Perlozzoed

[clapdiddy]

I don't have the problem with leaving Cabrera in the game in the 7th.

The move that I have the problem with was bringing in Bradford to face Ramirez. Ramirez was hitting over .500 against him. Heck...I would've even left Walker in to face him, as he's be pitching pretty well against righties.

[tywright]

I was at the game so I didn't see a replay, but how close was Gomez's throw to 1st after he tagged 3rd?

No one knows? Thanks guys

[clapdiddy]

No one knows? Thanks guys

Sorry...from all of us!

It was a very close play, but Lowell clearly beat it. Hope that's good enough!

[LookitsPuck]

Walker has a horrible career against Ortiz, and what does Perlozzo do? Put him in to face Ortiz, because? Durrrr, lefty. vs. lefty matchup.

Ortiz gets a hit, Bradford comes on to face Ramirez, even though Ramirez's history against Bradford is wonderful, because? Durrrr, righty vs. righty matchup.

UGH!!!!!!

[Whatever0]

Walker has a horrible career against Ortiz, and what does Perlozzo do? Put him in to face Ortiz, because? Durrrr, lefty. vs. lefty matchup.

Ortiz gets a hit, Bradford comes on to face Ramirez, even though Ramirez's history against Bradford is wonderful, because? Durrrr, righty vs. righty matchup.

UGH!!!!!!

Bringing in Walker was absolutely the right thing to do. Walker shuts down lefties(.226/.266/.346 is the line for LH hitters facing him from 2004-2006), and Ortiz is almost a mere mortal against them (.277/.351/.540 from 2004-06, versus .306/.419/.654 against RH pitching). That's a massive split that is worth bringing in the LOOGY to take advantage of, especially in a situation like this.

Walker's "history" against Ortiz is 12 plate appearances. Ortiz hit .500, with 4 HRs, no walks, and no strikeouts. First, the odds of Ortiz reaching base the past three years has been 39%. To greatly simplify the following calculations, I'll assume that's his true skill level. That means the odds of him getting on base 6 or more times in 12 PAs against an average pitcher is 30.8%.

Now, obviously, all hits are not created equal. 4 HRs is a big deal. Over the past three years, Ortiz has hit a HR in 7% of his ABs. The probability of him hitting 4 or more HRs in 12 arbitrary plate appearances is .75%, or one out of every 133 times. Now, that seems like long odds. However, look at the number of pitchers Ortiz has faced in his career. He has double-digit ABs against 108 pitchers. That means that, if all pitchers were average, the probability that at least one pitcher would have that ugly a HR split against Ortiz, at some point in their career, would be 55.5%.

Just look at the batter vs. pitcher splits, especially for guys who have about 10 appearances. Ortiz example: he has a .231/.353/.231 against Bruce Chen in 13 ABs, and a .389/.421/.611/1.032 line against Mariano Rivera. Who would you rather have on the mound against him?

Batter versus pitcher splits are pretty much completely worthless.

[LookitsPuck]

Batter versus pitcher splits are worthless, but lefty vs. lefty splits or righty vs. righty spllits aren't?

I'm for the usage of each. When someone sees someone particularly well (lol Cabrera vs. Cora), it'll show.

I still wouldn't have put Walker in to face Ortiz, just as well I wouldn't have left Cabrera in there to face Youkilis. Just me. I definitely wouldn't have put in Bradford to face Manny.

[Skywalker76]

I really wonder isn't there anybody in the dugout who could tell/ teach Perlozzo certain things? I mean isn't Mazzone always sitting there and couldn't he or any of the other coaches in the dugout tell him not to use that pitcher etc...

I don't understand it.

[DrungoHazewood]

Bringing in Walker was absolutely the right thing to do. Walker shuts down lefties(.226/.266/.346 is the line for LH hitters facing him from 2004-2006), and Ortiz is almost a mere mortal against them (.277/.351/.540 from 2004-06, versus .306/.419/.654 against RH pitching). That's a massive split that is worth bringing in the LOOGY to take advantage of, especially in a situation like this.

