Why trade Roberts?

[Pruke]

This thread has degenerated into a 'simple stirring of the proverbial pot'.

The reality of this situation is that if Roberts continues to produce, a contending team will be very interested in picking him up if that's still part of the plan.

Given that it will likely be a contending team, this, in all likelihood rules out the Cubs - especially given the NL analytical insight we've seen posted regarding their lack of need for a legitimate leadoff hitter.

I think it's more likely that this will end up being a surprise team like the WS (given previous interest per Sonny76), or even some other team we've not even considered.

Not sure why we continue to have the disagreements on this topic - who cares... Hey - I have no problem saying I think he deserves a better destination than north side anyways.

[Cubsfan]

This thread has degenerated into a 'simple stirring of the proverbial pot'.

The reality of this situation is that if Roberts continues to produce, a contending team will be very interested in picking him up if that's still part of the plan.

Given that it will likely be a contending team, this, in all likelihood rules out the Cubs - especially given the NL analytical insight we've seen posted regarding their lack of need for a legitimate leadoff hitter.

I think it's more likely that this will end up being a surprise team like the WS (given previous interest per Sonny76), or even some other team we've not even considered.

Not sure why we continue to have the disagreements on this topic - who cares... Hey - I have no problem saying I think he deserves a better destination than north side anyways.

Everyone agrees that if Roberts keeps producing, a contending team will be interested in picking him up. The discussion always involved what a midseason offer might be for him. History has shown that the return at midseason is usually less than offseason. I don't think any Cub fan ever disagreed that Roberts would be a big plus for the Cubs batting leadoff, it was always a matter of how much to offer for Roberts. If you think the White Sox fit your description of a contending team, then you have some serious problems. Also, the White Sox have next to nothing left in their farm system to offer at midseason. Finally, I can't see how you could find a better destination for Roberts than the north side. Over the years, players have said that their favorite years are the ones spent at Wrigley Field. Players from other teams have often said they wish they could play for the Cubs before they retire. Brian Roberts would be idolized in Chicago.

[El Gordo]

Everyone agrees that if Roberts keeps producing, a contending team will be interested in picking him up. The discussion always involved what a midseason offer might be for him. History has shown that the return at midseason is usually less than offseason. I don't think any Cub fan ever disagreed that Roberts would be a big plus for the Cubs batting leadoff, it was always a matter of how much to offer for Roberts. If you think the White Sox fit your description of a contending team, then you have some serious problems. Also, the White Sox have next to nothing left in their farm system to offer at midseason. Finally, I can't see how you could find a better destination for Roberts than the north side. Over the years, players have said that their favorite years are the ones spent at Wrigley Field. Players from other teams have often said they wish they could play for the Cubs before they retire. Brian Roberts would be idolized in Chicago.

He's idolized in B'more now. The main reason BRob wants to be traded is because he wants to win. Why would he want to go to a club that hasn't won in a 100 years and isn't going to do so this year as well. Maybe the Rox offer us Nelson and Stewart at the deadline, if they are istill in it. That would be better than the Cubs offer IMO.

[cindyluvsbrady]

Everyone agrees that if Roberts keeps producing, a contending team will be interested in picking him up. The discussion always involved what a midseason offer might be for him. History has shown that the return at midseason is usually less than offseason. I don't think any Cub fan ever disagreed that Roberts would be a big plus for the Cubs batting leadoff, it was always a matter of how much to offer for Roberts. If you think the White Sox fit your description of a contending team, then you have some serious problems. Also, the White Sox have next to nothing left in their farm system to offer at midseason. Finally, I can't see how you could find a better destination for Roberts than the north side. Over the years, players have said that their favorite years are the ones spent at Wrigley Field. Players from other teams have often said they wish they could play for the Cubs before they retire. Brian Roberts would be idolized in Chicago.[/quote

Go away:(You cant have My Perfect one!!

[Cubsfan]

He's idolized in B'more now. The main reason BRob wants to be traded is because he wants to win. Why would he want to go to a club that hasn't won in a 100 years and isn't going to do so this year as well. Maybe the Rox offer us Nelson and Stewart at the deadline, if they are istill in it. That would be better than the Cubs offer IMO.

Well, the Cubs certainly have a better shot at winning than the O's. As for being idolized in Baltimore, I think he would enjoy being encouraged by 40,000 fans everyday rather than 6,500. As for the Rockies offering Nelson and Stewart, good luck and keep hoping that somebody will make a decent offer for him.

[ChaosLex]

As for the Rockies offering Nelson and Stewart, good luck and keep hoping that somebody will make a decent offer for him.

We will. And until then, we'll enjoy having an All-Star 2B and arguably the best leadoff hitter in the league on our team.

[Sports Guy]

Well, the Cubs certainly have a better shot at winning than the O's. As for being idolized in Baltimore, I think he would enjoy being encouraged by 40,000 fans everyday rather than 6,500. As for the Rockies offering Nelson and Stewart, good luck and keep hoping that somebody will make a decent offer for him.

