Chen

[Crazysilver03]

Stats don't apply to Feldman. He was abysmal.

How so?

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[Aristotelian]

The key is how much credit Chen gets for his ERA, and how much does his defense and other factors? His peripherals haven't changed much year-to-year. Yes, a roughly average 2-win pitcher gets almost $15M a year in free agency.

True, but you could say the same for Shields and Ervin coming from KC. I would also say that Chen has been used consistently as our #1 or #2 starter in recent years, which gives a sense of how he stacks up against the rest of our staff, holding the defense constant.

[Aristotelian]

Actually I should back off that last sentence. #2 or #3.

[DrungoHazewood]

Could barely, if ever hit 90 and had horrible secondary stuff. He's a glorified junk baller and one of my least favorite Orioles of all time. Watching him pitch was cringe-inducing.

The year he was with the O's his average FB velocity was 89.9 mph, indicating that he often hit 90. And his cutter and curve pitch values were both above average.

[Number5]

I strongly disagree.

The following video perfectly sums up my feelings on Feldman:

You strongly disagree with what? The statistics?

[DrungoHazewood]

You strongly disagree with what? The statistics?

There's probably a non-zero chance that the scorers and stringers were paid off by someone, and when Feldman's pitches were 79 on the gun they actually wrote down/typed in 89 instead. That's gotta be more likely than, well, you know, Fangraphs being right.

[JLee2027]

I hate big contracts like Rick Porcello got because a lot of players stop producing afterwards. The hunger is gone.

But Chen might be different because of his culture. And he's left handed. And he looks to have gradually improved each year. He'll be 30 in July. It's a tough call.

[DrungoHazewood]

I hate big contracts like Rick Porcello got because a lot of players stop producing afterwards. The hunger is gone.

I think the more common case is that free agents sign after a big walk year. Team and new fans expect a repeat of the career season. But the player returns to career norms, or otherwise normally declines with age and the fans cry that the player got complacent and lost his hunger.

[JLee2027]

I think the more common case is that free agents sign after a big walk year. Team and new fans expect a repeat of the career season. But the player returns to career norms, or otherwise normally declines with age and the fans cry that the player got complacent and lost his hunger.

You could be right. It would be an interesting thing to study....including why some guys have that "big year" in the last year before free agency.

[DrungoHazewood]

You could be right. It would be an interesting thing to study....including why some guys have that "big year" in the last year before free agency.

My opinion, is that most players hit free agency in their late 20s or early 30s, so naturally a lot of them are going to have their career year in a walk year. Most players peak between 25-31, concentrated at 27-28. Even the best players lose quite a bit of performance and a great deal of their ability to stay on the field in their early 30s. Buying a 30-year-old free agent is agreeing to take on a player's decline phase. It's almost universally true that a ballplayer will be worse at 35 than they were at 30.

[brianod]

The key is how much credit Chen gets for his ERA, and how much does his defense and other factors? His peripherals haven't changed much year-to-year. Yes, a roughly average 2-win pitcher gets almost $15M a year in free agency.

The stats that make him a "2 win pitcher" aren't sacrosanct. You can accumulate a hundred stats into one and come up with an accurate measure of value. That is the fallacy of all these summary statistics. I'll go by the eye test and say Chen is worth about 12 million a year. He'll get more, so be it.

[DrungoHazewood]

That his secondary pitches were any good. He was a junkballer at best. And I hate his stupid face, as explained in the video I linked to.

At least you have some rational for your decisions.

The key is how much credit Chen gets for his ERA, and how much does his defense and other factors? His peripherals haven't changed much year-to-year. Yes, a roughly average 2-win pitcher gets almost $15M a year in free agency.

The stats that make him a "2 win pitcher" aren't sacrosanct. You can accumulate a hundred stats into one and come up with an accurate measure of value. That is the fallacy of all these summary statistics. I'll go by the eye test and say Chen is worth about 12 million a year. He'll get more, so be it.

In other words, "Trying to use systemic methods and the best available data to come up with values for players is idiotic. So I'll exactly the same thing in an off-the-cuff, made up way and call it superior. Then declare that's not what he's worth to the market, he'll get something a lot like the WAR value, but whatever. Stats are dumb."

[Crazysilver03]

The key is how much credit Chen gets for his ERA, and how much does his defense and other factors? His peripherals haven't changed much year-to-year. Yes, a roughly average 2-win pitcher gets almost $15M a year in free agency.

The stats that make him a "2 win pitcher" aren't sacrosanct. You can accumulate a hundred stats into one and come up with an accurate measure of value. That is the fallacy of all these summary statistics. I'll go by the eye test and say Chen is worth about 12 million a year. He'll get more, so be it.

Does it make you feel better to bash stats every time you post?

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[brianod]

Does it make you feel better to bash stats every time you post?

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Does it make you feel better to assume that a statistic that accumulates every intangible and every possible statistic into value is the be all and end all?

[brianod]

I've watched Chen over three years now, very closely. He's a good number 3. This organization can't afford to give him what others can. That's the bottom line. I don't need a summary stat to tell me his worth, I've seen it.