Walker's "history" against Ortiz is 12 plate appearances. Ortiz hit .500, with 4 HRs, no walks, and no strikeouts. First, the odds of Ortiz reaching base the past three years has been 39%. To greatly simplify the following calculations, I'll assume that's his true skill level. That means the odds of him getting on base 6 or more times in 12 PAs against an average pitcher is 30.8%.

Now, obviously, all hits are not created equal. 4 HRs is a big deal. Over the past three years, Ortiz has hit a HR in 7% of his ABs. The probability of him hitting 4 or more HRs in 12 arbitrary plate appearances is .75%, or one out of every 133 times. Now, that seems like long odds. However, look at the number of pitchers Ortiz has faced in his career. He has double-digit ABs against 108 pitchers. That means that, if all pitchers were average, the probability that at least one pitcher would have that ugly a HR split against Ortiz, at some point in their career, would be 55.5%.

Just look at the batter vs. pitcher splits, especially for guys who have about 10 appearances. Ortiz example: he has a .231/.353/.231 against Bruce Chen in 13 ABs, and a .389/.421/.611/1.032 line against Mariano Rivera. Who would you rather have on the mound against him?

Batter versus pitcher splits are pretty much completely worthless.

I'm all for making sure you have statistical significance in the numbers you use, but when a guy has four homers in 12 at bats against your pitcher, that's something I'd be willing to ignore the small sample on and go with a hunch. This team has three lefties in the pen - Walker isn't the only one. But he is the only one he has a history of absolutely beating the crap out of. Just for the heck of it I'd use someone else.

Same thing with Bradford/Ramirez. Perlozzo has eight relievers at his disposal. Why use the ones that have an exceptionally poor history against the batters you're matching up with?

Statistical insignificance doesn't equal "gonna get the guy out". It means we don't have confidence in the numbers just yet. And when you have an OPS of, like, 3.978 against Chad Bradford and there are other available options, I'd try someone else on the off chance that this is a case where a small sample really is representative of the truth.

[Frobby]

I have no problem with the decision to use Walker, just based on how well he has thrown the ball so far this season. Bradford to me is more problematic, both because of his numbers vs. Ramirez and just the general feeling that he hasn't been that sharp in the early going.

[Sports Guy]

I have no problem with the decision to use Walker, just based on how well he has thrown the ball so far this season. Bradford to me is more problematic, both because of his numbers vs. Ramirez and just the general feeling that he hasn't been that sharp in the early going.

I feel the same way although Parrish over Walker seems like the smarter move.

[Fan4Life]

And keep in mind that Ortiz's hit wan't exactly something to brag about. Walker did his job, just didn't get the results.

[Whatever0]

I'm all for making sure you have statistical significance in the numbers you use, but when a guy has four homers in 12 at bats against your pitcher, that's something I'd be willing to ignore the small sample on and go with a hunch. This team has three lefties in the pen - Walker isn't the only one. But he is the only one he has a history of absolutely beating the crap out of. Just for the heck of it I'd use someone else.

Same thing with Bradford/Ramirez. Perlozzo has eight relievers at his disposal. Why use the ones that have an exceptionally poor history against the batters you're matching up with?

Statistical insignificance doesn't equal "gonna get the guy out". It means we don't have confidence in the numbers just yet. And when you have an OPS of, like, 3.978 against Chad Bradford and there are other available options, I'd try someone else on the off chance that this is a case where a small sample really is representative of the truth.

Parrish threw 33 pitches the night before, and struggled. He's worked a ton this year after being injured the past two years: it's reasonable to consider him unavailable. The only other LH bullpen pitcher the Os had was Burress, who really isn't very good. Although it was only 26 innings last year, he gave up a .299/.405/.439/.844 line to LH hitters, with 5.54 BB/9 and 4.85 K/9. The other four pitchers were Ray, Baez, Bradford, and Johnson. Johnson isn't very good to begin with, and he struggles even more against lefties: 5.79 K/9, .278/.344/.406 allowed last year at AA. Baez last 3 years against LH:.271/.338/.408. Ray: .221/.314/.448. Bradford:.295/.402/.388. Ortiz has a huge split: he loses .70 points of OBP and .100 points of SLG against left-handers versus right-handers: so there's no reason to believe the pitchers splits won't continue. Going from Walker to Baez against a lefty is a .130 OPS jump, it's a .146 one to Ray, and a .178 to Bradford. The difference between Walker and Baez is almost exactly the difference between Mora and Fahey last year, and the other options are even worse. That is too big an advantage to throw away based on 12 ABs. I also think it's worth noting that Walker did pitch well: Ortiz had to foul off 3 two-strike pitches before he managed to hit a single.