What place do those players have on the Rockies?

[davearm]

Preconceived and antiquated? That a lead-off hitter should have a high on base percentage? Call me old fashioned then.

OK, so maybe you are right (although I don't think so) that Soriano's production will be higher at lead-off than elsewhere in the line-up. Even if I grant you that, which I don't have to, the Cubs as a team are sacrificing runs for an individual's stats. If at lead-off Soriano pelts out 5, even 10 more home-runs with a batting avg 30 points higher or so than if he were at the number 2 slot, the Cubs would still get more runs if a guy like Roberts were in front of him.

Fortunately we don't just have to take your speculation as truth. We've got a neat lineup analyzer tool from Baseball Musings to rely on to see if Roberts leading off is worth having Soriano's numbers suffer.

Here's Lineup #1, with Soriano leading off and putting up his career OBP and SLG numbers from the leadoff spot (.341 and .551), and Roberts hitting second. According to the model, this lineup yields 5.196 runs per game, or 842 in a 162 game season.

Here's Lineup #2, with Roberts leading off, and Soriano in the #5 hole, producing at his career rates of .312 OBP and .513 SLG. This one yields 5.104 runs per game, or 827 total.

And finally here's Lineup #3, with Soriano in the 3 hole at .310 and .452. This one comes in at 5.035 runs per game, or 816 total.

So your incorrect intuition costs the team between 15 and 26 runs a year.

[Old#5fan]

To tell you the truth I am starting to re-think the trading of BR. Not only is he one of the best leadoff hitters in the game he would be extremely difficult to replace. I am thinking maybe they should keep him unless overwhelmed with an offer.

[RShack]

Fortunately we don't just have to take your speculation as truth. We've got a neat lineup analyzer tool from Baseball Musings to rely on to see if Roberts leading off is worth having Soriano's numbers suffer.

Here's Lineup #1, with Soriano leading off and putting up his career OBP and SLG numbers from the leadoff spot (.341 and .551), and Roberts hitting second. According to the model, this lineup yields 5.196 runs per game, or 842 in a 162 game season.

Here's Lineup #2, with Roberts leading off, and Soriano in the #5 hole, producing at his career rates of .312 OBP and .513 SLG. This one yields 5.104 runs per game, or 827 total.

And finally here's Lineup #3, with Soriano in the 3 hole at .310 and .452. This one comes in at 5.035 runs per game, or 816 total.

So your incorrect intuition costs the team between 15 and 26 runs a year.

You're assuming that the "Lineup Analyzer from Baseball Musings" can predict what actually happens. Surely, you know better than to believe that silliness.

There are a zillion variables and interactions that it can't see, much less cope with. This is an intractable problem, no matter what cute tools you can get from Baseball Musings...

[SceffBmo]

To tell you the truth I am starting to re-think the trading of BR. Not only is he one of the best leadoff hitters in the game he would be extremely difficult to replace. I am thinking maybe they should keep him unless overwhelmed with an offer.

I agree, plus he's only 31 y/o and guys like Henderson and Lofton were still stealing bases in their forties. We saw the other when Mora got fed a meatball because the pitcher was to worried about BRob dancing around at first. If we lose that, who's gonna take his place ? It's hard to find true leadoff hitters these days and I don't feel like waiting for God knows how long til we find another one.

[davearm]

You're assuming that the "Lineup Analyzer from Baseball Musings" can predict what actually happens. Surely, you know better than to believe that silliness.

There are a zillion variables and interactions that it can't see, much less cope with. This is an intractable problem, no matter what cute tools you can get from Baseball Musings...

You're free to throw up your hands and say baseball's just too complicated, and there's no way to predict what actually happens, so let's not even try.

Just don't criticize the rest of us who are not nearly so easily defeated.

[RShack]

You're free to throw up your hands and say baseball's just too complicated, and there's no way to predict what actually happens, so let's not even try.

Just don't criticize the rest of us who are not nearly so easily defeated.

So, you're fighting the brave fight by using the cute lil "Lineup Analyzer from Baseball Musings"?

And doing that shows that you're not "easily defeated"?

Do I have that right?

I'd never criticize somebody being brave ;-)

[jonny2fngrs]

You're assuming that the "Lineup Analyzer from Baseball Musings" can predict what actually happens. Surely, you know better than to believe that silliness.

There are a zillion variables and interactions that it can't see, much less cope with. This is an intractable problem, no matter what cute tools you can get from Baseball Musings...

I didn't see anywhere where that assumption was being made. As far as what cute tools can do, check this out. Not sure if you are a poker player or not but the Jonny2fngrs Poker Prognosticator states that AA will beat KK more times than not. If you don't believe that silliness let me know where we can meet and I will bring a deck of cards and a pocket full of $$

[RShack]

I didn't see anywhere where that assumption was being made.

Don't know what post you were reading.

What he said was, "So your incorrect intuition costs the team between 15 and 26 runs a year."

And that was based on the cute little Baseball Musings tool.