWAR. 3/$30,No pick attached

Ubaldo Jiminez(30)-Signed his FA deal before 2014 coming off a 3.43FIP and 3.62xFIP 182.2IP 3.3fWAR. 4/$50, Declined QO

This is the year Bud Norris is coming off.

Bud Norris(30)- Coming off a 4.22FIP 3.98xFIP 165IP 1.5fWAR

Bud is not better than any of those pitchers at the time they singed those deals.He had the highest FIP and xFIP of the group, the lowest IP and fWAR, while being tied for the oldest at time of FA signing and oh yes he'll also cost a draft pick. He's most comparable to Scott Feldman who got 3/30 and didn't cost a draft pick.

This is a very FIP-centric way to look at thing. Looking at things like ERA+ and rWAR makes the situation more favorable to Norris and far far worse for the guys and seasons you quoted.

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[Tryptamine]

This is a very FIP-centric way to look at thing. Looking at things like ERA+ and rWAR makes the situation more favorable to Norris and far far worse for the guys and seasons you quoted.

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rWAR is a terrible predictive tool because it uses ERA. FIP is a much better predictive tool and would be more relevant to future value.

[Nevermore]

I agree. And Overall like. And I think that's why he won't offer Norris a QO.

If DD were to offer Norris a QO, do you think that Norris would accept it? If so, then Norris (or his agent) are highly unusual. If Os managment intends to allow Norris to go into FA (and presumably let him walk), then at least get the draft pick by offering a QO.

[SteveO]

If DD were to offer Norris a QO, do you think that Norris would accept it? If so, then Norris (or his agent) are highly unusual. If Os managment intends to allow Norris to go into FA (and presumably let him walk), then at least get the draft pick by offering a QO.

Really its all just conjecture till we see what type of game Bud brings to the mound this season. If he can build on last season then it might be possible the Orioles offer him and say Chen a QO in the hopes that attaching that to them may alter their markets value enough that they can retain one of them.

One thing I feel pretty good about though is this, if the Orioles extend a QO to either Chen or Norris, it will be because those guys continued to build on what they have already done and they will likely turn down said QO because of the allure of bigger money in the open market.