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The This Team IS Done, We are Dumb and Nothing can Fix it MEGA THREAD

MagicBird

By MagicBird
in Orioles Talk

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted
My apologies. I can sometimes type much harsher than I mean for it to "sound". I truly didn't mean to insult you or anyone else.

I think I was referring to Bmorechop actually. I did not know I responded to you.

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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I think I was referring to Bmorechop actually. I did not know I responded to you.

I just sent you a message apologizing for my accidental snark (didn't mean to insult, but the smiles and chuckles that go along with the comment are obviously not communicated on the board) and to report that an old username of mine resurfaced in that exchange. I haven't used "bmorechop" in years, or at least I don't think I have. I have no idea how it reappeared. Is there such a thing as ghost cookies?

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted
I just sent you a message apologizing for my accidental snark (didn't mean to insult, but the smiles and chuckles that go along with the comment are obviously not communicated on the board) and to report that an old username of mine resurfaced in that exchange. I haven't used "bmorechop" in years, or at least I don't think I have. I have no idea how it reappeared. Is there such a thing as ghost cookies?

Probably. And it makes sense now that I see it. I will merge it into your current name. Thanks for reaching out.

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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I was on record as not wanting to be be burdened with the type of contract that Cruz, a DH, at the level that Seattle signed him. That said, I was very hopeful for this season that we would make that mistake.

Back to baseball...I just don't think Cruz's contract is that much of a risk given the current market. He is likely to outproduce 14 million the first two years of his deal and may significantly outproduce 14 million this year.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Posted
Back to baseball...I just don't think Cruz's contract is that much of a risk given the current market. He is likely to outproduce 14 million the first two years of his deal and may significantly outproduce 14 million this year.

It's possible that you are right. I believed last May that Nelson would continue at the pace he was at. I thought that he may have used some enhancement when he was with us and that he was careful. I believed that he was playing for the contract that he felt cheated out of. Then he underperformed Chris Davis for three months.

Then he was real good again. When Luke Scott was hot, I never saw a hotter hitter. THen he would go for a month without a hit. I have no idea why any of this happens but as a convicted PED user, I find his history a bit odd. I would not be surprised if he has an extended cold streak this season. Or in the future.

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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It's all a matter of what risk the organization is willing to take. They are paying De Aza, Matusz, and Cabrera ten million this year. I would much rather have invested that money into Cruz and taken the risk of Cruz underperforming the backend of the contract. I think investing ten million into those three guys was a worst investment for a supposedly poor team.

The bolded part of your statement is meaningless. I sure hope the O's organization is not making decisions based on how the OH will react.

I don't believe the team gives two spits about what the oh thinks about any given move. My point was more around the kvetching amongst a certain group about the non-move. I doubt they would

Be happy with the alternative.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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So we're not supposed to sign any free agent hitters who aren't at the level of Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout?

I think his opinion is that relievers and DHs are not entitled to four year contracts at the top end of what their possible value could be.

I also do not think that he advocates for contract length or AAV of Stanton, Fielder, Hamilton, Braun types of deals.

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scOtt Hangout Grand Counsel

scOtt

Posted
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It's all a matter of what risk the organization is willing to take. They are paying De Aza, Matusz, and Cabrera ten million this year. I would much rather have invested that money into Cruz and taken the risk of Cruz underperforming the backend of the contract. I think investing ten million into those three guys was a worst investment for a supposedly poor team.

The bolded part of your statement is meaningless. I sure hope the O's organization is not making decisions based on how the OH will react.

I'd rather spend the 10 on THREE players than 12 on ONE iffy 33 year old coming off a career year.

That's just stupid business.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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As usual you have made a lot of great points in this thread, but your quote is a stretch. Yeah, it is pretty much guaranteed that Cruz will be a producer for the first two years of that contract. He may not be Babe Ruth, but there's a high probability that Cruz will be a MLB leader in OPS+ the first two years of that contract.

I don't know how you can possibly say that. Last year he was 15th in the majors in OPS. And from June-August he had a .214/.283/.398 line. In 2013 he was 39th in OPS, if you lower the qualifying threshold since he didn't have enough PAs. In 2012 he was 71st of 143 qualifiers. In 2011 he was 45th of 145. The idea that he's a guaranteed top player for the next two years is ludicrous - in three of the last four years, in his early 30s, he wasn't in the top 30 players in the league. And that's just on offense! Once you figure in his negative value from defense and baserunning he drops even further in value. It's pure mid-May-20/20-hindsight to say Nelson Cruz was a lock to produce at a league-leading level in 2015-16.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Back to baseball...I just don't think Cruz's contract is that much of a risk given the current market. He is likely to outproduce 14 million the first two years of his deal and may significantly outproduce 14 million this year.

His peak value (peak!) using fWAR from 2011-13 was $9.8M. He wasn't worth $30M over that three-year timeframe. The number of players who're significantly more valuable from 34-36 than from 30-33 are vanishingly small. That goes double if you exclude the 1995-2010ish era, where some players may have had some amount of late-career help.

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