How to handle Matt Wieters Qualifying Offer

[Can_of_corn]

Do you think we would budget to sign them all?

Why wouldn't they?

[osfan83]

I think Wieters has the bigger gamble than the O's. If the O's did not a have strong alternative at catcher, Matt would be pretty secure in knowing that he will get a lot of playing time in 2016 regardless of his early production.

If Matt takes the QO and struggles in April, Joseph will get much more playing time, resulting in Matt continuing to lose value. If the O's are fighting for a post season spot after the break, and Joseph is playing as well or better than Matt, it would be a complete disaster for his future earnings.

Conclusion...there is no way he turns down a multi year offer worth more overall than the QO.

[ReclaimTheCrown]

I did a little digging, and here's what I came up with.

- All of the compensatory picks for losing a player who received a QO happen immediately after the first round.

- If a team loses multiple players with QOs, they pick consecutively in their slot, which is in reverse order of finish. In 2015, the Yankees would have had the first three slots, but they gave up all of them (and their first round pick) by signing QO'd FAs.

- In the last three drafts, three or four teams have sacrificed their unprotected first round pick to sign a QO'd FA. That means the free agent compensation round has begun after the 26th or 27th pick.

- Of the teams that finished with a worse record than the O's in 2015, only three teams stand to lose a QO'd FA: White Sox (Samardzija), Mariners (Iwakuma), and Padres (Upton). The Padres could get a second pick if they QO Kennedy.

Based on all of the above, we can guesstimate that the O's compensation picks will start with the overall 29th, 30th, or 31st pick. Which teams sign the O's QO'd FA will not effect that.

If the O's QO Davis, Chen, and Wieters, and all sign with other teams, the likely best case scenario (for Weams and others who want "all the picks") would be the O's getting the #15, 29, 30, & 31 picks of the draft. This position would be improved by if any of the White Sox, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, or Rays sign a QO'd FA.

Thanks for putting that together - sign me up. Could be a massively important draft for this organization, given some of the holes in our system.

Starts with QO'ing Matt. There is some risk involved, but I'd argue it's pretty minimal. Just do it.

[24fps]

I think Wieters has the bigger gamble than the O's. If the O's did not a have strong alternative at catcher, Matt would be pretty secure in knowing that he will get a lot of playing time in 2016 regardless of his early production.

If Matt takes the QO and struggles in April, Joseph will get much more playing time, resulting in Matt continuing to lose value. If the O's are fighting for a post season spot after the break, and Joseph is playing as well or better than Matt, it would be a complete disaster for his future earnings.

Conclusion...there is no way he turns down a multi year offer worth more overall than the QO.

If he accepts a QO, and I don't advocate giving him one in the first place, then they'll give him at least until June if not longer. The list of excuses to do so will be as long as your arm. If he struggles, he will have more than a fair opportunity to turn things around. You don't spend that kind of money only to give up early.

And if he turns into the best catcher in baseball? Well, then the Orioles won't look stupid even though by rights they deserve to.

[Can_of_corn]

Do you think we would budget to sign them all?

Lets see what it would look like.

Using the 2015 values:

15- $2,692,700

29- $1,944,800

30- $1,914,900

31- $1,885,000

The three second round picks will be around 3M.

That's roughly 12M for the first three rounds.

They spent 8.8 in 2009.

They spent over 9 in 2010.

Including Bundy's contract they spent over 10 in 2011.

I don't see a reason to think that they won't be given enough money to pay for the class.

[osfan83]

If he accepts a QO, and I don't advocate giving him one in the first place, then they'll give him at least until June if not longer. The list of excuses to do so will be as long as your arm. If he struggles, he will have more than a fair opportunity to turn things around. You don't spend that kind of money only to give up early.

And if he turns into the best catcher in baseball? Well, then the Orioles won't look stupid even though by rights they deserve to.

Oh I'm sure he will get opportunities...but rather than catch 5 or 6 games a week...he might catch 4 games a week. A catcher trying to get 4 year 50 million dollar contract needs to show he can catch almost every day. Catching under 100 games would be a big problem for him. There is no doubt in my mind that if he struggles in April, in May-July he could split time with Caleb...and once we get into August if he is not a clear upgrade over Joseph, he might play even less.

