Stan "The Fan" Charles: Failing To Re-Sign Chris Davis Could Set Orioles Back For Years

[weams]

You said good pitchers have an easy time striking out Davis four times a game. I showed you lots of good pitchers he's had success against. Would you like to do a more comprehensive study?

This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps!

[Stotle]

You have me on Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Sox.

Cubs and Astros too, unless you believe those 5 first round picks tied to poor records are the reason those teams have deep systems.

[Tx Oriole]

Agree with the sentiment here that Machado is the guy to get locked up long-term. I would love to see Davis back, but we aren't going to have the money to pay him 20+ million per year. Ain't gonna happen.

Would like Davis to be back but @20 million a year no. Manny is more important.

[Redskins Rick]

Would like Davis to be back but @20 million a year no. Manny is more important.

Agree, people lose focus on reality around here sometimes.

Personally, I love his ability to come up big when the team needs it.

But, at what cost, 20 million, just aint going to happen, this is the Dodgers.

[Can_of_corn]

Cubs and Astros too, unless you believe those 5 first round picks tied to poor records are the reason those teams have deep systems.

I think picking early in every round and being able to reallocate funds from the major league roster to other parts of the organization certainly helped the Astros.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think picking early in every round and being able to reallocate funds from the major league roster to other parts of the organization certainly helped the Astros.

The Orioles of a decade ago were in a somewhat similar situation, but they tried an alternate approach. They took the $20M the Astros used for beefing up development and gave it to Jay Payton and Kevin Millar.

[clapdiddy]

The Orioles of a decade ago were in a somewhat similar situation, but they tried an alternate approach. They took the $20M the Astros used for beefing up development and gave it to Jay Payton and Kevin Millar.

These two could be the beginning of a long, long list of misfires from those days. It hurts to think about it.

[Stotle]

I think picking early in every round and being able to reallocate funds from the major league roster to other parts of the organization certainly helped the Astros.

The difference is the first pick, if you want to line up the opportunities (BAL 1st vs Astros 2nd, etc.). If the difference between Houston's and Chicago's respective systems, when compared to Baltimore's, was those first overall selections, I'd agree. Though a number of those picks are not technically prospects. I don't see a substantive difference between Baltimore selecting Manny in the top five, Chicago selecting Bryant, and Houston selecting Correa.

[weams]

Cubs and Astros too, unless you believe those 5 first round picks tied to poor records are the reason those teams have deep systems.

I do believe that. Yes.

[weams]

The Orioles of a decade ago were in a somewhat similar situation, but they tried an alternate approach. They took the $20M the Astros used for beefing up development and gave it to Jay Payton and Kevin Millar.

And that front office was whacked. It was.

[DrungoHazewood]

And that front office was whacked. It was.

It's one thing to sign Jay Payton if you're an 80-something win team, you have a hole in left and your analytics department said he's a +10 fielder. But I'm pretty sure the Orioles of that era didn't really have an analytics department, they had holes at seven positions, and they couldn't/wouldn't spend that $7M on the development system. So they said what the heck.

[Stotle]

I do believe that. Yes.

[okay, fixed]

You cited 2010-2014...

In 2010 Baltimore selected Machado 3rd overall.

In 2011 Baltimore selected Bundy 4th overall.

In 2012 Baltimore selected Gausman 4th overall.

So let me rephrase...

Cubs and Astros too, unless you believe the first round picks in 2013, 2014, and two months ago are the reason those teams have deep systems.

And I'll clarify again, that the aggregate difference is just that first pick, since we'll loosely go ahead and say BAL 1st = HOU/CHN 2nd, etc.

Those first round picks in 2013/2014/2015 for Houston and Chicago were:

HOU - Appel in 2013; Aiken (unsigned) in 2014; Bregman/Tucker in 2015

CHN - Bryant in 2013; Schwarber in 2014; Ian Happ in 2015

Those six guys are what separates the three systems? Bryant (and soon Schwarber) are not prospects anymore. The Cubs system still beats out Baltimore's by a fair margin.

[Can_of_corn]

The difference is the first pick, if you want to line up the opportunities (BAL 1st vs Astros 2nd, etc.). If the difference between Houston's and Chicago's respective systems, when compared to Baltimore's, was those first overall selections, I'd agree. Though a number of those picks are not technically prospects. I don't see a substantive difference between Baltimore selecting Manny in the top five, Chicago selecting Bryant, and Houston selecting Correa.

Sorry, not agreeing with you here.

First off getting higher picks in each round gives more of an cumulative advantage beyond just the first round pick.

Secondly the larger pool allotment awarded a team with higher picks is an advantage.

Thirdly I did also mention the financial flexibility the Astros had when they cut MLB payroll to the bones. That allowed them to reallocate those assets elsewhere. A consistently mediocre team like the Orioles of the last decade was wasting substantial funds in a quest for relevance.

[Stotle]

Sorry, not agreeing with you here.

First off getting higher picks in each round gives more of an cumulative advantage beyond just the first round pick.

Secondly the larger pool allotment awarded a team with higher picks is an advantage.

Thirdly I did also mention the financial flexibility the Astros had when they cut MLB payroll to the bones. That allowed them to reallocate those assets elsewhere. A consistently mediocre team like the Orioles of the last decade was wasting substantial funds in a quest for relevance.

Baltimore drafted in the top five picks in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Financial flexibility? I guess so. But I doubt that Houston has poured millions upon millions into development and THAT has been the key to realizing better prospects.

With respect to drafting earlier/larger bonus pools it comes down to that first pick and then any saved money Houston got from that first pick. Fine, I'm willing to include the "saved money spent elsewhere", even without noting after that initial pick Baltimore is selecting before, and getting more money for, every pick that follows. If you think that advantage is the difference between what Houston has built on the farm and what Baltimore has built on the farm then I guess we can just agree to disagree.

I don't think you believe that. I think, if pressed, you'd say Baltimore trading away picks, not signing significant international J2 talent, and trading away prospects, is the difference between the two systems.

Houston anchored it's Parra deal with Brett Phillips -- 6th Rounder from 2012. Houston getting Phillips is a product of scouting, analytics, draft strategy, and luck. Not the fact that they were picking at the start of the 6th Round instead of the back.

[Can_of_corn]

Baltimore drafted in the top five picks in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Financial flexibility? I guess so. But I doubt that Houston has poured millions upon millions into development and THAT has been the key to realizing better prospects.

With respect to drafting earlier/larger bonus pools it comes down to that first pick and then any saved money Houston got from that first pick. Fine, I'm willing to include the "saved money spent elsewhere", even without noting after that initial pick Baltimore is selecting before, and getting more money for, every pick that follows. If you think that advantage is the difference between what Houston has built on the farm and what Baltimore has built on the farm then I guess we can just agree to disagree.

I don't think you believe that. I think, if pressed, you'd say Baltimore trading away picks, not signing significant international J2 talent, and trading away prospects, is the difference between the two systems.

Houston anchored it's Parra deal with Brett Phillips -- 6th Rounder from 2012. Houston getting Phillips is a product of scouting, analytics, draft strategy, and luck. Not the fact that they were picking at the start of the 6th Round instead of the back.

I'd say that everything I listed AND everything you listed are factors. I also like some of the things the Astros are doing developmentally.