Why trade Roberts?

[Sports Guy]

Actually we won't see. Not ever.

If Roberts is traded in 4 months for something better than the Cubs' offer, then folks will see that as validation for the decision not to trade Roberts this past offseason.

But that's not what it would be. What it would be is a case of beating the odds.

Someone else said it best: even bad decisions can have good outcomes. Hitting on 18 and pulling a 3. That still doesn't make the bad decision a good one.

THis is 100% right...Similar outcome/argument in the case of Trax last year.

[Frobby]

Actually we won't see. Not ever.

If Roberts is traded in 4 months for something better than the Cubs' offer, then folks will see that as validation for the decision not to trade Roberts this past offseason.

But that's not what it would be. What it would be is a case of beating the odds.

Someone else said it best: even bad decisions can have good outcomes. Hitting on 18 and pulling a 3. That still doesn't make the bad decision a good one.

Congratulations on setting your argument up in a way that it can't be disproved. It's your opinion that the odds are against the O's getting a better deal in 4 months. So if the O's do get a better deal, then your opinion is still correct (in your mind) because it just shows the Os got lucky after a poor decision.

I'm not saying your opinion is wrong, but someone with the opposite opinion also can't be proved to be wrong if the Os can't make a better deal come July.

My opinion is that MacPhail is taking a calculated risk and I'm willing to trust his judgment.

[WebLink21]

Congratulations on setting your argument up in a way that it can't be disproved. It's your opinion that the odds are against the O's getting a better deal in 4 months. So if the O's do get a better deal, then your opinion is still correct (in your mind) because it just shows the Os got lucky after a poor decision.

I'm not saying your opinion is wrong, but someone with the opposite opinion also can't be proved to be wrong if the Os can't make a better deal come July.

My opinion is that MacPhail is taking a calculated risk and I'm willing to trust his judgment.

Very well said IMO

[RShack]

Are they panicking on the Northside yet? Are they booing yet?

(Not being a smartass, this is a real question.)

Nobody answered.

So I looked... and found this:

During Wednesday's loss, the Cubs made two errors, watched Milwaukee steal three bases and heard some boos at Wrigley Field. And as soon as it was over, Piniella announced he was already making a lineup change by moving Alfonso Soriano -- who is 0-for-9 -- back into the leadoff spot from No. 2 in the order.

So, I guess the answer would be "Yep... after 2 games..."

[davearm]

Congratulations on setting your argument up in a way that it can't be disproved. It's your opinion that the odds are against the O's getting a better deal in 4 months. So if the O's do get a better deal, then your opinion is still correct (in your mind) because it just shows the Os got lucky after a poor decision.

I'm not saying your opinion is wrong, but someone with the opposite opinion also can't be proved to be wrong if the Os can't make a better deal come July.

My opinion is that MacPhail is taking a calculated risk and I'm willing to trust his judgment.

Hey man this is just an inherent truth in probabalistic analysis. Put simply, the ends don't justify the means.

I surely didn't make the world work this way.

As for my opinion that the odds are against the O's getting a better deal in 4 months: I don't see anyone disagreeing.

[Fan4Life]

Congratulations on setting your argument up in a way that it can't be disproved. It's your opinion that the odds are against the O's getting a better deal in 4 months. So if the O's do get a better deal, then your opinion is still correct (in your mind) because it just shows the Os got lucky after a poor decision.

I'm not saying your opinion is wrong, but someone with the opposite opinion also can't be proved to be wrong if the Os can't make a better deal come July.

My opinion is that MacPhail is taking a calculated risk and I'm willing to trust his judgment.

I'm saying it's wrong. at least in my opinion. I am in the minority, but the "rumored" deal doesn't blow me away... I can take it or leave it... if AM gets more later than what is "rumored" now, that's his job and he deserves the credit for it... I'm sure the critics will be waiting in line to spout off if he comes back with less than what's "rumored".. you can't have it both ways..

I realize I basically said what you just said... but I needed to say it..

[IamtheSkip]

Nobody answered.

So I looked... and found this:

So, I guess the answer would be "Yep... after 2 games..."

If you're in the "trade Roberts" club, then keep rooting for stuff like that, and the Brewers in general.

The Cubs have no real leadoff hitter. Theriot doing it (at least on a team that intend to make a run at the World Series) is laughable. Soriano needs to be in the middle of the order with guys on base. Putting him up top will not solve the problems.

To the point, Chicago really does need Brian Roberts. Will he guarantee a thing? No. But will he make the team better? Without a doubt.

IF the Cubs struggle into June, they will have to crack and try to acquire him.

[wildcard]

I don't think anyone is disagreeing because hardly anyone can figure out how to answer that riddle.

Plainly put, MacPhail turned down whatever deal the Cubs offered. If he trades Roberts anytime this season it will be because someone offerred a better deal. There is basically no reason the trade Roberts unless a better deal is offered.

Teams that need a leadoff hitter will have to judge if what MacPhail will asking for in future talent is worth what Roberts offers them in improvement to their team in this year and next year's pennant races. We will have to wait and see if that happens.

[WebLink21]

Hey man this is just an inherent truth in probabalistic analysis. Put simply, the ends don't justify the means.

I surely didn't make the world work this way.

As for my opinion that the odds are against the O's getting a better deal in 4 months: I don't see anyone disagreeing.