I'm not saying that there is never a good reason to use batter/pitcher splits. I am saying that there are a ton of perfectly valid reasons for Perlozzo to put in Walker there: you can second guess the decision, but there are good arguments that it was the right one. It certainly pales compared to the other mistakes discussed in this thread.

There's a difference between general second-guessing and Monday-Morning-Quarterbacking, and pointing out obvious blunders. Arguing about putting in Walker against Ortiz is pretty obviously the first case, as opposed to most of this thread, which is about the second. It certainly doesn't deserve an "UGH!!!", and using lefty/lefty splits instead of pitcher/hitter matchups is hardly worth a "durrr". Perlozzo gets enough flak for real mistakes: he shouldn't be jumped on for making a reasonable decision.

[Sports Guy]

Parrish threw 33 pitches the night before, and struggled. He's worked a ton this year after being injured the past two years: it's reasonable to consider him unavailable. The only other LH bullpen pitcher the Os had was Burress, who really isn't very good. Although it was only 26 innings last year, he gave up a .299/.405/.439/.844 line to LH hitters, with 5.54 BB/9 and 4.85 K/9. The other four pitchers were Ray, Baez, Bradford, and Johnson. Johnson isn't very good to begin with, and he struggles even more against lefties: 5.79 K/9, .278/.344/.406 allowed last year at AA. Baez last 3 years against LH:.271/.338/.408. Ray: .221/.314/.448. Bradford:.295/.402/.388. Ortiz has a huge split: he loses .70 points of OBP and .100 points of SLG against left-handers versus right-handers: so there's no reason to believe the pitchers splits won't continue. Going from Walker to Baez against a lefty is a .130 OPS jump, it's a .146 one to Ray, and a .178 to Bradford. The difference between Walker and Baez is almost exactly the difference between Mora and Fahey last year, and the other options are even worse. That is too big an advantage to throw away based on 12 ABs. I also think it's worth noting that Walker did pitch well: Ortiz had to foul off 3 two-strike pitches before he managed to hit a single.

I'm not saying that there is never a good reason to use batter/pitcher splits. I am saying that there are a ton of perfectly valid reasons for Perlozzo to put in Walker there: you can second guess the decision, but there are good arguments that it was the right one. It certainly pales compared to the other mistakes discussed in this thread.

There's a difference between general second-guessing and Monday-Morning-Quarterbacking, and pointing out obvious blunders. Arguing about putting in Walker against Ortiz is pretty obviously the first case, as opposed to most of this thread, which is about the second. It certainly doesn't deserve an "UGH!!!", and using lefty/lefty splits instead of pitcher/hitter matchups is hardly worth a "durrr". Perlozzo gets enough flak for real mistakes: he shouldn't be jumped on for making a reasonable decision.

Good points about Parrish...Yea, i don't agree that you can villify him for the Walker decision.

The Bradford/Manny decision was the real bad one IMO. Hell, bringing DCab out to begin with was the biggest issue.

[Tony-OH]

I agree, the move to Walker was the right move. He battled Ortiz and Ortiz won. It's baseball, sometimes a good batter is going to bloop a hit in.

As for Walker, I'm a bit suprised he came in and not Baez is such a crutial time in the game, especially when Ramirez has hit Bradford so well and Bradford has been the most hittable of all our relievers this season so far.

[oriole_way]

There's almost 0% chance that Perlozzo or any other manager would have done this in this era, but what do people think about possibly bringing in Chris Ray in that situation?

Yes, I realize it's the 7th inning. But it's a 1-1 game, two on, two out, and Ortiz is up with Ramirez on deck.

I'm not saying that Ray should finish the game out from that point. Just bring him into the game in this pivotal situation and maybe have him pitch the 8th.

Thoughts?