If you want to be one of the highest paid catchers in the game, you better play 125+ games behind the plate, and hit well above average. Right now there is hope that he can do that, because 2015 was a recover from injury year.....If he doesn't do that in 2016, there are no more excuses.

[weams]

Oh I'm sure he will get opportunities...but rather than catch 5 or 6 games a week...he might catch 4 games a week. A catcher trying to get 4 year 50 million dollar contract needs to show he can catch almost every day. Catching under 100 games would be a big problem for him. There is no doubt in my mind that if he struggles in April, in May-July he could split time with Caleb...and once we get into August if he is not a clear upgrade over Joseph, he might play even less.

If you want to be one of the highest paid catchers in the game, you better play 125+ games behind the plate, and hit well above average. Right now there is hope that he can do that, because 2015 was a recover from injury year.....If he doesn't do that in 2016, there are no more excuses.

I think that Boras can put a positive shine on the Wieters progress. For this off season. No way Matt will bet on himself.

[24fps]

Oh I'm sure he will get opportunities...but rather than catch 5 or 6 games a week...he might catch 4 games a week. A catcher trying to get 4 year 50 million dollar contract needs to show he can catch almost every day. Catching under 100 games would be a big problem for him. There is no doubt in my mind that if he struggles in April, in May-July he could split time with Caleb...and once we get into August if he is not a clear upgrade over Joseph, he might play even less.

If you want to be one of the highest paid catchers in the game, you better play 125+ games behind the plate, and hit well above average. Right now there is hope that he can do that, because 2015 was a recover from injury year.....If he doesn't do that in 2016, there are no more excuses.

$2 million a year Caleb Joseph doesn't take AB's away from $15.8 million a year Matt Wieters in May. If Wieters is still struggling in mid-June, then the team starts to hope his turns it around by the trade deadline so they can get something, anything. We're talking about a sum somewhere in the neighborhood of 15% of the payroll. You don't shrug that off.

Matt Wieters does need to show he can catch 5-6 times a week. The Orioles need to show that they're smart enough to let some other team provide him the opportunity.

[weams]

$2 million a year Caleb Joseph doesn't take AB's away from $15.8 million a year Matt Wieters in May. If Wieters is still struggling in mid-June, then the team starts to hope his turns it around by the trade deadline so they can get something, anything. We're talking about a sum somewhere in the neighborhood of 15% of the payroll. You don't shrug that off.

Matt Wieters does need to show he can catch 5-6 times a week. The Orioles need to show that they're smart enough to let some other team provide him the opportunity.

And yet, there is no such thing as a bad one year contract...

[24fps]

And yet, there is no such thing as a bad one year contract...

I'm sure PA will find that very persuasive, especially at year-end bonus time.

[weams]

I'm sure PA will find that very persuasive, especially at year-end bonus time.

They get holiday bonuses? I never heard that.

[El Gordo]

They get holiday bonuses? I never heard that.

They get holidays?

[SteveO]

I want the pick.

The farm system needs the pick and the accompanying slot money.

I'll take the slight risk he accepts the offer for the pick.

If he takes the QO and CD does not return which is the most likely scenario, then worst case, you put his butt out at 1B

I know you can't tamper in regards to the QO but I got imagine there are ways that the O's can indirectly get the message that if they can't sign CD and MW takes the QO, then MW at 1B is a possibility. That alone might get MW to refuse the QO and take a short deal elsewhere to establish value as a C if nobody offers big money.

[24fps]

Yes because putting the best team on the field necessarily has to take second place to punishing Matt Wieters for taking $15.8 million from the Baltimore Orioles after it was offered.

Does anyone honestly think that the even the greenest agent couldn't generate interest in Matt Wieters as a catcher in 2017 as long as he's healthy?

[BohKnowsBmore]

Why not? If he is almost certainly going to get better offers, why not get the pick? There is almost no risk, and were he to take the offer, he would only be making 4 M more than he is now, for one year, so no big f'ing deal. Why is this so hard for some people.

Agreed. Worst-case-scenario, he accepts, really not that bad of an outcome.

Some people seem to want the team to act completely irrationally out of some anger toward Wieters...

At lest that's how it seems to me.