I disagree. We may not get the quantity that The Cubs offered, but we can definitely get a more quality deal. I would take one top prospect and one high upside package over those 4 "may work out" prospects. I think that will be the type of deal that we will end up getting. I say this the same way I would say that a deal of Pie and Gall are a better deal to me than the 4 "may work out" prospects. I think we need one really good prospect in the "Jones" mold to deal Roberts and I just don't see that in those 4. I see some that could be something, but nothing really above that. I say this also after watching a game the other day that had Cedeno in it. I thought he looked pretty good to be honest. I still don't put him as anything more than a "may work out" prospect though.

[davearm]

If you're in the "trade Roberts" club, then keep rooting for stuff like that, and the Brewers in general.

The Cubs have no real leadoff hitter. Theriot doing it (at least on a team that intend to make a run at the World Series) is laughable. Soriano needs to be in the middle of the order with guys on base. Putting him up top will not solve the problems.

To the point, Chicago really does need Brian Roberts. Will he guarantee a thing? No. But will he make the team better? Without a doubt.

IF the Cubs struggle into June, they will have to crack and try to acquire him.

If the Cubs struggle into June, then they are more likely to be scrambling to fix problems with their SS and/or rotation and/or CF, IMO.

Soriano as the leadoff hitter and DeRosa as the 2B will probably be further down the list of issues, or not on the list at all.

[Frobby]

I'm saying it's wrong. at least in my opinion. I am in the minority, but the "rumored" deal doesn't blow me away... I can take it or leave it... if AM gets more later than what is "rumored" now, that's his job and he deserves the credit for it... I'm sure the critics will be waiting in line to spout off if he comes back with less than what's "rumored".. you can't have it both ways..

I realize I basically said what you just said... but I needed to say it..

You raise an important point here. Let's say the odds that MacPhail can get a better deal in July are only 1 out of 3. Does that mean he should do a deal now? Well, it depends. If he judges that the deal on the table now doesn't improve the team all that much over the long run, then the answer is that he should wait and take his 1 in 3 chance of a better deal in July. If he judges that the deal now offered would improve the team in the long run by quite a bit, just not as much as he'd really like, well then that is a different calculus.

In my opinion, we're in the first scenario here, not the second. So I don't mind if MacPhail rolls the dice even if the odds are less than 50-50 that he'll do better in July.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Forget waterboarding, I think we should force terrorists to read every OH thread about Roberts this offseason until they gave up the goods.

Or would that be considered unconstitutional as cruel and unusual punishment?

[hoosiers]

Congratulations on setting your argument up in a way that it can't be disproved. It's your opinion that the odds are against the O's getting a better deal in 4 months. So if the O's do get a better deal, then your opinion is still correct (in your mind) because it just shows the Os got lucky after a poor decision.

I'm not saying your opinion is wrong, but someone with the opposite opinion also can't be proved to be wrong if the Os can't make a better deal come July.

My opinion is that MacPhail is taking a calculated risk and I'm willing to trust his judgment.

This is the post that is 100% right.

Some might view the risk that AM is taking is that over the next two years, he might fail to find a deal that represents better talent that the Cubs offer. What about the possibility that AM feels he is just not getting appropriate value for BRob - regardless of whether the deal may or may not be topped in the future by another team -and just flat out does not want to do the deal at this time.

Frankly, if the downside of holding on to BRob for a better offer is two high draft picks and two years of quality production from BRob, I've no problem whatsoever to the calculated risk AM is taking waiting for a better deal.

[Scrat1]

If the Cubs struggle into June, then they are more likely to be scrambling to fix problems with their SS and/or rotation and/or CF, IMO.

Soriano as the leadoff hitter and DeRosa as the 2B will probably be further down the list of issues, or not on the list at all.

I'm not quick to jump into these back and forths, but I have to disagree here.

Soriano as a lead-off man is a huge mistake. He's got too much power and only a mediocre obp (.337 last season) to be an effective lead-off man. You have to play to his strengths, and he is not suited for lead-off. Yes, he's fast. Yes, he's got a pretty solid average. But that's about it. Now imagine if Roberts were in front of him. The boost to the team would be enormous. Teams with great lead-off men practically build around them: Phillies, Seattle, Mets. The Cubs aren't going to be able to put a legitimate run at the title without using their players properly.

Looking at the 2007 numbers show the Cubs with the 4th best ERA (4.04) but 18th in run production (752). Roberts could be the boost they need. Look at Seattle, by no means a team full of power hitters. They had less doubles, less triples, only 2 more home runs (153 vs. 151) but they were 12th with run production at (794). How much of that do you think was because of Ichiro's presence? I bet quite a bit. He gets on base, steals or gets moved over and someone hits some dinker and gets him in.

The Cubs may think the price for Roberts is steep (and they're right) but at the same time, if they aren't willing to take the plunge and make some risks, they're not going to get the title. Isn't that what this year is supposed to be about?

More eloquent than me:

http://blog.stats.com/2008/03/no_cubs_trade_for_2b_roberts_h.html

[allstar1579]

If the Cubs struggle into June, then they are more likely to be scrambling to fix problems with their SS and/or rotation and/or CF, IMO.

Soriano as the leadoff hitter and DeRosa as the 2B will probably be further down the list of issues, or not on the list at all.

So ok, 2 part question then, which do you think is a better option in center? Johnson or Pie? Do you think they deal Pie (before his trade value diminishes) in a deal that they can get a SS/2B/CF/SP that they feel will help them?

It's very early, but if the stars align and the Reds start making the move that they have the young talent to make, do you think they panic and have to pull off a blockbuster ala Houston in 04?